EBAY

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

Earnings Reports Flying In!

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Earnings reports are flying in. We thought Air Products’, Hasbro’s, and Lockheed’s quarterly updates were standouts. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s time to make some noise! Seriously, we just debunked a decades-old myth that the average active investor theoretically cannot outperform, net of fees. We also just showed theoretically how empirical asset pricing models in using realized data are off the mark. I think both of these are huge deals in the field of finance. Make some noise. I talk about these developments in subchapters of our new book, Value Trap! You can read about the contents of the book on Amazon. I hope that we hear more about these developments on a larger scale in the coming years. How wonderful that might be. … Read more

ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

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“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more

DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn’t look like the timing could have been much better.  Changes to Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio Removing Novartis (NVS) -3.5%-5.5% Adding Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) +3.5%-5.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA The back half of 2018 was among the most exciting in Valuentum’s history. For one, we might have made one of our best “market-direction” calls since inception in practically calling the near-term bottom December 26. In hindsight, it’s clear the market had overreacted, but at the time, going to “fully … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

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Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more

News Roundup: Tesla, Gap, eBay, Stericycle, Foot Locker, and Monster Beverage

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  No changes to newsletter portfolios By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s a lot of news out on the first day of March 2019. Tesla’s (TSLA) big reveal was that it will be moving strictly to online purchases in a cost-savings move and that it now has the efficiencies in place to roll out a more-affordable $35,000 Model 3. We’re excited about the development, but we have to admit that we’re still skeptical of the company’s long-term success given the fierceness of the competitive environment, not the least of which is the electronic line-up at General Motors (GM), which remains an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. As it relates to other news, Gap … Read more

Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!

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Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions. Dear members, I wanted to first of all welcome our new members. There have been a lot of new ones during the past few weeks. Thank you. The buzz might be coming from the new book launch, Value Trap. If you haven’t read the book yet, please do so here. Members can get the pdf digital download today at 25% off. For new members, reading this book is simply par for the course to get a feel for how we look at … Read more

Earnings Roundup: Amazon, Facebook, Honeywell, PayPal, Visa

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Let’s talk about our views on Amazon, Facebook, Honeywell, PayPal, and Visa. We think Facebook’s equity offers the biggest bargain, but Visa remains our top idea, as it has been for some time. By Brian Nelson, CFA Amazon’s Shares Are Trading Below Our Fair Value Estimate But Sensitivity to Assumptions Is Great Image shown: The probability distribution of our fair value estimate range for Amazon. The company is trading below our fair value estimate of ~$2,000, but above the low end of the fair value estimate range of ~$1,500. We think shares are fairly valued if they are trading on the yellow line. Amazon’s fair value estimate is very sensitive to its operating margin. Here are the three things that … Read more

Consider Selling Discipline = Systematic, Forward-looking, Repeatable

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Image shown: An illustration of Valuentum’s call on Kinder Morgan during 2015. You can read about this in more detail in the Preface of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. For a consider-selling discipline to be successful, it must be systematic, forward-looking and repeatable. The Valuentum process worked equally well with General Electric during 2017 (image later in note). No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone! The markets took a shellacking yesterday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) falling over 300 points during the trading session January 22. Had there not been a near-100 point leap in the Dow during the past few minutes of trading, the fallout may have been worse. Most are … Read more

Conference Call Coming Soon, Catch Up This Weekend

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Image shown: The markets continue to rally significantly since the near-term bottom in December. Here’s the email we sent to members December 26.  No changes to simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (contact us if you missed the latest notification regarding the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio). This article was sent to members via email January 19. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. Conference Call Monday, January 28, 11amET/10amCT. We’ll talk about website navigation, how to use the stock and dividend reports, and dig deep into our capital-appreciation and dividend growth methodology. Details to follow, but add this date/time to your calendar. Read what some of our members have … Read more