CMG

In the News: Amazon, GE, Kraft-Heinz, Disney, CVS Health, Gilead

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We’re reiterating the large range of fair value outcomes for Amazon. We’re staying far away from General Electric and Kraft-Heinz. Netflix may have its back against the ropes with Disney Plus. CVS Health and Gilead were two setbacks in the newsletter portfolios in the past, but we kept losses to a minimum and new ideas more than offset the weakness. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to do very well. By Brian Nelson, CFA Amazon (AMZN) Image Shown: Amazon has a large range of fair value outcomes, and shares are trading roughly in line with our fair value estimate. The e-commerce powerhouse’s shares have come in aggressively since it reported second-quarter results July 25. We get a lot of questions … Read more

McDonald’s Not on the Value Menu

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We can’t get anywhere close to McDonald’s share price with our discounted cash-flow valuation process. That doesn’t mean that shares are destined to fall, but it may indicate that the stock has pulled forward future returns. In any case, investors in McDonald’s should be cautious. By Brian Nelson, CFA McDonald’s (MCD) has done a wonderful job in years past, pursuing all-day breakfast and transitioning (even) more to a franchise business model, but these changes are now behind the fast-food restaurant. Our fair value estimate for McDonald’s is in the mid-$150s (its shares are trading over $200), and frankly, we’re having a very difficult time coming anywhere close to how high the market is valuing shares. During the firm’s second-quarter results, … Read more

Google, Intel — Yes!

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Google, Intel — Yes! — Let’s talk Google and Intel, remind you that we’ve removed Chipotle, Xilinx, and Boeing from the newsletter portfolios some time ago. I’ll talk a little about PayPal’s run higher and address some other themes, including contingent liabilities with J&J and 3M. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We don’t get everything right, of course, but lately, we’ve been really doing a great job getting the right ideas in front of you! I’m super proud of our team at Valuentum, and I hope that you are capitalizing on our research. — In a prior article, I talked about how Facebook (FB) and Visa (V), two top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, were on fire … Read more

Cracker Barrel ‘s Lofty (and Hidden) Dividend Yield

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Image Source: Cracker Barrel Presentation (10/17) By Brian Nelson, CFA Incredible. Cracker Barrel (CBRL) just issued announced another special dividend, to the tune of $3 per share. This special dividend is in addition to the regular quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share, which was increased 4% from the previous quarterly dividend of $1.25 per share. All in, annualizing the new quarterly rate and including the special dividend in the sum, Cracker Barrel yields nearly 5% at the time of this writing. You won’t hear many talking about the firm’s lofty yield because a large part of it has been from the special-dividend variety, which has been recurring for the past many years. On a fundamental basis, we have no qualms … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

When We Get It “Wrong” — How To Think About Our Methodology In Action

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When We Get It “Wrong” — How To Think About Our Methodology In Action Image: Chipotle (CMG) was one of our best calls in 2019.   Image: Verint (VRNT) was a controversial idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio that worked out great for members this year.   Image: Visa (V) has been the top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter for as long as we can remember. In December 2017, when we migrated to weighting ranges for ideas in the newsletter portfolio, the company’s “weight” was 8.6%. The image above shows its performance relative to the S&P 500 (SPY) since then. Source (pdf). — Let’s talk about the newsletter portfolios, some areas where we’ve made mistakes, and how some members use our services. … Read more

3M Plunges Toward Fair Value, More Earnings Reports

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Several companies reported difficult earnings reports, including 3M, UPS, WWE, and Xilinx. No changes to the newsletter portfolios.    — In alphabetic order by ticker symbol: MMM, CMG, FCX, HSY, TSLA, UPS, WM, WWE, XLNX  —  3M (MMM): Our $175 fair value estimate remains unchanged following one of 3M’s worst quarterly reports in a long time. Not only did this industrial conglomerate miss both the top- and bottom-line in its first-quarter results April 25, but it also reduced its fiscal 2019 earnings guidance to the range of $9.25-$9.75 from $10.45-$10.90 previously, well below the consensus forecast. Clearly, the quarterly performance and outlook were poor, but 3M’s shares were also overpriced. The company finished the trading session down 13%. Enterprise valuation matters. The drop … Read more

ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

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“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more

Best Idea Verint Surges — Another Fortunate Call

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Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Verint (VRNT) surged after it reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings after the close March 27. The company was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio April 2017. It was a controversial idea, but it is paying off big time! This article was sent to members via email March 27. Note: The Financial Advisor Level member publications will be released April 15. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wrote up a rather long email today. You can access that email here. One of our best ideas, Verint (VRNT) is surging. If you recall, this was quite the controversial name, but we stuck with it, and it is paying off nicely.  The stock is rallying on upside first-quarter … Read more

How To Think About Our Methodology In Action

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Image shown: Chipotle (CMG) has been one of our best calls so far in 2019. No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, BRK.B, CMG, CVS, FB, GE, JPM, KMI, PYPL, V, XLNX.  Let’s talk about the newsletter portfolios, some areas where we’ve made mistakes, and how some members use our services. By Brian Nelson, CFA I love it when I get questions because it shows the engagement of our members. I appreciate that very much. Though there are other considerations, of course, the Valuentum methodology is really quite simple: dividend growth considerations aside, we like undervalued ideas that are going up, and we generally won’t remove ideas that are overvalued until their technical/momentum indicators turn over. Here’s more about our … Read more