ATR

Dividend Cushion Ratio Catches Another Dividend Cut

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Image Shown: Tupperware Brands Corporation suspended its dividend in November 2019, a pitfall investors could have avoided by utilizing Valuentum’s proprietary Dividend Cushion ratio. We plan to refresh our report on Tupperware after members get a chance to digest this analysis to better understand how to use the Dividend Cushion ratio. By Callum Turcan Our Dividend Cushion ratio can be a very useful tool for income seeking investors that wish to avoid payout cuts and the likely capital depreciation that follows. The Dividend Cushion ratio is based on our forecast of the firm’s future free cash flows over the next five full fiscal years, less its net debt or plus its net cash position, divided by its expected dividend obligations … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Containers & Packaging Industry

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Image: In 2015, Ball Corp started making Coca-Cola’s contour-shaped aluminum bottle in the US; source: Ball Corp. Structure of the Containers & Packaging Industry Firms in the containers and packaging industry are highly competitive and operate capital intensive businesses characterized by facilities that run continuously to remain profitable. Firms are exposed to the costs of aluminum, steel and other materials, though many can pass through price changes thanks to contractual provisions. Still, cost containment is critical, as increases in productivity, combined with capacity changes, can create significant pricing pressures. Metal, plastic, glass and flexible materials are essentially substitutes, and differentiation can be difficult to achieve. We’re generally neutral on the group. We’ve dropped coverage of stocks in the Containers & Packaging … Read more

Weyerhaeuser Faces Deteriorating Financials While Trying to Manage a Monstrous Debt Load

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Image Shown: Weyerhaeuser Company – Second quarter 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan One very interesting space of the REIT investing world includes the timber industry. Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) is a Seattle-based timber REIT that controls and owns ~12 million acres of timberland in the US, along with managing ~14 million acres in Canada via long-term licenses. The company commenced operations way back in 1900, and shares of WY yield 4.6% as of this writing. Most of Weyerhaeuser’s adjusted EBITDA comes from its ‘Timberlands’ and ‘Wood Products’ segments; however, its ‘Real Estate, Energy, and Natural Resources’ segment has become more relevant of late. Our fair value estimate for WY stands at $30 per share, roughly where Weyerhaeuser is trading at … Read more

Owens-Illinois’ Debt Load Is Daunting, We Are Staying Away From This Value Trap

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Image Source: Owens-Illinois Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Owens-Illinois Inc (OI) is a global manufacturer of glass packaging products, and we see the firm as a major beneficiary of the shift in consumer preferences towards non-plastic packaging options for health and environmental reasons. As of this writing, shares of OI yield 1.9% on a forward-looking basis after management initiated a new dividend policy that saw common quarterly payouts commence in 2019. While Owens-Illinois’ share price below $11/share, as it is at the time of this writing, appears cheap at first glance because shares are trading at a steep discount to our $17 per share fair value estimate, we caution that its technicals are telling another story. Investors were … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 19

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 19. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Water Works (AWK): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.455. AptarGroup (ATR): now $0.36 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.34. Celanese (CE): now $0.62 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.54. CIT (CIT): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Civista Bancshares (CIVB): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. CNX Midstream Partners (CNXM): now $0.3732 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3603. Cross … Read more

Brace for More Volatility

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Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August of last year. The markets have broken through key support levels, and now support has become resistance. Volatility remains heightened since the low-vol ETN blew up in February. This article is the introduction to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter, both of which will be released today due to the holiday January 1. By Brian Nelson, CFA Markets are facing big pressure on the trading session January 3. There’s more to the story than rising interest rates. There’s more to the story than the US-China trade war. There’s more to the story than concerns about the political environment. Price-agnostic (indexing and quant) trading, as I outline in … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 20

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 20. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 1st Source (SRCE): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. Ally Financial (ALLY): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. Antero Midstream GP (AMGP): now $0.125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.108. Antero Midstream Partners (AM): now $0.415 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.39. AptarGroup (ATR): now $0.34 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. Aqua America (WTR): now $0.219 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more