GOOG

Boeing Had Been Overpriced, Breakup Facebook, Amazon, and Alphabet?

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Let’s cover some of the recent developments related to Boeing and ongoing political posturing as it relates to large tech companies. Don’t forget about the 40/40 goal, and be sure to check out the tremendous success rates of the Exclusive publication! By Brian Nelson, CFA The interest in the Exclusive publication has never been greater, and frankly, I couldn’t be happier — and I only have you to thank. But what is the Exclusive and how does it differ from the High Yield Dividend Newsletter? Well, the Exclusive is our premiere newsletter, where we highlight an income idea, a capital appreciation idea and a short idea for consideration each month in thesis form. Many individuals, financial advisors, and institutions use … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

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Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more

Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!

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Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions. Dear members, I wanted to first of all welcome our new members. There have been a lot of new ones during the past few weeks. Thank you. The buzz might be coming from the new book launch, Value Trap. If you haven’t read the book yet, please do so here. Members can get the pdf digital download today at 25% off. For new members, reading this book is simply par for the course to get a feel for how we look at … Read more

Changes to the Newsletter Portfolios (Best Ideas & Dividend Growth)

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Image shown: In our December 26 note to members, we moved the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested” from a cash “allocation” of 30% and 20%, respectively at the high end of the range. It has worked out wonderfully as we keep our finger on the put option trigger in case price-agnostic trading and heightened volatility rears its ugly ahead again, as it did in December 2018. Summary of Changes to Newsletter Portfolios Best Ideas Newsletter: Remove Gilead Sciences (GILD) Add Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) at 2.5%-4% weighting Dividend Growth Newsletter: Remove Xilinx (XLNX) Remove Gilead Sciences Add Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF at 2.5%-3.5% weighting Add Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) at 2.5%-3.5% weighting By Kris … Read more

Video Game Industry Adapting to Consumers and Technology

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Image Source: steamXO Adapting to consumer consumption trends is a necessity for video game makers, and rapidly improving technology standards are impacting the industry as producers work to deliver high-quality entertainment effectively. Long-term demand trends are generally bright, but continual innovation and adaptation will be necessary. By Kris Rosemann Key Takeaways Video game companies compete with all forms of entertainment for discretionary spending, and competition has never been greater. Business models aimed at driving recurring revenue have disappointed with respect to their ability to reduce lumpy financial performance. Evolving delivery methods cannot reduce the hit-based nature of the industry. We’re not interested in adding exposure to the space, but operators within it do have some attractive qualities, not the least … Read more

Questions Answered!

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Image shown: The S&P 500 (SPY) performance and the timing of when we went to “fully invested” in the simulated newsletter portfolios, the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter. No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone! Trust you are doing great. Here’s what you need to know about the broader market backdrop.  1) We’ve been expecting a more dovish Fed as the yield curve continues to threaten material inversion. We doubt the Fed will materially and purposefully invert it. The behavioral risks of actually causing a recession by doing so are too great. That means yield-oriented equities may continue to breathe a sigh of relief. This is good for ideas in the simulated Dividend … Read more

Alphabet Working to Balance Rising Spending and Driving Revenue Growth

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Alphabet’s top-line growth remains impressive, but rising costs continue to pressure margin performance. Free cash flow generation is still robust, which provides the backbone for its fortress-like balance sheet, but capital spending levels advanced at a significant rate in 2018. By Kris Rosemann Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) turned in a strong finish to 2018, but rising mobile-driven traffic acquisition costs are expected to continue weighing on margin performance. Revenue at Alphabet in the fourth quarter, results released February 4, jumped 22% on a year-over-year basis as reported thanks to its continued strength in Mobile Search as well as support from YouTube, Cloud, and Desktop Search, but operating income growth came in at only ~7% as … Read more

A Great Couple Months! Apple Pops!

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Image shown: The markets continue to rally significantly since the near-term bottom in December. Here’s the email we sent to members December 26.  No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hope you are doing great. Believe it or not, the wind chill may have hit 50 or 60 below-zero in Woodstock, Illinois this morning. The polar vortex has most of the Midwest running for cover. Even the Chicago Bears have changed their name to the Chicago Polar Bears. Just kidding. In any case, the markets don’t mind. We continue to recover from the December lows, and we’ve been staying mighty busy. For starters, if you haven’t read Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, you’re not going to get as … Read more

Consider Selling Discipline = Systematic, Forward-looking, Repeatable

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Image shown: An illustration of Valuentum’s call on Kinder Morgan during 2015. You can read about this in more detail in the Preface of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. For a consider-selling discipline to be successful, it must be systematic, forward-looking and repeatable. The Valuentum process worked equally well with General Electric during 2017 (image later in note). No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone! The markets took a shellacking yesterday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) falling over 300 points during the trading session January 22. Had there not been a near-100 point leap in the Dow during the past few minutes of trading, the fallout may have been worse. Most are … Read more

Conference Call Coming Soon, Catch Up This Weekend

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Image shown: The markets continue to rally significantly since the near-term bottom in December. Here’s the email we sent to members December 26.  No changes to simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (contact us if you missed the latest notification regarding the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio). This article was sent to members via email January 19. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. Conference Call Monday, January 28, 11amET/10amCT. We’ll talk about website navigation, how to use the stock and dividend reports, and dig deep into our capital-appreciation and dividend growth methodology. Details to follow, but add this date/time to your calendar. Read what some of our members have … Read more