AAPL

Join the Conversation on the Market Plunge

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The Valuentum team shares its thoughts on the recent surge in volatility and collapse in interest rates amid a trade and currency war between two of the largest economies in the world, the US and China. No changes to the newsletter portfolios at this time. During the past few days, the US (SPY, DIA) and China (FXI, MCHI) have escalated a trade war, turning it into a currency war, the latter allowing its yuan to drop to lower levels against the U.S. dollar. The US has now labeled China a “currency manipulator,” and China has responded by suspending U.S. agricultural purchases. China is one of the largest buyers of U.S. agricultural goods. The Valuentum team builds on its previous conversation … Read more

Apple Breaking Out After Hours!

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Alert — Apple Breaking Out After Hours! Apple is a top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and is also a mid-weighted idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We added to Apple in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in December 2018, and we added to it yet again in April 2019. We continue to like shares and value them at ~$220 each. We expect a modest upward revision following the report. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Before we get started talking about Apple (AAPL), its fiscal third-quarter report released after the close, I wanted to alert you to our views on McDonald’s (MCD) and point to some of the great calls … Read more

Google, Intel — Yes!

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Google, Intel — Yes! — Let’s talk Google and Intel, remind you that we’ve removed Chipotle, Xilinx, and Boeing from the newsletter portfolios some time ago. I’ll talk a little about PayPal’s run higher and address some other themes, including contingent liabilities with J&J and 3M. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We don’t get everything right, of course, but lately, we’ve been really doing a great job getting the right ideas in front of you! I’m super proud of our team at Valuentum, and I hope that you are capitalizing on our research. — In a prior article, I talked about how Facebook (FB) and Visa (V), two top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, were on fire … Read more

New Highs! The December Call Has Been Well-Rewarded

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Image shown: Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Since inception, the newsletter portfolio has *never* had a constituent that experienced a dividend cut. We moved to weighting ranges beginning in 2018.   “The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.” – Warren Buffett (2018) By Brian Nelson, CFA While others are celebrating, we know better. This market could come down upon itself like nothing else. But for now. We breathe a sigh of relief. A company, Valuentum, that emphasizes the importance of timing and then delivers on that cold December 26 day to move to all-in in the newsletter portfolios is something remarkable (see image below). We cannot go back to … Read more

US Government Launches Anti-Trust War Against Alphabet, Apple, and Facebook

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Image shown: Technology shares took a beating during the trading session June 3. The DOJ and FTC are coming after Alphabet, Apple and Facebook, and we can’t help but feel the moves are in some ways politically motivated. Even if regulators decide to break up these companies, it doesn’t mean they will “confiscate” their businesses. Worst case scenario, perhaps pieces of their businesses would be auctioned off at arguably above-market prices, which could be a net positive. By Brian Nelson, CFA Nobody seemingly wants big “new” tech to win, and while such a dynamic may counterintuitive turn them into great long-term investments as a result, the stock-price behavior by some of the tech heavyweights, including Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Facebook … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

Apple Soars! Enterprise (Universal) Valuation Matters

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Image: Apple’s (AAPL) shares have soared since the beginning of this year. We have maintained our fair value estimate of $222 per share following its fiscal second-quarter results, released April 30.  — By Brian Nelson, CFA — On April 30, Apple reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results. Headlining the press release was that “services revenue reach(ed) a new all-time high of $11.5 billion.” As is the case of many services business, this revenue is higher-margin and recurring, and we see only upside as Apple’s ecosystem continues to flourish. The company’s installed base is now over 1.4 billion users. — We have maintained our fair value estimate for Apple’s shares of $222 following the release of the report. In fact, our fair value … Read more

Facebook Was Textbook, Intel Still About Fairly Valued After Weakness

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Image: Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook’s (FB) stock has advanced 56% since it bottomed in December. This is yet another textbook execution of the Valuentum Buying Index, a strong breakout of the downtrend on a significantly undervalued stock. See also the example with Apple (AAPL) on page 241 in Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. — In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: ABBV, AMZN, AAL, BMY, CHDN, CL, DHR, DLR, F, HON, INTC, SBUX — AbbVie (ABBV): The branded pharmaceutical business that was spun off from Abbott (ABT) continues to tread water, with shares in a steady downtrend since peaking at the beginning of 2018. We’re not interested in this company given the concentration risk of blockbuster drug Humira, and we generally … Read more

We Like Both Apple and Intel; Facebook’s Earnings Preview

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Apple and Intel have been prominent holdings in the simulated newsletter portfolios for some time now, and we’re interested in what Facebook has to say regarding recent developments in its upcoming earnings release. By Brian Nelson, CFA Apple (AAPL) is now a $205+ stock. I can barely contain my excitement. Remember when shares were laboring under $160 when we went to “fully invested” in December 2018? We also explained why we liked Apple quite a bit, despite the share price decline, not only because of its solid net cash position on the balance sheet but also its strong future expected free cash flow generation. We value shares at $218. We don’t chase product cycles that are already implicitly embedded in our free cash … Read more

This Chart Changes Everything Quant

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Image shown: Russell 3000 Value Divided by Russell 3000 Growth since September 1993, roughly one year after the publishing of the influential three-factor model. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I wrote up my views on whether quant value is giving value investing a bad name. You can read that note here. The chart above changes everything quant. The chart is not so much about value and growth as it is about highlighting the hazards of extrapolating anything quantitative finance into the future. For those that don’t know why this chart is important, let me provide some background. The entire field of factor investing has been built on the idea that ambiguous and sometimes impractical metrics and data can be used to carve out … Read more