DIS

Disney’s 5-Year Returns Have Been Pitiful

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Image: Since the beginning of 2018, Disney’s shares have fallen, while the S&P 500 has surged. Though we liked the company more recently, we no longer include shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 10, Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported improved second-quarter results for fiscal 2023 that showed solid double-digit consolidated revenue growth and substantial cash flow improvement on a year-over-year basis. Though the market had previously shown some love for shares upon CEO Bob Iger’s return, investors are now having to face reality. The advertising market remains difficult for linear television these days, and subscription growth in the streaming market has become even more challenging. Our fair value estimate for Disney stands at … Read more

Paramount Global Cuts Payout, Dividend Cushion Ratio Caught Another!

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Image Source: Paramount Global By Brian Nelson, CFA The Dividend Cushion ratio is not a perfect predictor of dividend health and the risks of a dividend cut, but it’s a pretty darn good one. On May 4, Paramount Global (PARA) missed expectations for its first-quarter 2023 results on both the top and bottom line and cut its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per quarter (was $0.24). The company’s Dividend Cushion ratio, which considers its balance sheet as well as future expectations of free cash flow relative to future expected cash dividends paid, was -2.5 (negative 2.5). Any ratio below 1 indicates growing risk to the health of the dividend, while any materially negative (below 0) ratio indicates severe risk of a … Read more

1Q 2023 Earnings Coming in Better Than Feared Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve been receiving questions about the companies that we are looking to add to the Best Ideas Newsletter to replace the ones we recently removed, and I can say that we’re strongly considering adding Booking Holding (BKNG) and adding to the existing “position” in Chipotle (CMG) following their first-quarter 2023 results. We recently raised our fair value estimate for Booking Holding significantly (now $3,091; was $2,147 per share), and we expect a huge fair value increase at Chipotle in the coming weeks. Booking Holding will report its first-quarter 2023 earnings in early May, while Chipotle will report first-quarter 2023 results on April 25. We have several other ideas in mind to add to the Best Ideas … Read more

Legacy of Benjamin Graham

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Legacy of Benjamin Graham: The Original Adjunct Professor. This film, brought to you by the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing, Columbia Business School, premiered on February 1, 2013 at the 16th Annual Columbia Student Investment Management Association conference. Produced by: Louisa Serene Schneider. Shot & Edited by: Christina Choe. Video Source: HeilburnnCenter Tickerized for companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. ———- It’s Here!  The Second Edition of Value Trap! Order today!   —– Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, RSP, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE, DIA, and RSP. Some of the other securities written about in this article may … Read more

Disney: Iger’s Back, Peltz Concedes, Thousands of Jobs Gone, Dividend Coming Back Soon

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  Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA The Walt Disney Company (DIS) has had a rough go at it of late. The firm suffered tremendously during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced consumers to stay at home and its parks to close. The firm eliminated its dividend to shore up cash, and recently-ousted CEO Bob Chapek may have sent the company on a crash course with Netflix (NFLX). Former CEO Bob Iger is back, however, and activist Nelson Peltz has conceded that Disney is working to get back on track. With 7,000 jobs on the chopping block and a still-yet-to-be-reinstated dividend, Disney’s wounds have yet to heal, and we remain skeptical the entertainment and media giant will … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Discretionary Spending Industry

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Dividend Yield: Estimated on a forward-looking annualized basis. VBI: The Valuentum Buying Index, a timeliness indicator that overlays a price-to-fair-value estimate consideration. Fair Value Estimate: Derived by Valuentum’s enterprise valuation process. Dividend Cushion ratio: A ratio assessing the health of the dividend (the higher, the better). Data as of the date of this article. Individual company reports may have been updated subsequent to the publishing of this article, so please download a company’s stock and dividend report for its latest information and data. Note: The data in the tables of each of the below companies’ respective stock pages is updated the weekend after the publishing of this update. Please click on a company name below to view the corresponding equity … Read more

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023

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Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year’s Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers! Transcript President of Investment Research Brian Nelson: Happy Holidays everyone! I hope that you are enjoying this special time of year with family and friends, and I wish you all a wonderful 2023! I just wanted to take a few minutes to recap … Read more

Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong

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Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe By Brian Nelson, CFA Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook seemingly have worked out a plan for Apple to keep advertising on the Twitter platform after what looked to be a temporary pause by the iPhone maker. Though the news is immaterial to our thesis on Apple in any respect, it was good to see the two tech giants work whatever differences they had out. Certainly, a fallout between Musk and Cook would not be a good thing for the tech sector and innovation, more broadly, as the two wield large influences across Silicon … Read more

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership

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In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance–despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening! Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” … Read more

Target’s Holiday Outlook Sends Mixed Messages; Big Sales Data Week Ahead

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Image Source: Valuentum “Nearly all of the slowdown was driven by our discretionary categories, Apparel, Home and Hardlines, as our guests became increasingly cautious in their spending in those categories at both Target and throughout the industry more broadly. So far in the month of November, trends have been largely consistent with what we were seeing at the end of October, in terms of our comp trends, the mix of sales between frequency and discretionary businesses and the focus on promotions by our guests.” – Target’s 3Q Conference Call By Brian Nelson, CFA After Walmart (WMT) reported its third-quarter earnings November 15, “Walmart Is Back on Track; Markets Looking Healthier,” we thought things were looking a bit better across the … Read more