DG

In the News: Facebook Optimistic, Visa Resilient, Dollar General’s Outlook Not Bad and More

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA As the world continues to heal from the coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the pace of news has not slowed. The S&P 500 (SPY) is now trading above/near the high end of our fair value estimate range, so we expect some profit taking to ensue in the coming months. The Reddit and meme-stock short-squeezes (with GameStop (GME) as their poster child) have only raised awareness of the hazards and systemic risks of price-agnostic trading and its potential impact on market health. Democrats have called on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to regulate the “gamification” of investing apps, and we hope that such regulation and oversight eventually advances to other questionable areas, including variants of quant and index … Read more

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios

by

January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially … Read more

Recent Data Indicates US Consumer Spending Holding Up Well, Online Sales Surging

by

Image Shown: As of this writing, the S&P 500 (SPY) appears ready to end 2020 on a high note, supported by the resilience of the US consumer. By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic accelerated the shift towards e-commerce, and that change has long legs. Retailers that previously invested in their digital operations and omni-channel sales capabilities were able to capitalize on this shift while those that relied heavily on foot traffic were hurt badly. Numerous retailers went under in 2020 including J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCPNQ) and Neiman Marcus. Holiday season shopping data indicates that US consumer spending was frontloaded and grew modestly in 2020, aided by surging e-commerce sales, which advanced nearly 50% on a year-over-year basis. … Read more

Dollar General Continues to Impress

by

Image Shown: Shares of Dollar General Corporation have surged higher over the past year. By Callum Turcan On December 3, Dollar General Corporation (DG) reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended October 30, 2020) that saw its same-store sales grow by over 12% year-over-year, which when combined with its steadily growing store count, saw the firm’s GAAP revenues jump higher by over 17% year-over-year. Dollar General has made great strides in upgrading its digital operations, expanding its store base, adding new products to its stores, and improving its cost structure during the past several fiscal years. These past initiatives are filtering down to Dollar General’s bottom line as its diluted GAAP EPS was up 63% year-over-year in the … Read more

Walmart’s Digital Strategy Continues to Pay Off

by

Image Shown: Walmart Inc continues to distribute its free cash flows back to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. The retailing giant’s management team has a long track record of being shareholders friendly. However, we still view shares of WMT as generously valued as of this writing, given that the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $133 per share though WMT is currently trading closer to ~$150 per share. Image Source: Walmart Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On November 17, Walmart Inc (WMT) reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 31, 2020) that beat consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-lines. As we have … Read more

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holdings Are Surging!

by

Image: The holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter during the trading session November 4. We continue to pound the table on our best ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA If you were like me, you stayed up as long as you could last night watching the U.S. election coverage before it became too difficult to keep your eyes open. When I went to sleep, it seemed as though Donald Trump would be re-elected. The only state that appeared to flip to the Democrats from the 2016 election was Arizona, meaning Trump would still retain greater than the 270 electoral votes required to gain re-election. Well, that was last night, and this is today. As more and more votes came in last … Read more

Great Day in the Markets!

by

Image: The Invesco QQQ Trust, an exchange-traded fund based on the NASDAQ 100 index, had a great day during the trading session October 12, as it leads all major indexes on the year.  — By Brian Nelson, CFA — First of all, a warm welcome to our new members. We recently posted a website overview video on our website here, and please be sure to view our stock report walk-through . At Valuentum, we’re financial publishers, so please be sure to read through how many members use our services here. — The trading session October 12 was a sight to see. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.88%, the S&P 500 jumped 1.64%, while the NASDAQ powered ahead an incredible 2.56%. As many of our … Read more

Dollar General’s Promising Growth Outlook

by

Image Source: Dollar General Corporation – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report By Callum Turcan We are big fans of Dollar General Corporation (DG) and continue to like shares of DG as a holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. After updating our discounted cash flow model, we increased the fair value estimate and the top end of our fair value estimate range for Dollar General. Under our “bull” case scenario, Dollar General now has a fair value estimate of $223 per share. Even if Dollar General surpasses the top end of our fair value estimate range, we prefer to let our winners run until their technicals turn against them. The latest 16-Page Stock Report covering Dollar General can be accessed here. … Read more

Costco Closes Out Fiscal 2020

by

Image Shown: Shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation have been on an upswing over the past five years. By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has upended daily activities and encouraged households worldwide to stockpile consumer staples products. When Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reported its fourth quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (16-week period ended August 31, 2020) on September 24, management noted that Costco’s worldwide foot traffic was down ~1% year-over-year last fiscal quarter though its average basket size was up ~13% year-over-year during this period. Households are apparently making the most out of every shopping trip in order to socially distance.   Costco’s ancillary businesses, like its in-store opticians and food courts operations, were hurt by temporary closures last fiscal … Read more

Macy’s Is Treading Water for Now

by

Image Shown: Shares of Macy’s Inc have flatlined since crashing during the first three months of calendar year 2020 as investors await signs of the embattled retailer’s turnaround strategy taking hold. By Callum Turcan On September 2, embattled retailer Macy’s Inc (M) reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) that saw the firm’s comparable sales drop 34.7% year-over-year at stores owned by Macy’s due primarily to physical store closures brought on by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The year-over-year decline in comparable sales deepened to 35.1% when including stores owned and licensed by Macy’s. Digital sales offered some reprieve as those were up 53% year-over-year last fiscal quarter, with digital sales as a percentage of the … Read more