Brian Nelson

Warren: Four Ways to Play the Market at This Juncture

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Image Source: Daniel Lobo In this piece, we examine where the economy and stock markets have been recently, where we are now, and where we are going next. We also highlight four key ways to play this volatile market. We think this is a helpful way to think about overall portfolio construction, especially so that one does not overly expose themselves to a particular set of risks that could come to fruition—like an extended downturn in the economy or a rapid discovery of a vaccine for Covid-19 on the other hand. By Matthew Warren Macro Matters When you turn on the television to the stock channel, there is a tremendous amount of discussion about where we are now and where … Read more

Recent Events Concerning Johnson & Johnson

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Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – First Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan We include Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as a top-weighted holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and as a medium-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The firm’s Dividend Cushion ratio sits at a solid 2.1, and please note that this forward-looking dividend coverage ratio factors in our expectations that Johnson & Johnson will grow its per share dividend by mid-single-digits annually over the coming years. Johnson & Johnson earns a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating and an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Growth rating, with shares of JNJ yielding ~2.8% as of this writing. In our view, Johnson & Johnson’s strong balance sheet and high quality … Read more

Best Idea PayPal Hits Record High!

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—– Hi everyone, — The Valuentum strategy continues to deliver! My goodness! One of our favorite ideas in the payment processing space PayPal (PYPL) is hitting a record high today. Simply incredible. For those that missed the latest edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter, it can be downloaded here (pdf). For those that missed the latest edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter, it can be downloaded here (pdf). Thanks so much for your interest, and we’re available for any questions. Cheers! — Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA President, Investment Research Valuentum Securities, Inc. brian@valuentum.com — Financial Tech Services: MA, MELI, PYPL, V, VRSK

Nelson: Trust Is What Matters

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Video: President of Valuentum Brian Nelson remains optimistic about the markets and the outlook for Valuentum investing. Don’t forget to fill out the survey!   To watch the video >> — —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY and SCHG. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies.

Turbulent Fiscal Fourth Quarter Aside, Oracle Paints a Promising Outlook for Fiscal 2021

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Image Source: Oracle Corporation – Oracle Database Update September 2019 Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 16, Oracle Corp (ORCL) reported fourth quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 31, 2020) that beat consensus bottom-line estimates and missed consensus top-line estimates, though there is some noise given the turbulence created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Additionally, Oracle declared a $0.24 per share quarterly dividend that is slated to get paid out in July, which was flat on a sequential basis. Shares of ORCL yield ~1.8% as of this writing, and we continue to like the idea as a holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. While shares of ORCL sold off on June 17, management painted a more optimistic … Read more

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks

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Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone, — Hope you are doing great! First, I wanted to let you know that we’re still working to get the second release of the survey out to you. Your participation in the survey will determine whether we launch a new business, so please do fill it out and keep a watchful eye out for … Read more

Exxon Mobil Puts on a Brave Face

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Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – November 2019 Guyana IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Near-term oil prices and most importantly, the oil price futures curve, have improved materially since just a couple of months ago when it looked like the sky was falling. For the first time ever, WTI turned negative in April 2020 for physical deliveries due May 2020 of light sweet oil to Cushing, Oklahoma, as storage options were limited (and arguably, many speculators had jumped into the market not fully aware of the risks they were taking on). Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has seen its share price recover considerably since the drop, though we caution that management’s commitment to the dividend will prove a hard task if … Read more

Lululemon Supported by Strong Digital Sales

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Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Infographic By Callum Turcan On June 11, Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) reported first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 3, 2020) that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company’s strong digital sales were offset by the negative impact of containment efforts to stop the spread of coronavirus (‘COVID-19’), namely store closures (both company-owned and third-party retail locations). Shares of LULU are still up comfortably year-to-date as of this writing, in large part due to its pristine balance sheet and past investments in its digital infrastructure and digital sales channels. We covered these two aspects of its business model and why that would be a source of strength … Read more

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected

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ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected Image: The market’s levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum’s text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. — Hi everyone, — Hope you all are doing great!  — Many of you have already filled out the survey, and I can’t thank you enough for that. For those that may have missed the email housing … Read more

Reviewing Oracle’s Cloud Ambitions Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings Report

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Image Shown: Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is seeking to take market share in the clouding computing space from Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) and Amazon Inc (AMZN). Image Source: Oracle Corporation – September 2019 Financial Analyst Meeting By Callum Turcan Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is included as a holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We like the firm’s high quality cash flow profile as that lends support to its Dividend Safety rating, which sits at “GOOD,” and should its Dividend Cushion ratio of 2.7 tick up slightly, Oracle would be in a position to earn an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Safety rating. Shares of ORCL yield ~1.8% as of this writing, and Oracle’s Dividend Growth rating sits at “EXCELLENT” given its promising payout growth trajectory. … Read more