Member Articles

Brace for More Volatility

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Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August of last year. The markets have broken through key support levels, and now support has become resistance. Volatility remains heightened since the low-vol ETN blew up in February. This article is the introduction to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter, both of which will be released today due to the holiday January 1. By Brian Nelson, CFA Markets are facing big pressure on the trading session January 3. There’s more to the story than rising interest rates. There’s more to the story than the US-China trade war. There’s more to the story than concerns about the political environment. Price-agnostic (indexing and quant) trading, as I outline in … Read more

Here It Comes… Apple’s Shot Across the Bow

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Image Source: Tinh tế Photo Apple surprised the market by issuing first-quarter 2019 guidance below expectations. The company pointed to weakness in China as the main culprit. We continue to expect heightened levels of volatility, and investors in key American icons that might be impacted by consumer backlash in China should be on high alert. No changes to the simulated newsletter portfolios as a result of the news. By Brian Nelson, CFA We had yet another volatile day to kick off the new year. The Dow opened with a near 400-point slide and then jumped considerably mid-session only to barely finish higher. You have to read Value Trap. You’ll know exactly what I’m talking about. In case you missed the announcement, … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

The Price-versus-Estimated Fair Value Perspective; Upcoming Publishing Schedule

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This article was sent to members via email December 28. You can access that email at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I hope each and everyone of you is having a wonderful holiday season! Boy was this week an exciting one. Yours truly has been warning about excess volatility for many months, and the month of December showed just how damaging price-agnostic trading (indexing, quant) can be to the marketplace. According to MarketWatch, Monday amounted to the worst trading session for a Christmas Eve ever. Wednesday was the biggest one-day point rise in the Dow ever, and Thursday had the biggest intraday swing for the Dow since 2011. According to SentimenTrader, there has only been … Read more

Whoa Nelly!

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This article was sent to members via email December 27. That email can be accessed via the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, With just an hour or two left in the trading session December 27, the Dow was down some 600 points. Incredibly, it ended up rallying into the close to finish up 260 points. Though there have been a few big intra-day reversals like this one in the past, there wasn’t much news at all today. The market simply rallied 850+ points off the bottom, and that was that. What’s more, this followed a 1,000+ point surge the day prior. If you recall, yesterday, we moved the cash positions in the simulated Best … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending December 28

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending December 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE): now $0.31 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. Axis Capital Holdings (AXS): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.39. CoreSite Realty (COR): now $1.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.03. Edison (EIX): now $0.6125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.605. FMC (FMC): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.165. Firms Lowering Their Dividends This Week Pacific Coast Oil Trust … Read more

This Market Will Eat You Up

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This article was sent to members via email December 26. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, As you can probably tell, I’ve finally put my book behind me. It’s called Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. In it, I explain my story. I think after reading the text you’ll have a better understanding about why we champion the good calls we make and don’t let others tell our story. In this marketplace, there will be no shortage of people telling us that we’re wrong. They’ll be no shortage of people not giving us credit for our work. They’ll even be no shortage of people that will still say we’re … Read more

It’s the Little Things

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This article was sent to members via email December 26. That email can be accessed via the link that follows this article.  By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, How about a 1,000+ surge on the Dow today for some holiday cheer!  I can’t begin to tell about the outpouring of support our firm received from member emails recently. It’s always great to have such a loyal subscriber base, and I can’t thank you enough for that. Some of you keep passing along thoughts to make Valuentum better, and I cannot begin to tell you how much I appreciate that.   That said, now is the time to stay focused, and we think laser-focused is the best way to describe our views … Read more

Market Structure Is the Cause of the Volatility

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This article was sent to members via email December 25. That email can be accessed via the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA What a beautiful time of the year. I’m writing to you from Gatlinburg, Tennessee, in the beautiful Smoky Mountains. I know it’s easy to have anxiety about the markets, but please be sure to find time to spend with friends and family this holiday season. Money, we can make more of. Time, we cannot. May you and yours have a blessed holiday season. Christmas Eve was another market rout. Secretary Treasury Steven Mnuchin tried to ease the market’s concerns by ensuring that the biggest of the banks had sufficient liquidity. This is textbook policy in the … Read more

Prudence and Experience Wins Again

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This article was sent to members via email December 23. You can access that email at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Many of you may be just checking your account statements or retirement account balances and might be a little disappointed for what might become the worst December return in the stock markets since the 1930s.This has certainly been a December to remember, but not for good reasons. Though things look bleak heading into the remaining days of 2018 and into 2019, there’s really no need to panic at all. For those following the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, it’s easy to be disappointed with ideas such as Facebook and Johnson & Johnson, but you’re missing … Read more