HBI

Our Reports on Stocks in the Retail–Apparel (Teen-30yrs, Off-Price, Outdoor) Industry

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Structure of the Retail–Apparel Industry The specialty apparel industry is highly competitive. Firms compete with various individual and chain specialty stores, as well as casual apparel sections of department stores and discount retailers. Identifying and responding to fashion trends remains key, and business fluctuates with changes in the economy and customer preferences. Fashion missteps can result in lower sales, excess inventories, and higher markdowns, which can severely impact profits. Improving productivity, managing new store growth and developing new brand concepts are critical for long-term success. We’re neutral on the group. We’ve dropped coverage of stocks in the Retail–Apparel (Teen-30yrs, Off-Price, Outdoor) industry.

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

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Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Hold ‘em or Fold ‘em?

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Let’s talk Cardinal Health, Hanesbrands, Ford and Verint in this piece. Our best ideas are ideas in the newsletter portfolios. Unlike other widely followed strategies, the Valuentum strategy likes to capture the entire pricing cycle on an idea. We don’t “operate” in ideas only below the ‘undervalued’ line, but we like to let our winners run to when they are overvalued and showing signs of technical/momentum deterioration. By Brian Nelson, CFA The most important quality of a Valuentum investor is patience. Once we add an idea to the newsletter portfolios, we don’t remove it once it starts to approach the lower bounds of the fair value estimate range. We generally don’t remove it at our fair value estimate either, and … Read more

Macy’s Cuts Guidance, Dividend Cut Could Be on the Horizon

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Image Source: Macy’s Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Retailers (XRT, RTH) have been struggling as the e-commerce shift has stressed margins and hurt foot traffic at stores and malls all across America. Macy’s Inc (M) had fared better than most, but that’s beginning to change. The company reported second quarter FY2019 earnings on August 14 which came with a guidance cut that saw shares of Macy’s plummet below their late-2017 lows. While Macy’s recovered throughout the trading day, the market is clearly signaling that investors are expecting more pain is ahead. As of this writing, shares of Macy’s yield ~9.0%, a major red flag. Guidance Cut Management cut earnings guidance for the full fiscal year while keeping estimates … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

Berkshire’s Buybacks, More Earnings Reports

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Berkshire’s Buybacks, More Earnings Reports — In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: ANET, ATVI, BRK.B, CHD, DWDP, DNKN, GILD, HBI, K, TEVA — Arista Networks (ANET): Arista reported a solid first-quarter report May 2, but its outlook for the second quarter left something to be desired. The cloud networking company could offer a hint to what to expect from Cisco (CSCO) when it reports in the coming week or so. Arista’s revenue during the first quarter was fine, jumping 26%, and earnings per share also handily beat, but top-line guidance for the second quarter came in at $600-$610 million, below consensus forecasts. It’s still early in the year to jump to any conclusions, but investors in Cisco should perhaps set expectations … Read more

Facebook’s Huge New Opportunity in Instagram Checkout, Reiterating Fair Value Estimate ~$230

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Image Source: Facebook’s Instagram We continue to like Facebook, and we’re huge fans of Instagram Checkout. Many may not know it yet, but Instagram Checkout may mark the beginning of retailers’ websites becoming obsolete. The sell-off last summer in Facebook was a big gift for those that stuck with our thesis. Brian Nelson, CFA I think one of the things that financial advisors and financial planners do extremely well is explain the concept of patience to their clients. Can you imagine if a client cashed out upon every 15%-20% decline? That’d be a recipe for continuous disaster. On the path to the market setting broader market highs in 2018, there have been many disappointments along the way. There have been … Read more

ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

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“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more

DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn’t look like the timing could have been much better.  Changes to Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio Removing Novartis (NVS) -3.5%-5.5% Adding Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) +3.5%-5.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA The back half of 2018 was among the most exciting in Valuentum’s history. For one, we might have made one of our best “market-direction” calls since inception in practically calling the near-term bottom December 26. In hindsight, it’s clear the market had overreacted, but at the time, going to “fully … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

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Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more