FOX

The Intricacies of the Valuentum Process

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Let’s take a quick overview of the Valuentum processes for capital appreciation and dividend growth with a discussion of how we use the Valuentum Buying Index and the Dividend Cushion ratio. By Brian Nelson, CFA There is a lot behind the Valuentum processes for capital appreciation and dividend growth, respectively, and both the criteria for inclusion to either the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are different. Our best ideas at any time, however, are always included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We use our research as a means to identify new ideas for consideration in the simulated newsletter portfolios, as well as to consider removing ideas from the simulated newsletter portfolios. As it relates to … Read more

Catching the Bottom?

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Image shown: The depths of how far the S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen more recently, and the timing of the decision to move to being “fully invested” in simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.   No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios. This article was sent to members via email January 9. That email can be found at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA On the evening of December 26, we emailed members that we were moving to “fully invested” in both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. First of all, please let me apologize. I wanted to stay in front of members during one of the most volatile times … Read more

Markets Up Big; Upside Volatility

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Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August 2017. The index has broken through support and is now bouncing back to resistance. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone, Are you watching these markets? This is incredible. The Dow finished down 660 points yesterday (briefly dropping 700 points), and today, the Dow is currently trading up 600 points at the time of this writing. Granted, there was Apple’s (AAPL) poor first-quarter 2019 guidance yesterday and the strong jobs report today, but this volatility is not “normal,” no matter what others are saying. A couple announcements up front. For those that already ordered our book Value Trap, I will send you the pdf download to your email address just to make sure … Read more

In the News: Geopolitical Uncertainty Rules the Day

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Let’s take a look at some of the recent top stories and their implications on the market. By Kris Rosemann Brexit negotiations continue to be a messy ordeal for British Prime Minister Theresa May and her countrymen. The EU (VGK) rejected her most recent proposal without proposing counteroffers, and if there is no agreement, there will be no transition to keep the UK (EWU) and its businesses from being stuck in a sort of trade policy purgatory. May has been quoted as saying, “No deal is better than a bad deal,” as well as, “No one wants a good deal more than me.” A good deal would assure frictionless trade in goods and would not disrupt any intertwined supply chains multinational businesses … Read more

Disney’s Top Line Growing as It Leverages Film Successes

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Image Source: David Holt Media giant Disney has been executing well of late as it leverages its successful content into a broader scope of entertainment, but competition may be heating up related to its pending acquisition of Twenty-First Century Fox’s media assets. By Kris Rosemann Worldwide entertainment company Walt Disney (DIS) operates in four business segments: ‘Media Networks’ (cable and broadcast television networks, including ABC, ESPN and the Disney Channel), ‘Parks and Resorts’ (resorts in Florida, California, Paris and more), ‘Studio Entertainment’ (films under the Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm and Touchstone banners), and ‘Consumer Products & Interactive Media’ (the licensing of trade names, characters and literary properties). The company’s ‘Media Networks’ operation is the largest portion of its … Read more

Discovery-Scripps Joining Forces to Take on the Changing Digital Media Landscape

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Image Source: Lwp Kommunikáció Discovery Communications has agreed to acquire Scripps Networks, but will it be enough for the two to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving–and consolidating–media landscape? By Kris Rosemann The cable TV industry is not what it was only a few short years ago, and Discovery Communications (DISCA) finally getting its hands on the assets of Scripps Networks (SNI) is only further evidence of this. Both companies have had a relative amount of success in delivering compelling programming to targeted audiences in years past via traditional pay-TV channels, but the days of tuning in to Shark Week on The Discovery Channel through your local cable provider are fading fast. The cord-cutting revolution is one that has been well-covered … Read more

Cord Cutting and the New Age Consumer

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Disney’s Quarterly Performance Reignites Fear On May 10, Disney’s (DIS) shares fell after the company reported lower-than-expected fiscal second-quarter earnings. Investors are concerned with the media and entertainment giant’s weakness in advertising revenue and subscribers in its Media Networks segment, which accounts for more than 60% of the company’s operating income. Was the fiscal second quarter the beginning of a long-term trend for the segment at Disney? As more and more consumers continue to opt away from traditional cable TV, will not only its subscriptions decline, but will demand for advertising space on the networks also fall as fewer consumers are reached through the medium? Investors are fearing the worst. The development is certainly worth following … Read more

What’s Working in Today’s Market?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA As emerging markets around the world suffer from commodity-price-led economic weakness, capital continues to find a safe-haven in US government bonds (TLT, TBT), but for those equity-oriented funds that mandate a fully-invested status, not something we’re particularly advocates of, assets within US equities have favored “lower-beta” utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) sectors while cyclically-dependent and credit-levered sectors such as the financials (XLF) and materials (XLB) have suffered thus far in 2016. The industrials (XLI) and energy (XLE) sectors have also encountered higher-than-normal selling pressure in the first few weeks of the New Year, as investors evaluate the global economic landscape and what a prolonged period of low energy prices may mean for the lowest quality … Read more

Are You Ready for Some Football? Google Is.

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Digital news firm AllThingsD broke the story that Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Google (click ticker for report: ) could be in talks with the NFL over exclusive rights for the NFL Sunday Ticket package, which allows consumers to view every NFL game. Another Best Idea portfolio holding, DirecTV (click ticker for report: ), currently holds exclusive rights for Sunday Ticket through the 2014 season, which costs the firm $1 billion annually. Why It Makes Sense for Google On the surface, such an idea seems interesting for Google. With the exclusive Sunday Ticket package, Google could really make a push into the TV business. Google could even pair the package with a purchase of the Google Chromecast, a portable online … Read more

Icahn Reignites Apple

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Shares of Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio holding Apple (click ticker for report: ) showed considerable relative strength following solid third quarter results July 24. Pricing momentum was augmented when legendary money manager Carl Icahn (or iCahn) sent out a series of tweets about the tech giant on August 13. iCahn Moves the Market Icahn needs no introduction, as he boasts a rumored net worth in excess of $20 billion, has engaged in numerous high-profile corporate battles (US Steel, Dell, TWA), and without question is considered one of the greatest money managers of his era. When Icahn speaks (or tweets), markets listen. While Icahn’s presence as an Apple shareholder has little, if any, fundamental change on the company, his … Read more