SWKS

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions. Q: What Is Valuentum? A: In short, it is a strategy that combines the concepts of value and momentum within individual stocks. We measure value through the cash-based sources of intrinsic value – net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow. We measure momentum rather simply, generally via relative strength or other technical and momentum indicators. We like stocks with strong net cash positions on the balance sheet, ones that are generating tremendous free cash flow, and have strong secular growth prospects such that the prospect for expectations of free cash flow can continue to be ratcheted higher. Today, most Valuentum stocks are included in the stylistic area … Read more

Apple’s Big “Wonderlust” Event Is Business as Usual

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Image Source: Apple By Brian Nelson, CFA On September 12, Apple Inc. (AAPL) hosted its widely-anticipated “Wonderlust” event. The market was anticipating several new products, and Apple delivered. The firm’s iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15, Apple Watch Series 9, and Apple Watch Ultra 2 will go a long way to retaining share in smartphones and wearable devices, but the company opted to leave prices unchanged. Many had been expecting a price increase, but we’re not reading too much into Apple’s decision to leave them unchanged, given economic uncertainty in the U.S., Huawei’s release of its latest phone (the Mate 60 Pro) and rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China. The iPhone 15 Pro frankly looks awesome, and it is … Read more

Not Worried About Global PC Demand Weakness

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Image Source: IDC By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 9, International Data Corporation (IDC) issued preliminary findings for the first quarter of 2023 for global personal computer (PC) shipments in its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results were a bit surprising, with the firm noting that “weak demand, excess inventory, and a worsening macroeconomic climate were all contributing factors for the precipitous drop in shipments of traditional PCs during the first quarter of 2023.” According to the IDC report, global PC shipments fell 29% to 56.9 million compared to the first quarter of 2022. Apple (AAPL) experienced the biggest year-over-year percentage decline, where shipments fell more than 40%. Dell Technologies (DELL), Lenovo (LNVGY) (LNVGF) and ASUS experienced declines … Read more

Taiwan Semiconductor Experiences Revenue Weakness in March

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Image: Taiwan Semiconductor’s shares have rallied nicely since the beginning of November of last year. By Brian Nelson, CFA Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported March revenue on April 10. During the month, net revenue dropped nearly 11% on a sequential basis and more than 15% on a year-over-year basis from March 2022. Though the top-line weakness in the month was somewhat of a surprise, the company’s revenue advanced 3.6% during the first quarter of this year. The Taiwanese chip fabricator is an idea for the risk-seeking investor that is looking for exposure to the semiconductor space. The company pays a decent dividend yield, and the high end of our fair value estimate for shares stands at $90 per share. Taiwan Semiconductor’s … Read more

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023

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Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year’s Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers! Transcript President of Investment Research Brian Nelson: Happy Holidays everyone! I hope that you are enjoying this special time of year with family and friends, and I wish you all a wonderful 2023! I just wanted to take a few minutes to recap … Read more

Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong

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Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe By Brian Nelson, CFA Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook seemingly have worked out a plan for Apple to keep advertising on the Twitter platform after what looked to be a temporary pause by the iPhone maker. Though the news is immaterial to our thesis on Apple in any respect, it was good to see the two tech giants work whatever differences they had out. Certainly, a fallout between Musk and Cook would not be a good thing for the tech sector and innovation, more broadly, as the two wield large influences across Silicon … Read more

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership

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In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance–despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening! Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” … Read more

ASML Launches Big Buyback; Lithography Systems Well Positioned for Demand Growth

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Image: ASML has been one of the most successful semiconductor companies thanks in part to the firm’s advanced lithography systems that continue to meet customer demands for size and cost efficiencies. Image Source: ASML By Brian Nelson, CFA ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is one of the most prolific innovators in the semiconductor industry. The firm provides chipmakers with hardware, software and services to make patterns on silicon with lithography, a vital system in the chip-manufacturing process that increases chip value while lowering costs. The resolution of ASML’s lithography systems contributes to the ever-shrinking nature of transistors and microchips needed for ongoing industry innovation. Smaller and smaller chips save on energy, cost and time, and the wavelength of the light used … Read more

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print

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Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also … Read more

ALERT: Replacing Qualcomm with McDonald’s in Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio

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Image: The semiconductor space is experiencing a number of headwinds, and while we still like Qualcomm’s long-term prospects, we’re replacing it with McDonald’s in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Qualcomm By Brian Nelson, CFA The technology industry has been wrecked during 2022, and the semiconductor space has been no exception. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down ~41% so far this year, as many of its top holdings, including wireless technology giant Qualcomm (QCOM) languish. As we walk through our views in this work, please note that Qualcomm’s fiscal third-quarter 2022 is calendar second quarter and its fiscal fourth-quarter 2022 is calendar third quarter. We recently highlighted our expectations for near-term weakness across the semiconductor space in … Read more