Member Articles

Short-Term Headwinds Aside, Applied Materials Has a Bright Dividend Growth Trajectory

by

Image Source: Applied Materials Applied Materials’ strong free cash flow generation drives our favorable opinion of its dividend health, but investors should not ignore the inherent volatility and rapidly-changing dynamics of the semiconductor space, which introduces additional risk to our forecasts of future free cash flows. Near-term headwinds are prevalent for the company, but we think it is well-positioned to capitalize on future growth opportunities, thanks in part to a dedication to robust R&D spending. By Callum Turcan Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) is a player in the semiconductor space with a dividend yield of 2.1% as of this writing. The company sells equipment used to fabricate semiconductors, including spare parts and other equipment that are either ancillary or auxiliary to … Read more

Tenneco’s Shares Undervalued Leading Up to Business Separation

by

  Image Source: Tenneco fourth quarter earnings presentation We think shares of Tenneco are undervalued as the company gears up to complete a business separation in the back half of 2019, but we’re not interested in the stock as a great deal of uncertainty surrounds not only the company itself but the auto supplier industry in general. Expectations for a decline in global light vehicle production in 2019 coupled with heightened concerns over the pace of global economic growth do not bode well for the group, and the auto landscape is one that may see material change in coming years. By Kris Rosemann The auto and transportation space continues to evolve, and companies in all verticals within it are working … Read more

How To Think About Our Methodology In Action

by

Image shown: Chipotle (CMG) has been one of our best calls so far in 2019. No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, BRK.B, CMG, CVS, FB, GE, JPM, KMI, PYPL, V, XLNX.  Let’s talk about the newsletter portfolios, some areas where we’ve made mistakes, and how some members use our services. By Brian Nelson, CFA I love it when I get questions because it shows the engagement of our members. I appreciate that very much. Though there are other considerations, of course, the Valuentum methodology is really quite simple: dividend growth considerations aside, we like undervalued ideas that are going up, and we generally won’t remove ideas that are overvalued until their technical/momentum indicators turn over. Here’s more about our … Read more

Apple Surging — Your Competition Is News-Driven and Failing

by

No change to simulated newsletter portfolios. Clarification: On March 15, we sent out an alert for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio removing Novartis (NVS) and adding to the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), the latter now in the 5.5%-7.5% weighting bands, a combination of its prior weighting and the new additional weighting. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Whether it’s the 24-7 business news channel or the up-to-the-millisecond charting functionality that is causing it, your competition is news-driven. For example, we often receive a lot of questions on stocks at the time when they are falling precipitously. This is not the time to do the homework. It could simply be because the investor is holding the stock and wants an update, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 22

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 22. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week BBX Capital (BBX): now $0.0125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.01. Canadian Banc Corp (CNDCF): now CAD 0.0956 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.093. CareTrust REIT (CTRE): now $0.225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.205. CBTX (CBTX): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Cervus Equipment Corporation (CSQPF): now CAD 0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.10. Children’s Place Retail Stores (PLCE): now … Read more

In the News: Dividend Growth Still on Hold at General Mills After Strong Quarter, Avoiding FedEx and BMW After Warnings on Bottom-Line Weakness, and a Biogen as a Prime Example of Risks to Avoid in Biotech

by

General Mills raised bottom-line and free cash flow conversion expectations for fiscal 2019, but we’re not interested in shares as it continues to prioritize deleveraging over dividend growth in a slow growth environment. International corporations continue to weigh the impact of slowing macroeconomic activity and global trade tensions, as evidenced by FedEx and BMW slashing bottom-line expectations, and shares of Biogen have been rocked by news that it terminated two late-stage studies of a key Alzheimer’s treatment. By Kris Rosemann General Mills Turns in Positive Organic Sales Growth and Operating Margin Expansion Food products giant General Mills (GIS) turned in better-than-expected results in its fiscal 2019 third quarter report, released March 20, as organic sales growth advanced 1% on a … Read more

Tivity Health Paid Up For Nutrisytem; Shares Undervalued But We’re Not Biting

by

Image Source: Mike Mozart Tivity Health looks to have paid a notable premium for Nutrisystem, but we think shares have been punished a bit too aggressively. While we are not fond of the deal’s price, it makes sense from a strategic standpoint. However, competition in the weight management market will not subside, and integration and execution risk will be key hurdles. By Kris Rosemann We’ve lowered our fair value estimate for Tivity Health (TVTY) after it paid up in mid-December to acquire Nutrisystem for $1.3 billion in cash and stock. While we tend to agree with the directional reaction of the market to the acquisition, shares may very well have been punished too steeply in reaction to the deal. Tivity … Read more

Dropping Coverage of the Radio Broadcasting Industry

by

Image Source: Pandora Valuentum is dropping coverage of the radio broadcasting industry to allocate resources elsewhere. We will retain coverage of Sirius XM (SIRI) in the media – entertainment industry. Structure of the Broadcasting (Radio) Industry Firms in the broadcasting (radio) industry provide satellite radio services, Internet radio services, and operate commercial radio stations. Constituents compete for both listeners and advertisers. Satellite radio providers generate revenue via subscription fees, primarily distribute radios through the sale/lease of new automobiles, and face competition from free traditional AM/FM radio and online-only providers, which make digital streams available through the Internet for free. The industry is characterized by rapid change, and competition will keep any outsize profits to a minimum. We don’t like the structure of … Read more

Outperformance No Matter How You Measure It

by

Image shown: The performance of Valuentum’s simulated Best Ideas Newsletter since the inaugural edition of the newsletter, July 13, 2011. We migrated to a weighting range format for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas beginning in 2018. At that time, Visa (V) was the top weighting by far at 8.6%. Shares of Visa have soared since, and other ideas haven’t been too shabby either! Source. Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is in a class by itself. Did you know that ~90% of active fund managers are underperforming their benchmarks over prolonged periods of time? The lack of volatility of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio had been driven by its massive average cash “weighting” of 25% during its history, something we … Read more

It Definitely Is a *Best* Ideas Newsletter!

by

Image shown: Valuentum migrated to a weighting range format for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas beginning in 2018. This article was sent to members via email March 15. By Brian Nelson, CFA I was on social media the other day, and somebody was asking whether there would be more engagement/likes/appreciation from a picture of a cat than if someone were to put up great stock picks year after year. I think the poll came back in favor of the cat pictures! It’s an interesting time, and investors are tuning out great research because they simply don’t know what to listen to. They don’t know the real deal, and that’s why writing Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation was so important. It’s … Read more