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Markets Still Bouncing Nicely

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Image shown: This holiday season was mighty hectic, and not many were anticipating the volatility we experienced. Here’s where the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios went to “fully invested,” reducing a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of their respective ranges for each portfolio, respectively. Email. No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios Brian Nelson, CFA After what perhaps has been the most volatile December in stock market history, the markets are off to the races in January. We continue to watch the broader equity markets closely, but directionally the call to go to “zero” in cash after the close December 26 has worked out, for anyone that received the notification after that date. … Read more

Fed Might Slow After All, Bank Reports Just Okay

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Image shown: The yield curve is flattening. Source: Federal Reserve Bank, St. Louis. The biggest question with Fed policy is whether the FOMC will purposefully cause an inversion in the yield curve. If it thinks the market is manipulating long rates to influence its policy, it may very well go forward with rate hikes. If it doesn’t, it may very well slow the pace of rate hikes or even pause them. The behavioral implications of a yield-curve inversion may be more significant than the inversion, itself, however. No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios Brian Nelson, CFA On January 10, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard offered a number of perspectives on 2019 monetary policy. … Read more

Value Trap, More Volatility; We’re Waiting and Watching

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Image shown: The decision to remove GE from the simulated newsletter portfolios when we did may have been our best call yet.  In this note, let’s talk about the importance of reading Value Trap, learn why we’ve gone “fully invested,” talk a little bit about put options, learn some of the intricacies of the Valuentum process, find out where to find VBI rankings to download and sort, and talk about some of our recently-highlighted ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios. No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios Brian Nelson, CFA Trust you are having a wonderful Monday morning! I hope that many of you made the conference call last Thursday at 11amET, but if you didn’t, we’ll have another one coming soon. … Read more

The Intricacies of the Valuentum Process

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Let’s take a quick overview of the Valuentum processes for capital appreciation and dividend growth with a discussion of how we use the Valuentum Buying Index and the Dividend Cushion ratio. By Brian Nelson, CFA There is a lot behind the Valuentum processes for capital appreciation and dividend growth, respectively, and both the criteria for inclusion to either the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are different. Our best ideas at any time, however, are always included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We use our research as a means to identify new ideas for consideration in the simulated newsletter portfolios, as well as to consider removing ideas from the simulated newsletter portfolios. As it relates to … Read more

Catching the Bottom?

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Image shown: The depths of how far the S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen more recently, and the timing of the decision to move to being “fully invested” in simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.   No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios. This article was sent to members via email January 9. That email can be found at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA On the evening of December 26, we emailed members that we were moving to “fully invested” in both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. First of all, please let me apologize. I wanted to stay in front of members during one of the most volatile times … Read more

Markets Up Big; Upside Volatility

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Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August 2017. The index has broken through support and is now bouncing back to resistance. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone, Are you watching these markets? This is incredible. The Dow finished down 660 points yesterday (briefly dropping 700 points), and today, the Dow is currently trading up 600 points at the time of this writing. Granted, there was Apple’s (AAPL) poor first-quarter 2019 guidance yesterday and the strong jobs report today, but this volatility is not “normal,” no matter what others are saying. A couple announcements up front. For those that already ordered our book Value Trap, I will send you the pdf download to your email address just to make sure … Read more

ETF Analysis: Banks and Financials

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Please select the image below to download the report. Tickerized for ETFs under coverage and stocks included in the XLF.

The Coming “Goldman Sachs Era”

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Valuentum covers recent developments in the financials sector, including hopes for a relaxation of certain prohibitive Dodd-Frank rules that, if repealed, could pave the way for improved economic returns across the banking sector during the Trump administration. A look back at the month of September 2008, and how Goldman Sachs may very well shape the financial markets during the next few years are two other areas in the piece. Financials stocks have come roaring back since Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. We’ve participated. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s been more than 8 years now. The month of September 2008 shaped my view of the financials and banking sector more than any other month possibly could–The … Read more

Podcast: Why ETFs and Roasting the Banks

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The Valuentum analyst team talks about why we don’t like the business models of banking entities, why they are currently destroying economic value, but also why the team includes exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. What gives? Find out in this ~9 minute podcast. If you cannot view the video, please view the transcript that follows. Tickerized for holdings in the exchange traded funds, XLF and KBE, and for various financials-oriented ETFs.  Kris Rosemann: Hello and welcome to the Valuentum Securities podcast. My name is Kris Rosemann Associate Investment Analyst at Valuentum. With me is Chris Araos and Brian Nelson President of Equity Research and ETF Analysis at Valuentum. Today, we are going to have a quick discussion over … Read more

8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed

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8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more