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Not Expecting Much From Consumer Staples Stocks

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Within the discounted cash-flow [DCF] modeling process (also known as enterprise valuation, or the free cash flow to the firm model), there are two primary sources of cash-based intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and future expected enterprise free cash flows. The sum of net cash on the balance sheet and the present value of future enterprise free cash flows divided by weighted average diluted shares outstanding results in a fair value estimate per share, which then can be divided by earnings to arrive at a value-derived price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Only when this value-derived P/E ratio is compared to the price-observed P/E ratio—the latter calculated as price divided by estimated earnings–can a company then be … Read more

Subscribe to the Valuentum ESG Newsletter!

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*BONUS* Included in the ESG Newsletter is an ESG-focused simulated newsletter portfolio! Subscribe today. ESG Newsletter $1,000.00 Pay now “The investing landscape has changed dramatically over the past decade and part of that transformation has involved US households placing a much greater emphasis on “ethical” and “sustainable” investing strategies. A decade ago, funds managed with Environmental, Social, and Governance (‘ESG’) standards in mind were a small part of the investing universe at-large, but that is no longer the case. Data from Morningstar notes that US funds considered “sustainable” reported $21.5 billion in net inflows during the first quarter of 2021, up from $20.5 billion in net inflows in the fourth quarter of 2020 and roughly five times greater than the … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 14

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 14. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports, please use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Aon (AON): now $0.615 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.560. Agree Realty (ADC): now $0.243 per share monthly dividend, was $0.240. Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CHP.UN:CA): now CAD 0.0625 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.0617. CSW Industrials (CSWI): now $0.19 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. Mexico Energy (MXC): now $0.10 per share special dividend. Proctor & Gamble (PG): now … Read more

Fed Winning the Fight Against Inflation, Food-at-Home Prices Easing

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Image: CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted. The 12-month percent change in the pace of inflation for all items has fallen from north of 9% in June 2022 to 5% in March 2023. Image Source: BLS By Brian Nelson, CFA The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on April 12, and it showed that the Fed is winning its fight against inflation. The CPI-U rose just 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, down 0.3 percentage points from the increase in February. During the past 12 months, the all-items index has advanced 5.0% before any seasonal adjustments, a level that is still higher than the Fed’s long-term target, but not one indicative of … Read more

Legacy of Benjamin Graham

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Legacy of Benjamin Graham: The Original Adjunct Professor. This film, brought to you by the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing, Columbia Business School, premiered on February 1, 2013 at the 16th Annual Columbia Student Investment Management Association conference. Produced by: Louisa Serene Schneider. Shot & Edited by: Christina Choe. Video Source: HeilburnnCenter Tickerized for companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. ———- It’s Here!  The Second Edition of Value Trap! Order today!   —– Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, RSP, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE, DIA, and RSP. Some of the other securities written about in this article may … Read more

General Mills Experiencing Tremendous Pricing Power, Positive Elasticities

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Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA Cereal maker General Mills (GIS) continues to flex its pricing power. The company’s third-quarter results for its fiscal 2023, released March 23, showed a company that is raising prices almost at will and driving tremendous adjusted operating profit expansion, while organic pound volume remains essentially flat. The company continues to optimize its revenue model as it forgoes volume expansion in favor of pricing growth, and we would expect further price increases across its product line-up for some time. With adjusted operating profit surging, price elasticities remain in its favor, much to the detriment of the cash-strapped consumer, which can only expect more food-at-home inflation. Shares of General Mills yield ~2.5% at the … Read more

How the Payment of a Dividend Impacts Intrinsic Value Estimation

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  “Dividends are a transfer of cash to the shareholders that the shareholders already owned.” By Brian Nelson, CFA Many investors use the strategy of dividend growth investing as a means to generate increasing income in their retirement portfolios to stay ahead of inflation, or as a means to grow an income stream in the decades before retirement. Though we think such a strategy has tremendous merit, we think it’s important for readers to understand the mechanics of how a cash dividend payment impacts the valuation (intrinsic worth) of a company. How the Payment of a Dividend Impacts Valuation (Intrinsic Worth) In this article, let’s walk through the valuation adjustments we perform when a company pays a dividend to hammer … Read more

Walmart Warns: “Prices Are Still High and There Is Considerable Pressure on the Consumer”

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  Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA As we wrote in “The Fed ‘Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” in early January, the trade-down trends that we’re seeing in big box retail and with groceries, more generally, are interesting. Inflation started to accelerate with food-at-home prices moving aggressively higher in early 2022, and consumers have been trading down to better value. It probably wasn’t until egg prices soared, however — driven in part by a shortage of egg laying chickens (not just inflationary pressures) – that tipped everyday consumers to budget more cautiously, and the largest big box retailer in Walmart (WMT) is seeing this impact first-hand. Here’s what’s happening on the ground, per Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon on the … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Recession Resistant Industry

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Dividend Yield: Estimated on a forward-looking annualized basis. VBI: The Valuentum Buying Index, a timeliness indicator that overlays a price-to-fair-value estimate consideration. Fair Value Estimate: Derived by Valuentum’s enterprise valuation process. Dividend Cushion ratio: A ratio assessing the health of the dividend (the higher, the better). Data as of the date of this article. Individual company reports may have been updated subsequent to the publishing of this article, so please download a company’s stock and dividend report for its latest information and data. Note: The data in the tables of each of the below companies’ respective stock pages is updated the weekend after the publishing of this update. Please click on a company name below to view the corresponding equity … Read more

Consumers Feeling the Pinch; S&P 500 Bounces Off Technical Resistance; Elasticities Breaking Down for Staples Stocks

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is the latest big tech company to announce big job cuts. The company that is still working to close its deal with Activision (ATVI) announced that it would slash 10,000 jobs, or about 4.5% of its workforce. The unemployment rate in the U.S. stands at just 3.5%, as recorded in December 2022, so even though we’re witnessing quite a number of layoffs in Silicon Valley, the labor markets are still very, very healthy. Those being laid off are finding jobs rather quickly, too. According to the WSJ, “about 79% of workers recently hired after a tech-company layoff or termination landed their new job within three months of starting their search.” Businesses have been … Read more