HYG

1Q 2023 Earnings Coming in Better Than Feared Thus Far

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve been receiving questions about the companies that we are looking to add to the Best Ideas Newsletter to replace the ones we recently removed, and I can say that we’re strongly considering adding Booking Holding (BKNG) and adding to the existing “position” in Chipotle (CMG) following their first-quarter 2023 results. We recently raised our fair value estimate for Booking Holding significantly (now $3,091; was $2,147 per share), and we expect a huge fair value increase at Chipotle in the coming weeks. Booking Holding will report its first-quarter 2023 earnings in early May, while Chipotle will report first-quarter 2023 results on April 25. We have several other ideas in mind to add to the Best Ideas … Read more

Stay Away from Mortgage REITs!

by

Image Source: Mortgage REITs have underperformed the broader stock market for years, and we don’t think individual investors and financial advisors should be dabbling in the mortgage markets via these instruments. By Brian Nelson, CFA On September 28, mortgage REIT (“mREIT”) Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) cut its dividend 28%, to $0.65 per common share. The bond markets have been experiencing a lot of pain of late, and mortgage rates have shot up considerably since the Fed started hiking. We think this spells trouble for mortgage REITs, which already suffer from highly unpredictable mortgage market dynamics. So far in 2022, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) has fallen more than 40% (on a price-only basis), and while its forward … Read more

Second Quarter Earnings Roundup

by

The figure above shows the performance of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio from inception May 17, 2011, through December 15, 2017, relative to its declared benchmark, the S&P 500 (SPY), on an apples-to-apples basis, with dividends collected but not reinvested for both the newsletter portfolio and the SPY, as reported in the monthly newsletter. The simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio outperformed the S&P 500, including reinvested dividends in the benchmark, since inception (May 17, 2011) and since the inaugural release of the newsletter (July 13, 2011) through the end of the measurement period (December 15, 2017). The results are hypothetical and do not represent returns that an investor actually earned. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Valuentum … Read more

Exxon Mobil Puts on a Brave Face

by

Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – November 2019 Guyana IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Near-term oil prices and most importantly, the oil price futures curve, have improved materially since just a couple of months ago when it looked like the sky was falling. For the first time ever, WTI turned negative in April 2020 for physical deliveries due May 2020 of light sweet oil to Cushing, Oklahoma, as storage options were limited (and arguably, many speculators had jumped into the market not fully aware of the risks they were taking on). Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has seen its share price recover considerably since the drop, though we caution that management’s commitment to the dividend will prove a hard task if … Read more

24 in a Row! Order the Exclusive Today!

by

Image Source: An excerpt from the March 2020 edition of the Exclusive publication. Valuentum offers commentary across the capital stack in the Exclusive publication. In the Exclusive publication, Valuentum highlights three new ideas each month to consider, one for income, one for capital appreciation, and a “short” idea consideration (all three outside our existing coverage universe). Fresh, underfollowed and new ideas — outside our coverage universe — every month! Nothing is held back.  Big Winners Backed by In-Depth Theses Since the monthly Exclusive was first published in July 2016, Valuentum’s mission with the publication has been to produce an unmatched newsletter that delivers ideas with high success rates and ones backed by in-depth theses across the three key themes: income, … Read more

Fed and Treasury Efforts Might Not Be Enough to Avoid Another Great Depression

by

Image: The Energy Select Sector SPDR and Financial Select Sector SPDR, two securities removed from both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in August 2019 have been ravaged during this market selloff. We maintain our view that the energy and banking sectors are worth avoiding during this market meltdown. By Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s not mince words: We’re facing a global financial crisis and the real and growing probability of another Great Depression (not recession, but depression). The Fed has unleashed just about every backstop facility that it did during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, with the announcement the morning of March 23, and it is now even buying corporate bond ETFs (LQD). It’s possible … Read more

Stress in the Oil & Gas Industry Grows as Major Energy Exporters Hunker Down

by

Image Shown: WTI is down almost 61% over the past year as raw energy resources prices were decimated by the news that OPEC and non-OPEC members couldn’t reach another production curtailment deal in early-March 2020. By Callum Turcan Raw energy resources pricing has crashed through the floor, so to speak, with WTI (USO) (US oil pricing benchmark), Brent (BNO) (international oil pricing benchmark), Henry Hub (UNG) (US natural gas pricing benchmark), and the LNG Japan/Korea Marker (pricing benchmark for liquefied natural gas [‘LNG’] deliveries to East Asian markets) are all trading at or near multi-decade lows as of this writing. The pricing for natural gas liquids (‘NGLs’), like ethane, propane, and butane, have also come crashing down (seen through Mont … Read more

Best Idea Michael Kors Up 20%+ — Yawn?

by

“A significantly “undervalued stock” that is dropping like a rock is a huge red flag, and the Valuentum system offers a methodological overlay to incorporate the very valuable information contained in  share prices.” – Brian Nelson, CFA What a day for Michael Kors (KORS)! At the time of this writing February 2, shares of the aspirational brand are soaring 20%+. Yes, it is a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, “Valuentum’s Best Ideas Portfolio,” and yes, we added to the position in Michael Kors November 5, 2015, “Email Transaction Alerts.” The email transaction alert, which included some profit-taking in Altria and additions to the positions in Buffalo Wild Wings and Michael Kors, can be downloaded here. Prior to the … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 6

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 6. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aecon (AEGXF): now CAD 0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.145. Alamos Gold (AGI): now $0.015 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.010. Americold Realty Trust (COLD): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term (FINS): now $0.1116 per share monthly dividend, was $0.1112. Armanino Foods of Distinction (AMNF): now $0.0275 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0250. B. Riley Financial … Read more