WBA

In the News: Inflation, Walgreens, SPACs/IPOs, and Marine Insured Losses

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA Inflation Remains Subdued Based on Latest PCE Reading On March 29, the Fed’s preferred metric with respect to its inflation assessment, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, was released and came in at a 2.8% year-over-year increase, excluding food and energy, for the month of February, roughly in line with expectations. The Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle during 2022 seems to have been enough to get inflation back to reasonable levels, in our view, and we view the reading as a positive one as the Fed continues to work to get inflation back to 2.0%. The Fed is also aware that it doesn’t want to overshoot inflation to the downside (below 2.0%), so the reading for … Read more

You Already Own Whatever Your Investment Will Pay You in Dividends

by

“Business owners across the world know that their business is not more or less valuable because they paid themselves a higher distribution this quarter.” – Brian Nelson, CFA Image Source: Images Money Stocks are generally valued on the present value of all their future free cash flows, which already include future dividend payments. A company’s dividend policy may impact an investor’s eagerness to pay a higher price for shares on the basis of a higher yield, but the dividend is a symptom of future free cash flows (and therefore intrinsic value), not a driver behind it. where A (t) is an Enterprise Free Cash Flow (1) at year t,                 B (0) is a Total Debt at time 0,                 … Read more

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?

by

Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key … Read more

3 Substantial Benefits of Dividend Growth Investing

by

Dear members: There are three primary benefits of a well-executed dividend growth strategy, one that is carried out with prudence and care and one that pays careful attention to the intrinsic value of the stock and its critical cash-based components. Albert Einstein is reported to have called compound interest the “eighth wonder of the world,” but dividend growth investing has the potential to offer long-term investors so much more! Let’s explain. 1) Reinvested Dividends Compound Over Time Over the past decade, I have grown to appreciate the compounding dynamics of reinvested dividends on appreciating stocks even more than historical studies have revealed. The strategy of dividend growth investing not only benefits from the reinvestment of dividends into the purchase of … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 5

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 5. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          ABM Industries (ABM): now $0.225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Alamo (ALG): now $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Bank OZK (OZK): now $0.38 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Barloworld Limited (BRRAY): now $0.0982 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.0624. Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY): now $0.158 per share annual dividend, was $0.145. Biloxi Marsh Land (BLMC): now $0.125 per share annual … Read more

It’s All About Free Cash Flow – Walgreens Cuts Its Payout

by

Image: Walgreens’ shares have been under consistent pressure for years, and a turnaround is not guaranteed. By Brian Nelson, CFA Back in early December, we said the following about Walgreens (WBA): Walgreens is a household name, but its wheeling and dealing over the past few years has created a convoluted situation that can best be observed by the company’s deteriorating operating cash flow. As shown in the company’s cash flow statement…capital expenditures are eating up a high percentage of operating cash, and its fiscal 2023 free cash flow — as measured by cash flow from operations less all capital spending — is now materially below that of cash dividends paid. The firm also issued guidance recently that came in below … Read more

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA 1. The Fed has signaled that rate cuts could start with inflation at a 2 handle (2 point something) and not at exactly 2.0%. That means that the Fed may become anticipatory to prevent overshooting to the downside with inflation. We see this as positive for long-duration equities, particularly those whose free cash flow generation is robust in the out-years, inclusive of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. 2. Unemployment is at structural lows of 3.7%. Employers are working hard to keep talent on board, and with each paycheck, employees are pumping more and more money into the stock market via retirement accounts. This tailwind remains a stiff one and will … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Our Top Stocks for 2024

by

Video: Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Nelson walks through the success of Valuentum’s newsletter suite, the state of the economy and markets, and offers his favorite idea for each sector. Tune into this must-watch video. ———- It’s Here!  The Second Edition of Value Trap! Order today!   —– Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, RSP, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE, DIA, RSP, SCHG, QQQ, and VOO. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies.  Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock … Read more

A Note on Valuation — Low P/E Stocks with High Dividend Yields

by

“But carrying low valuation parameters is far from synonymous with “underpriced.” It’s easy to be seduced by the former, but a stock with a low p/e ratio, for example, is likely to be a bargain only if its current earnings and recent earnings growth are indicative of the future. Just pursuing low valuation metrics can lead you to so-called “value traps”: things that look cheap on the numbers but aren’t, because they have operating weaknesses or because the sales and earnings creating those valuations can’t be replicated in the future.” – Howard Marks, Something of Value (2021) By Brian Nelson, CFA I was reminded of Howard Marks’ 2021 memo, “Something of Value,” after a few readers expressed interest in low … Read more

Use Both the Dividend Cushion Ratio (Probability of a Dividend Cut) and the Qualitative Dividend Ratings in Your Assessment of the Payout

by

The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. By Brian Nelson, CFA Dividend investing has probably never been as popular as the past couple years. Remember, however, the dividend is capital appreciation that otherwise would have been achieved had the dividend not been paid. If you had a stock that was $10, and it paid a $1 dividend, you don’t have a $10 stock and … Read more