MPC

Our Reports on Refining Stocks

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Image Source: Rongy Benjamin Structure of the Refining Industry Results of firms in the refining industry are primarily affected by the relationship, or margin, between refined product prices and the prices for crude oil and other feedstocks. The cost to acquire feedstocks and the price at which refiners can sell refined products depends upon several factors beyond their control, including the supply/demand of crude oil and other refined products—which in turn depends on the availability of imports, production, inventories, political affairs and economic considerations. Refining margins are difficult to predict, and we expect them to continue to be volatile in the future. We’ve dropped coverage of the Refining industry: HES, HFC, MPC, PSX, VLO.

Checking Out ARAMCO, Saudi Arabia’s Sleeping Giant

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Image Source: Trending Topics 2019 By Callum Turcan Recent events have piqued our interest in the actions of Saudi Arabian Oil Company, better known as ARAMCO (ARMCO), the giant in charge of the Gulf nation’s hydrocarbon industry. Saudi Arabia is reportedly restarting ARAMCO’s IPO according to comments made by the Saudi Energy Minister, reviving a plan the country had previously put on ice primarily due to expectations that the company wouldn’t fetch a high enough valuation to suit the needs of the Kingdom. Many view ARAMCO as the most valuable company in the world, but whether this is a USD$2 trillion company or not is in the eye of the beholder (many see that target as overly ambitious, as do … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

Three Upstream Companies Contend with the Shale Treadmill

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Image Source: Marathon Oil Corporation — Fourth-quarter IR presentation. Global oil prices are climbing back up again and that got us thinking about three of the biggest independent upstream players in America’s shale patch. By Callum Turcan Global oil prices are rising and that has gotten us thinking about upstream players EOG Resources Inc (EOG), Noble Energy Inc (NBL), and Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO). All three of these companies possess domestic and international producing operations, with unconventional upstream opportunities in America providing a key growth generator as market conditions allow. Stronger realizations will lead to improving financial performance on a sequential basis, but ultimately, valuations are based on price expectations over decades not quarters. This generally makes valuing upstream firms … Read more

ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

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“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more

DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn’t look like the timing could have been much better.  Changes to Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio Removing Novartis (NVS) -3.5%-5.5% Adding Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) +3.5%-5.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA The back half of 2018 was among the most exciting in Valuentum’s history. For one, we might have made one of our best “market-direction” calls since inception in practically calling the near-term bottom December 26. In hindsight, it’s clear the market had overreacted, but at the time, going to “fully … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

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Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more

Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!

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Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions. Dear members, I wanted to first of all welcome our new members. There have been a lot of new ones during the past few weeks. Thank you. The buzz might be coming from the new book launch, Value Trap. If you haven’t read the book yet, please do so here. Members can get the pdf digital download today at 25% off. For new members, reading this book is simply par for the course to get a feel for how we look at … Read more

Consider Selling Discipline = Systematic, Forward-looking, Repeatable

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Image shown: An illustration of Valuentum’s call on Kinder Morgan during 2015. You can read about this in more detail in the Preface of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. For a consider-selling discipline to be successful, it must be systematic, forward-looking and repeatable. The Valuentum process worked equally well with General Electric during 2017 (image later in note). No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone! The markets took a shellacking yesterday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) falling over 300 points during the trading session January 22. Had there not been a near-100 point leap in the Dow during the past few minutes of trading, the fallout may have been worse. Most are … Read more

Conference Call Coming Soon, Catch Up This Weekend

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Image shown: The markets continue to rally significantly since the near-term bottom in December. Here’s the email we sent to members December 26.  No changes to simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (contact us if you missed the latest notification regarding the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio). This article was sent to members via email January 19. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. Conference Call Monday, January 28, 11amET/10amCT. We’ll talk about website navigation, how to use the stock and dividend reports, and dig deep into our capital-appreciation and dividend growth methodology. Details to follow, but add this date/time to your calendar. Read what some of our members have … Read more