SPY

HCA’s Latest Results Indicate Healthcare Providers Are Holding Up Better Than Expected

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Image Source: HCA Healthcare Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 Earnings Press Release By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has had a devastating impact on the financial performance of healthcare providers (operators of hospitals and other medical facilities) due to the decline in the number of elective surgeries performed. Please note elective surgeries tend to be more lucrative for healthcare providers than the other services they provide, generally speaking. Elective surgeries in many US states were indefinitely postponed when the pandemic first hit. In late March, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (‘CARES Act’) which included $100 billion in emergency funding for hospitals and healthcare providers to mitigate the financial blow from the pandemic … Read more

Second Quarter Earnings Roundup

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The figure above shows the performance of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio from inception May 17, 2011, through December 15, 2017, relative to its declared benchmark, the S&P 500 (SPY), on an apples-to-apples basis, with dividends collected but not reinvested for both the newsletter portfolio and the SPY, as reported in the monthly newsletter. The simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio outperformed the S&P 500, including reinvested dividends in the benchmark, since inception (May 17, 2011) and since the inaugural release of the newsletter (July 13, 2011) through the end of the measurement period (December 15, 2017). The results are hypothetical and do not represent returns that an investor actually earned. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Valuentum … Read more

Realty Income Updates Investors

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Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – July 2020 Institutional Investor Presentation By Callum Turcan The real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Realty Income Corporation (O) recently provided investors with some key financial and operational updates. Realty Income primarily invests in single-tenant commercial properties in the US, Puerto Rico, and the UK, and we include shares of O as a holding with a modest weighting in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Most of Realty Income’s tenants have continued to pay rent during the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, though tenants in select categories have been unwilling or unable to pay during these challenging times. In particular, Realty Income’s movie theater tenants did not pay rent in June or the second quarter of 2020, … Read more

Macy’s Builds Liquidity and Cuts Costs to Stay Afloat

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Image Shown: Our fair value estimate range for shares of Macy’s Inc is quite wide at $1-$9 per share, relatively speaking, as the retailer’s outlook remains troubled due to its large net debt load and the ongoing pandemic. In the event Macy’s can reopen its physical stores in the near-term while maintaining recent gains seen at its digital operations, its revenues might rebound convincingly. Should Macy’s be forced to close its physical stores again for a prolonged period of time to contain the ongoing pandemic, that would likely drain its recently enhanced liquidity position and put a tremendous amount of stress of its financials going forward. Thus Macy’s has a relatively wide range of fair value outcomes, and represents the … Read more

Darden Restaurants Adapts to Survive

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Image Source: Darden Restaurants Inc – Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 25, the owner of the Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen restaurant chain brands Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) reported fourth quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 31, 2020) that matched consensus top-lines estimates and beat consensus bottom-line estimates. Please note the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 included an extra week versus the same period the previous fiscal year. Darden Restaurants saw its GAAP revenues drop by 43% year-over-year which led to the firm generating a large GAAP net loss of $0.5 billion last fiscal quarter as the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) took its toll on the company’s operations. Background As … Read more

Update on Dell Technologies and VMware

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Image Source: VMware Inc – First Quarter Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Dell Technologies Inc (DELL) and VMware Inc (VMW) are back in the news as the WSJ recently reported the former is considering spinning off its enormous equity stake in the latter. Back in September 2016, Dell completed its ~$67 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of EMC which gave Dell a controlling equity stake in VMware (and a mountain of net debt in the process). As of January 31, 2020, Dell owned approximately 80.9% of VMware’s outstanding equity. Dell can spin off its equity stake in VMware tax-free after a five-year waiting period, though Dell would need to wait until September 2021 before that could occur (given when … Read more

Kroger Fighting for Market Share in the Online US Grocery Business

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Image Source: The Kroger Company – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report By Callum Turcan On June 18, The Kroger Company (KR) released its first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 23, 2020) that beat both top- and bottom-line estimates. Comparable store sales (excluding fuel) grew by 19% year-over-year as consumers flocked to its various grocery stores and supermarkets (under brands such as Fred Meyer, Fry’s Marketplace, Pick ‘n Save, and others) to stock up on consumer staples products as the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) spread across North America. Kroger’s digital sales surged 92% year-over-year last fiscal quarter as curbside and home delivery options have become increasingly popular during the pandemic. Shares of KR yield ~2.0% and are trading in the upper bound … Read more

Gap Buys Itself Some Time

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Image Shown: An overview of Gap Inc’s net sales by brand. Image Source: Gap Inc – First Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 4, Gap Inc (GPS) reported first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 2, 2020) that missed both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of GPS have gotten crushed due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic as consumers (particularly those in the US) have spent far less on discretionary goods (like apparel) over the past several months. Combined with the negative impact of physical store closures and the lack of a meaningful online presence, Gap shares sank as its outlook turned dire. Though Gap operates stores in over 40 countries, please note … Read more

Turbulent Fiscal Fourth Quarter Aside, Oracle Paints a Promising Outlook for Fiscal 2021

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Image Source: Oracle Corporation – Oracle Database Update September 2019 Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 16, Oracle Corp (ORCL) reported fourth quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 31, 2020) that beat consensus bottom-line estimates and missed consensus top-line estimates, though there is some noise given the turbulence created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Additionally, Oracle declared a $0.24 per share quarterly dividend that is slated to get paid out in July, which was flat on a sequential basis. Shares of ORCL yield ~1.8% as of this writing, and we continue to like the idea as a holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. While shares of ORCL sold off on June 17, management painted a more optimistic … Read more

Exxon Mobil Puts on a Brave Face

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Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – November 2019 Guyana IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Near-term oil prices and most importantly, the oil price futures curve, have improved materially since just a couple of months ago when it looked like the sky was falling. For the first time ever, WTI turned negative in April 2020 for physical deliveries due May 2020 of light sweet oil to Cushing, Oklahoma, as storage options were limited (and arguably, many speculators had jumped into the market not fully aware of the risks they were taking on). Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has seen its share price recover considerably since the drop, though we caution that management’s commitment to the dividend will prove a hard task if … Read more