WCG

Surveying Fourth Quarter Earnings at Health Care Firms

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The broader equity markets have been under pressure for much of January, and while it may be tempting to consider completely exiting stock investing for a time, we’re staying the course with both of our actively-managed portfolios. We had been expecting a contraction in price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples across the broader market (see our outlook here), and the performance thus far in 2014 has not been surprising. In case you may have missed it, I sent out some very important thoughts over the weekend to keep in mind as uncertainty and volatility increase through the course of 2014: Stay focused on @Valuentum portfolio holdings (best ideas), #asset allocation (cash) in portfolios and #prudence in allocating new capital. — Brian Nelson, CFA … Read more

Evaluating the Industry Structure of Managed Care Organizations

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Structure of the Managed Care Industry The managed care organization (MCO) and health insurance/benefits industry is concentrated, competitive, and still consolidating. The largest publicly-traded MCO by members is WellPoint (WLP), which serves more than 66.5 million individuals through its health plans, but UnitedHealth (UNH), Aetna (AET), Humana (HUM), Cigna (CI), Centene (CNC), Health Net (HNT), and WellCare (WCG) are other key players in the industry. Revenues are generated primarily from insurance premiums and, to a lesser extent, from administrative fees and net investment income. Expenses are dominated by benefit expense (the cost of health care services), though overhead (selling, general and administrative expense) is also a material portion of the cost structure of the group. Operating margins for some constituents have hit … Read more

Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed

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Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades.  Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more

8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed

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8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more