PSA

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

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Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

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Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Economic Commentary: US-Listed Chinese Names, 60-40 Stock-Bond Allocation and More

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There’s an interesting saying that I came across recently…that hits at the most important component of any fiduciary approach: capital preservation. The saying was “Friends don’t let friends buy and hold.” We’ve always employed the Valuentum strategy, which we believe is much more promising than a traditional buy and hold strategy. – Brian Nelson, CFA The US-China trade war continues with reports indicating that the White House is considering delisting Chinese (FXI, MCHI, KWEB) companies on US exchanges. Let’s get more of the Valuentum’s team’s thoughts on these developments as well as other topics that have come to the fore. The latest alert to members is a great prompt to get the conversation started. The Valuentum Team: If we had … Read more

We Just Increased Our Fair Value Estimate for United Rentals

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Image Shown: We increased our fair value estimate for United Rentals in early July 2019.  By Callum Turcan We recently increased our fair value estimate for United Rentals Inc (URI), the largest equipment rental company in the world. The company has been a key beneficiary from the secular shift away from customer ownership to the rental of construction and industrial equipment. United Rentals has a heavy presence in America and Canada, along with a limited footprint in Europe. Management is guiding for United Rentals to generate $1.3–$1.5 billion in free cash flow in 2019 before taking special items into account (particularly expenses incurred integrating recent acquisitions into company-wide operations). That should enable United Rentals to pursue both its deleveraging goals … Read more

Our Reports on Rental and Leasing Stocks

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Structure of the Rental and Leasing Industry The highly fragmented and competitive US rental/leasing industry include entities that rent construction/industrial equipment, firms that lease household durable goods products, and companies that offer car/truck rental services. Equipment rental firms are tied to the cyclical construction/industrial markets, car rental revenue is levered to on-airport (air travel) demand, while lessors of household durables are tied to housing and consumer confidence trends. Some firms may gain advantages via large/diverse rental fleets and significant purchasing power, but we don’t like the structure of the group. We now cover stocks in the Rental and Leasing industry in the articles we write: CAR, PSA, R, UHAL, URI.

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

Mortgage REITs Floundering, More Reports

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In alphabetical order by company name: NLY, CAKE, CLX, CVS, EL, PBI, PSA, QCOM, O, SMG  — Annaly Capital (NLY): We’ve been warning about the mortgage REITs (REM) for as long as we can remember, and we just issued yet another warning recently about the sustainability of group’s dividends. These equities are high-risk, and they’ve been underperformers for years. On May 1, Annaly Capital pre-announced a dividend cut to $0.25 per share, down from $0.30 per share previously. Economic leverage at the mREIT was 7x at the end of the quarter, and mortgage market dynamics remain as difficult to predict as ever. CEO Kevin Keyes characterized the current environment as one hindered by a “flattening yield curve and compressed spreads.” Buyer … Read more

ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

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“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more

DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn’t look like the timing could have been much better.  Changes to Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio Removing Novartis (NVS) -3.5%-5.5% Adding Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) +3.5%-5.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA The back half of 2018 was among the most exciting in Valuentum’s history. For one, we might have made one of our best “market-direction” calls since inception in practically calling the near-term bottom December 26. In hindsight, it’s clear the market had overreacted, but at the time, going to “fully … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

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Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more