DIS

5 Things We Learned in 2019

by

5 Things We Learned in 2019      “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it.” — George Orwell By Brian Nelson, CFA    I’m looking at the beautiful Smoky Mountains in Tennessee as I’m writing this piece. I hope that you and yours are having a wonderful holiday season with family and friends. I wanted to share with you a few things that I think investors learned during 2019. Before I do, however, you’re probably wondering why I decided to lead in with this particular quote from Orwell. — — The quote, in some ways, is a reflection of how I think many approach truth in finance. Maybe they don’t … Read more

Economic Commentary: Marks, Dalio, and the Discount Rate

by

Image Source: Mike Cohen We sat down with the Valuentum team to discuss their latest thoughts on recent economic developments. To kick off the conversation, let’s start with the team’s views on the latest memo from Oaktree’s Howard Marks: Mysterious. For those that don’t know Howard, he is the Director and Co-Chairman of Oaktree, which managed about $122 billion in AUM, as of September 2019. The memo goes into depth on the reasons for negative interest rates, the impact of negative interest rates, and opines on whether the US will ever see negative interest rates. Then, we’ll go from there! Brian Nelson: The concept of negative interest rates is not merely academic, but they have far-reaching implications across the global … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Media Entertainment Industry

by

Structure of the Media (entertainment) Industry The media (entertainment) industry spans firms with diversified worldwide entertainment operations to those that specialize primarily in motion picture production and technologies. Firms with media network businesses compete for viewers with other networks, while companies with studio entertainment businesses compete with all forms of entertainment. A significant number of companies produce theatrical/television films, and success depends on unpredictable public preferences. The strongest participants will consistently create filmed entertainment and/or cable programming that consumers want. We’re neutral on the group. For our coverage of firms in the Media (entertainment) industry, please click here.

Economic Commentary: Robots, Value Trap, and Politics on the Markets

by

Tickerized for stocks in the DIA. Valuentum sat down for the latest installment of its periodic economic commentary, and the team tackled a wide array of topics, from robots on Wall Street, to President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s new book Value Trap, to political influence on the markets and boyond. Let’s set the stage with a prompt from a recent Bloomberg article, “The Master of Robots…Coming for Wall Street:” “The problem is, computer-powered strategies are struggling to live up to the hype, with a Eurekahedge index of AI hedge funds lagging peers in recent years. That spells opportunity for the likes of Lopez de Prado with his outfit True Positive Technologies — a dig at the erroneous conclusions derived … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

by

Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Apple Surges Higher!

by

Image Shown: Shares of Apple continue to surge higher and were supported by positive US-China trade talk news on Friday October 11. By Callum Turcan One of our favorite companies, Apple (AAPL), has been off to the races with shares pushing up into the mid-$230s as of this writing. Apple is a top holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We value Apple at up to $266 per share at the top end of our fair value estimate range, and shares of AAPL yield 1.3% as of this writing. Please note Apple’s fiscal year ends in late September. Let’s start out by covering an area Apple has had some trouble with over the past few … Read more

Economic Commentary: Apple $225+, Brokers Tumble, Auto Sales Look Tired

by

“Though all signs point to increased volatility, we maintain our view that we’re well-positioned in the newsletter portfolios, and the ideas highlighted in the Exclusive publication consider the backdrop economic conditions we closely monitor.” — Brian Nelson, CFA There has been plenty of news in the markets this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) experiencing significant declines only to bounce back a bit. From where we stand, the markets look vulnerable technically, but that doesn’t mean we’re looking to change anything in the newsletter portfolios. We have some dry powder in the form of a ~10% cash weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The disappointing September ADP jobs report added to lower-than-expected ISM (Institute … Read more

Economic Roundtable: “Value” Versus “Growth” Rotation

by

Tickerized for the DIA. “This kind of trading activity could be setting the stage for a big quant fund blow up, if the kind of leverage it takes to move the markets to this magnitude was applied. All it may take is for the B/M “value” factor to continue to suffer in the coming 12-18 months–it’s possible we could see a few quant firms go belly up. My guess is that market participants are paying very close attention to this activity, and if they “smell blood,” things could get ugly.” – Brian Nelson, CFA Earlier this week, the markets experienced significant internal “rotation,” as cyclicals and “value” stocks materially outperformed their defensive and “growth” counterparts, all the while the broader … Read more

Apple Makes Its Big Push Into Services

by

Image Shown: Apple announced that Apple TV+ would launch November 1, 2019, during its big update event on September 10. This marks the beginning of Apple’s transition from a hardware and software company to a hardware, software, and services giant. By Callum Turcan On September 10, Apple Inc (AAPL) held its big hardware and software event but the real star of the show was services. Namely, Apple TV+ which will launch this upcoming November 1 at the relatively low price of just $4.99 per month. That’s below the starting price point offered by Apple’s (future) video streaming competitors including Netflix (NFLX), Walt Disney Company (DIS), and others. Apple is coming out swinging with star studded launches of its own exclusive … Read more

Consider This Blue Chip High Yield Dividend Play

by

Image Shown: Shares of AT&T moved higher on September 9 after hedge fund manager Elliott Management, run by multibillionaire activist investor Paul Singer, disclosed a $3.2 billion stake in the firm. The hedge fund has big plans for AT&T and is pushing for changes at the telecommunications, media, and entertainment company. By Callum Turcan High Yield Dividend Newsletter holding AT&T (T) was back in the news this Monday (September 9) as activist investor Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Management, announced that the hedge fund manager had acquired a $3.2 billion stake in the company. Through a four-point plan, dubbed “the Activating AT&T Plan” according to the letter Elliott Management sent AT&T pushing for change, Elliot Management thinks shares of T … Read more