MCHP

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

by

Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Semiconductors Broadcom and Cree Push Forward in an Uncertain Environment

by

Image Source: Broadcom Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Broadcom (AVGO) posted third quarter earnings for its fiscal 2019 on September 12. The semiconductor and enterprise software giant reported GAAP revenues of $5.5 billion (up 9% year-over-year) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.16 (up 4% year-over-year). The initial reaction from Wall Street was pessimistic on September 13 but shares of AVGO climbed later in the trading session to recover some of those initial losses. Reiterating FY2019 Outlook, FY2020 Outlook Uncertain Right off the bat, one thing we think is very important is that Broadcom reaffirmed revenue guidance for FY2019 calling for $22.5 billion in net sales ($17.5 billion from semiconductor solutions and $5.0 billion from infrastructure software sales). However, … Read more

Nvidia Beats Low Expectations and Shares are Rewarded Accordingly

by

Image Source: Nvidia Corporation – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), like the rest of the semiconductor industry, has been on a wild ride over the past few years. On the one hand, the industry has benefited from the cloud-computing build out and the rise of smartphones, along with the emergence of autonomous driving, the internet of things (“IoT”), machine learning, and artificial intelligence. On the other hand, semiconductors are now contending with headwinds from the bust in the cryptocurrency craze, the sharp slowdown in data center investments due in part to ongoing trade wars, and other factors like excess inventory. Expectations were very low for Nvidia heading into its second quarter FY2020 earnings, released August 15, which … Read more

Nvidia Scraps Full-Year Guidance, Market Balks

by

Image Source: Nvidia Corporation – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) designs chips for data centers, PCs and laptops with a heavy focus on gaming performance, next-generation automobiles (such as autonomous vehicles), and other purposes. The company is built around two segments, GPUs (graphics processing units for visual, AI, and cloud computing uses) and Tegra Processors (integrates GPUs and CPUs, central processing units, into one chip for mobile devices, gaming systems, entertainment systems, autonomous vehicles, and other uses). Management breaks down the markets Nvidia is targeting into four categories; Gaming, Visual Performance, Datacenter, and Automotive. Due to its low payout ratio, Nvidia yields just 0.4% as of this writing, but we think the company could become a meaningful … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

by

Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

by

“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more

DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?

by

Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn’t look like the timing could have been much better.  Changes to Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio Removing Novartis (NVS) -3.5%-5.5% Adding Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) +3.5%-5.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA The back half of 2018 was among the most exciting in Valuentum’s history. For one, we might have made one of our best “market-direction” calls since inception in practically calling the near-term bottom December 26. In hindsight, it’s clear the market had overreacted, but at the time, going to “fully … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

by

Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more

Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!

by

Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions. Dear members, I wanted to first of all welcome our new members. There have been a lot of new ones during the past few weeks. Thank you. The buzz might be coming from the new book launch, Value Trap. If you haven’t read the book yet, please do so here. Members can get the pdf digital download today at 25% off. For new members, reading this book is simply par for the course to get a feel for how we look at … Read more

Consider Selling Discipline = Systematic, Forward-looking, Repeatable

by

Image shown: An illustration of Valuentum’s call on Kinder Morgan during 2015. You can read about this in more detail in the Preface of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. For a consider-selling discipline to be successful, it must be systematic, forward-looking and repeatable. The Valuentum process worked equally well with General Electric during 2017 (image later in note). No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone! The markets took a shellacking yesterday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) falling over 300 points during the trading session January 22. Had there not been a near-100 point leap in the Dow during the past few minutes of trading, the fallout may have been worse. Most are … Read more