LMT

Middle East Tensions on the Rise

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By Callum Turcan Early Friday (Arabian Standard Time) on January 3 (the strike was carried out late Thursday evening Eastern Standard Time), under the orders of President Trump, the US took out major general Qasem Soleimani who was the leader of Iran’s Quds military group within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (‘IRGC’). Please note the US designated the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in April 2019, and that the justification for the strike was due to there being an immediate threat to US lives (namely soldiers and contractors stationed in the Middle East), according to the Pentagon. It’s important to note that the strike occurred on Iraqi soil. The Quds force is known to be Iran’s extraterritorial military outfit, … Read more

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

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Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

FLIR Systems Repositions Itself

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Image Source: FLIR Systems Inc – November 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan An appealing aspect of the defense industry is that it’s largely counter-cyclical, especially for companies that do a lot of business with the US Department of Defense (‘DoD’). The National Defense Authorization Act (‘NDAA’) that covers fiscal 2020 allows for a base budget level of $658.4 billion and an additional $71.5 billion has been allocated to overseas contingency operations. Noteworthy aspects of the NDAA covering fiscal 2020, which was signed into law by President Trump in December 2019, include the creation of a Space Force, a 3.1% pay increase for troops, and paid family leave for all federal workers. With a budget of $738 billion, up $21 … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Prime Aerospace & Defense Industry

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Image Source: Robert Sullivan Structure of the Aerospace and Defense Industry The global commercial aerospace duopoly is being challenged by encroaching international competitors who are intent on increasing market share, but Boeing and Airbus continue to dominate the large commercial aircraft segment. Long-term demand for commercial aircraft is cyclical and depends on the health of the credit markets, airline customers, and lessors, but massive backlogs and a strong multi-decade demand outlook are reasons for confidence. The defense industry has strong competition in all market segments and remains dependent on government funding decisions and competing budget priorities. We’ve optimized our industrials coverage. Our reports can be found here.

Honeywell’s Aerospace Division Its Crown Jewel

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We’re huge fans of Honeywell. The company’s Aero operations are its crown jewel, and while Boeing is facing some troubles these days, we don’t expect much impact on Honeywell at all. In fact, we expect commercial aerospace to remain strong, even in the face of broader industrial weakness. The risks to the company’s HBT business could be starting to mount given some concerns in commercial real estate, but management isn’t really seeing any signs of yet, pointing to only moderating growth in 2020. The SPS division, while a headwind, probably won’t be a factor next year, but it could bounce back as inventories are cleared from the channel. By Brian Nelson, CFA Honeywell (HON) has facilitated a number of changes … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

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Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 27

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 27. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Express (AXP): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.39. American Tower (AMT): now $0.95 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.92. Artesian Resources (ARTNA): now $0.2496 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2459. BancFirst (BANF): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. City Holding (CHCO): now $0.57 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.53. CSB Bancorp (CSBB): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. DENTSPLY … Read more

Saudi Arabia Attacked, Oil Prices Shoot Higher

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Image Shown: Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure was attacked over the weekend, causing WTI and Brent to rally at the start of the trading session. By Callum Turcan Disaster struck this weekend when several drones took out the Abqaiq oil processing facility and the massive onshore Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia (KSA) on Saturday, with WTI and Brent both surging on the news once trading resumed at the start of the week. The Khurais oil field produces around 1.5 million barrels of crude per day and the Abqaiq oil processing facility is the largest in the world. Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity was reduced by 5.7 million barrels of crude per day due to these attacks and the country is … Read more

The United Technologies-Raytheon Merger Will Create a Defense and Commercial Aerospace Giant

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Image Source: United Technologies Corporation – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 9, United Technologies Corporation (UTX) and Raytheon Company (RTN) agreed to a merger of equals that if approved, will create a new giant in the aerospace & defense world. The combined company will sell anything from Patriot surface-to-air missile systems to national governments to power generation and cyber protection products for commercial aircraft. United Technologies and Raytheon hope that as a combined entity, the new company will have the scale required to be truly competitive in the commercial aerospace industry while maintaining the status of a reliable defense contractor. Both CEO’s went on CBNC together to defend the deal and explained it as “complementary” to highlight the … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more