GILD

In the News: Dividend Growth Still on Hold at General Mills After Strong Quarter, Avoiding FedEx and BMW After Warnings on Bottom-Line Weakness, and a Biogen as a Prime Example of Risks to Avoid in Biotech

by

General Mills raised bottom-line and free cash flow conversion expectations for fiscal 2019, but we’re not interested in shares as it continues to prioritize deleveraging over dividend growth in a slow growth environment. International corporations continue to weigh the impact of slowing macroeconomic activity and global trade tensions, as evidenced by FedEx and BMW slashing bottom-line expectations, and shares of Biogen have been rocked by news that it terminated two late-stage studies of a key Alzheimer’s treatment. By Kris Rosemann General Mills Turns in Positive Organic Sales Growth and Operating Margin Expansion Food products giant General Mills (GIS) turned in better-than-expected results in its fiscal 2019 third quarter report, released March 20, as organic sales growth advanced 1% on a … Read more

DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?

by

Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn’t look like the timing could have been much better.  Changes to Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio Removing Novartis (NVS) -3.5%-5.5% Adding Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) +3.5%-5.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA The back half of 2018 was among the most exciting in Valuentum’s history. For one, we might have made one of our best “market-direction” calls since inception in practically calling the near-term bottom December 26. In hindsight, it’s clear the market had overreacted, but at the time, going to “fully … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

by

Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more

Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!

by

Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions. Dear members, I wanted to first of all welcome our new members. There have been a lot of new ones during the past few weeks. Thank you. The buzz might be coming from the new book launch, Value Trap. If you haven’t read the book yet, please do so here. Members can get the pdf digital download today at 25% off. For new members, reading this book is simply par for the course to get a feel for how we look at … Read more

Changes to the Newsletter Portfolios (Best Ideas & Dividend Growth)

by

Image shown: In our December 26 note to members, we moved the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested” from a cash “allocation” of 30% and 20%, respectively at the high end of the range. It has worked out wonderfully as we keep our finger on the put option trigger in case price-agnostic trading and heightened volatility rears its ugly ahead again, as it did in December 2018. Summary of Changes to Newsletter Portfolios Best Ideas Newsletter: Remove Gilead Sciences (GILD) Add Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) at 2.5%-4% weighting Dividend Growth Newsletter: Remove Xilinx (XLNX) Remove Gilead Sciences Add Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF at 2.5%-3.5% weighting Add Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) at 2.5%-3.5% weighting By Kris … Read more

In The News: European Growth Concerns, Continued Weakness in Generic Pharma, Johnson & Johnson Enters Robotics Market

by

Let’s take a look at some of the top stories from February 13. Concerns over industrial production in Europe may present challenges to economic growth, generic pharma companies face material competition, and Johnson & Johnson gets into the robotics market. By Kris Rosemann Equities continue to benefit from optimism surrounding US-China trade talks, as President Trump recently stated a willingness to let the March 2 trade conflict resolution deadline slide, but industrial production in Europe, which fell at the greatest sequential rate since 2009 in December 2018, has caught the eye of many a market observer. Demand softness from China (FXI) is playing a role, and the usual suspects such as Greece, Italy (EWI), and uncertainty over Brexit (EWU) continue … Read more

Gilead Sciences’ Top Line to Remain Muted

by

Image shown: Gilead holds an impressive share of the US HIV market, both on an infected and diagnosed basis. Source: Gilead Sciences fourth quarter presentation. Simulated newsletter portfolio idea Gilead Sciences continues to battle intensifying competition in the HCV market, which has been able to offset its strength in HIV. Top-line growth has been nothing short of elusive, and management does not expect to return to material growth in the near term. By Kris Rosemann Shares of simulated newsletter portfolio idea Gilead Sciences (GILD) faced a bit of selling pressure following the February 4 release of its fourth quarter results, as it continues to be unable to drive top-line growth. HCV product sales continued to drop precipitously in the period … Read more

Consider Selling Discipline = Systematic, Forward-looking, Repeatable

by

Image shown: An illustration of Valuentum’s call on Kinder Morgan during 2015. You can read about this in more detail in the Preface of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. For a consider-selling discipline to be successful, it must be systematic, forward-looking and repeatable. The Valuentum process worked equally well with General Electric during 2017 (image later in note). No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone! The markets took a shellacking yesterday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) falling over 300 points during the trading session January 22. Had there not been a near-100 point leap in the Dow during the past few minutes of trading, the fallout may have been worse. Most are … Read more

Conference Call Coming Soon, Catch Up This Weekend

by

Image shown: The markets continue to rally significantly since the near-term bottom in December. Here’s the email we sent to members December 26.  No changes to simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (contact us if you missed the latest notification regarding the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio). This article was sent to members via email January 19. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. Conference Call Monday, January 28, 11amET/10amCT. We’ll talk about website navigation, how to use the stock and dividend reports, and dig deep into our capital-appreciation and dividend growth methodology. Details to follow, but add this date/time to your calendar. Read what some of our members have … Read more

Markets Continue to Recover

by

Image shown: The markets continue to rally significantly since the near-term bottom in December. The decision to move the cash “weightings” to zero in the simulated portfolios of the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter during the trading session December 27 has been quite rewarding for members that have been following our research and newsletters. The S&P 500 SPDR. No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios. This article was sent to members via email January 18. The original email can be accessed via the link that follows this article. Brian Nelson, CFA The S&P 500 (SPY) continues to march higher in this young 2019, and we trust many of you are pleased with what is turning into quite a nice … Read more