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Best Idea Ancestry.com Surges on Buyout Rumors

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This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/642181-private-equity-facebook-most-likely-buyers-of-ancestry-com Best Ideas portfolio holding Ancestry.com () surged Wednesday on a report from Bloomberg that said the firm is working with famous technology banker Frank Quattrone’s Qatalyst Partners to sell itself to unlock shareholder value. We believe the company is significantly undervalued, and think the move, if confirmed, makes a lot of sense, given the market’s reluctance to place an appropriate value on the firm’s shares. Ancestry.com, in our view, should get a substantial premium over its current price if it were sold either to a strategic bidder or to a private-equity consortium, given the firm’s tremendous cash-flow generation and negligible debt. Our fair value estimate for the firm rests in the high-$40s, and we would not be surprised … Read more

5 Years Strong!

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Image Source: Andy Maguire By Brian Nelson, CFA This month was an important one for our investment research firm, Valuentum, and its flagship newsletter, the Best Ideas Newsletter. The June 2016 edition means that we have now surpassed the 5-year anniversary of the inception of this newsletter’s portfolio (page 8). This is a critical time horizon that we and many others believe is a good one to assess the quality of any money manager. Money managers can be lucky or unlucky over very short periods of time, as in the case of perhaps a 12-24 month period, but those that can generate and retain outperformance over a 5-year period and longer typically are doing a lot of things right, even … Read more

8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed

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8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more

ALERT: Facebook at All-Time Closing Highs

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“I’m completely baffled by Facebook’s pricing action, and I still think this one will again return to new highs.” — Nelson, December 20, 2018, with shares trading at ~$130 each. Shares of Facebook registered an all-time closing high of $218.30 per share January 9, 2020. By Brian Nelson, CFA We lost so much business at Valuentum because of our call on Facebook. Let’s talk about it. Facebook (FB) has been one of our best calls since it was added as an idea to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Facebook was first added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio in late January 2016, and on a price-basis, it has more than doubled since then, outerperforming the S&P (SPY) by about 40 percentage points. … Read more