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ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

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“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more

How To Think About Our Methodology In Action

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Image shown: Chipotle (CMG) has been one of our best calls so far in 2019. No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, BRK.B, CMG, CVS, FB, GE, JPM, KMI, PYPL, V, XLNX.  Let’s talk about the newsletter portfolios, some areas where we’ve made mistakes, and how some members use our services. By Brian Nelson, CFA I love it when I get questions because it shows the engagement of our members. I appreciate that very much. Though there are other considerations, of course, the Valuentum methodology is really quite simple: dividend growth considerations aside, we like undervalued ideas that are going up, and we generally won’t remove ideas that are overvalued until their technical/momentum indicators turn over. Here’s more about our … Read more

Apple Surging — Your Competition Is News-Driven and Failing

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No change to simulated newsletter portfolios. Clarification: On March 15, we sent out an alert for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio removing Novartis (NVS) and adding to the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), the latter now in the 5.5%-7.5% weighting bands, a combination of its prior weighting and the new additional weighting. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Whether it’s the 24-7 business news channel or the up-to-the-millisecond charting functionality that is causing it, your competition is news-driven. For example, we often receive a lot of questions on stocks at the time when they are falling precipitously. This is not the time to do the homework. It could simply be because the investor is holding the stock and wants an update, … Read more

Outperformance No Matter How You Measure It

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Image shown: The performance of Valuentum’s simulated Best Ideas Newsletter since the inaugural edition of the newsletter, July 13, 2011. We migrated to a weighting range format for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas beginning in 2018. At that time, Visa (V) was the top weighting by far at 8.6%. Shares of Visa have soared since, and other ideas haven’t been too shabby either! Source. Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is in a class by itself. Did you know that ~90% of active fund managers are underperforming their benchmarks over prolonged periods of time? The lack of volatility of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio had been driven by its massive average cash “weighting” of 25% during its history, something we … Read more

It Definitely Is a *Best* Ideas Newsletter!

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Image shown: Valuentum migrated to a weighting range format for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas beginning in 2018. This article was sent to members via email March 15. By Brian Nelson, CFA I was on social media the other day, and somebody was asking whether there would be more engagement/likes/appreciation from a picture of a cat than if someone were to put up great stock picks year after year. I think the poll came back in favor of the cat pictures! It’s an interesting time, and investors are tuning out great research because they simply don’t know what to listen to. They don’t know the real deal, and that’s why writing Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation was so important. It’s … Read more

DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn’t look like the timing could have been much better.  Changes to Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio Removing Novartis (NVS) -3.5%-5.5% Adding Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) +3.5%-5.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA The back half of 2018 was among the most exciting in Valuentum’s history. For one, we might have made one of our best “market-direction” calls since inception in practically calling the near-term bottom December 26. In hindsight, it’s clear the market had overreacted, but at the time, going to “fully … Read more

FB/FIZZ Methodologically Speaking and CMG, AAPL, BA!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Hope you are doing great. There a few things I wanted to put on your radar this evening. We’re going to talk the importance of having CFA charterholder research at your advisory practice. We’ll discuss Facebook (FB) and National Beverage (FIZZ) in the context of our methodology, and we’re going to touch on a couple things at Chipotle (CMG), Apple (AAPL) and Boeing (BA). Did you hear about the 737 MAX 8? Not good. I also wanted to remind you of the new 40/40 Goal (click here), of which we are already making progress (the book reviews keep coming in). Thank you! First, just a quick reminder on the 40/40 Goal. We now have 15 reviews … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

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Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more

Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!

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Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions. Dear members, I wanted to first of all welcome our new members. There have been a lot of new ones during the past few weeks. Thank you. The buzz might be coming from the new book launch, Value Trap. If you haven’t read the book yet, please do so here. Members can get the pdf digital download today at 25% off. For new members, reading this book is simply par for the course to get a feel for how we look at … Read more

A Great Couple Months! Apple Pops!

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Image shown: The markets continue to rally significantly since the near-term bottom in December. Here’s the email we sent to members December 26.  No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hope you are doing great. Believe it or not, the wind chill may have hit 50 or 60 below-zero in Woodstock, Illinois this morning. The polar vortex has most of the Midwest running for cover. Even the Chicago Bears have changed their name to the Chicago Polar Bears. Just kidding. In any case, the markets don’t mind. We continue to recover from the December lows, and we’ve been staying mighty busy. For starters, if you haven’t read Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, you’re not going to get as … Read more