CRM

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

by

Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

Oracle’s Dividend Growth Trajectory Remains Solid

by

Image Source: Oracle Corporation – Financial Analyst Meeting Presentation, September 2019 By Callum Turcan On December 12, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) reported second quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (period ended November 30, 2019). Massive share repurchases reduced Oracle’s diluted outstanding weighted-average share count from 3,908 million in the first half of fiscal 2018 to 3,370 million in the first half of fiscal 2019. That played a key role in boosting Oracle’s EPS performance (diluted GAAP EPS was up 12% year-over-year in the first half of fiscal 2020) as its revenues were broadly flat during this period. We continue to like Oracle in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio given the strength of its free cash flow profile and promising outlook. Shares … Read more

Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Holding Microsoft Secures a Big Win

by

Image Shown: Shares of Microsoft Corporation continue to make new highs and we think MSFT may test the upper end of our fair value range given the company’s improving growth outlook. By Callum Turcan Shares of Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) continue to climb higher. We think shares could test the upper end of our fair value estimate range, which currently sits at $166 per share, comfortably above where Microsoft’s stock is trading at as of this writing (~$149 per share). Recent events have augmented the company’s free cash flow potential, with an eye towards the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (‘JEDI’) contract win. Shares of MSFT yield ~1.4% as of this writing. Microsoft Wins The US Department … Read more

Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Holding Microsoft Posts a Nice Quarter

by

Image Source: Mike Mozart By Callum Turcan On Wednesday October 23, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported first quarter results for fiscal 2020 (period ended September 30) after the market close that saw shares of MSFT move higher the next day. The tech giant beat consensus estimates on both the top and bottom line due to sustained momentum at its cloud offerings, with growth led by Azure and Office 365. During the first quarter, Microsoft’s Office 365 commercial monthly active users passed 200 million. We continue to like Microsoft’s free cash flow growth potential and see the firm sporting a great dividend growth trajectory given its pristine balance sheet and quality cash flow profile. Shares of MSFT yield … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

by

Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Oracle Makes a Big Push Into the Cloud

by

Image Source: Oracle Corporation – September 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On Monday October 7, Reuters reported that Oracle Corporation (ORCL) planned to hire an additional ~2,000 workers to support the tech giant’s cloud expansion strategy. These new jobs would be centered around San Francisco, Seattle, and India. As of May 31, 2019, Oracle had 136,000 full-time employees located around the world with 18,000 of those employees supporting the firm’s cloud computing division. Most importantly, Oracle plans to launch another 20 cloud regions by the end of 2020 that would complement its existing 16 cloud regions, vastly augmenting its ability to cater to international customers (and to US-based clients as well). We continue to like Oracle in our Dividend … Read more

Oracle’s Cloud Business Solid; CEO Hurd Taking Some Time Off

by

Oracle’s strong Dividend Cushion ratio reflects considerable free cash flow generation in excess of cash dividends paid. Fiscal first quarter free cash flow of $5.6 billion covered cash dividends paid of $795 million more than 7 times. By Brian Nelson, CFA On September 11, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Oracle (ORCL) posted solid fiscal first-quarter 2020 results (ends August 31), but the company’s results were overshadowed by a slight revenue miss on the top line and news that CEO Mark Hurd would take a leave of absence; we wish him a speedy return to good health. Co-CEO Safra Catz and founder Larry Ellison will cover his responsibilities while away. Oracle remains in good hands. Oracle’s total revenue advanced 2% in … Read more

Ebix Might Be a Value Trap

by

Image Source: Ebix Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Ebix Inc (EBIX) is a leading international provider of on-demand software and e-commerce services to the healthcare, insurance, financial, and e-learning industries. In our latest 16-page stock report covering Ebix, which can be viewed here, the low end of the fair value estimate range stands at $44/share. With shares of Ebix trading well below that at ~$34/share as of this writing, it would appear at first glance that the technology company may be an appealing capital appreciation opportunity. However, please note that the firm’s techincals are terrible and have been getting worse after staging a short-lived recovery in early-2019, indicating the firm may represent a Value Trap. As of this … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Software Industry

by

Structure of the Software Industry Firms that serve the mature software markets—or those consisting of basic business applications—have powerful distribution channels, large installed bases, and fortress balance sheets. These entrenched competitors benefit from significant customer switching costs, which make it nearly impossible for new entrants to gain a foothold. Participants generally benefit from high-margin license revenue and generate significant returns on investment. Still, the shift to cloud computing has created both opportunities and challenges, and the enterprise software landscape continues to evolve. We like the group. We’ve optimized our tehnology coverage. To access the reports, please select here.

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

by

Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more