TME

Meta’s Threads Launch Immaterial to Meta But Tragic for Twitter

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Image: Threads logo. Meta has launched a Twitter-killer with its new real-time online conversation app, Threads. By Brian Nelson, CFA Big cap tech continues to innovate and encroach upon each other’s territory, and the latest example is Meta’s (META) expansion into real-time online conversation with its new app Threads that competes directly with Elon Musk’s Twitter. Consumers have been looking for an alternative to Twitter after Musk made a number of big changes to keep the bird app afloat, and Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg is now pouncing on the opportunity to take share in this area. Unlike other rival platforms such as Truth Social (DWAC), users of Threads will be able leverage Instagram to log in to Threads and easily … Read more

We’re Glad Microsoft Sees Promise in ChatGPT

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Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA Not having to worry about an upstart taking ChatGPT to the finish line is a big relief for the newsletter portfolios. Having already invested $1 billion in ChatGPT’s owner OpenAI in 2019, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) may invest as much as $10 billion more in the artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot. Reports indicate that Microsoft would own a 49% stake in OpenAI, while getting a 75% share of OpenAI’s earnings. The greater control over ChatGPT, of which we brought to readers attention in our December 5 note, “Maintaining Our Fair Value Estimates Across Ad-Driven Social Media Equities In Light of Long Term AI-Driven Chatbot Threats,” will likely augment Microsoft’s search technology and its web … Read more

Maintaining Our Fair Value Estimates Across Ad-Driven Social Media Equities In Light of Long Term AI-Driven Chatbot Threats

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Image: ChatGPT is taking the Internet by storm. A poem generated by the AI-driven chatbot in a matter of seconds about outperforming the stock market. Image Source: ChatGPT By Brian Nelson, CFA We weren’t just having fun when we tested a new chatbot asking it to write a poem about outperforming the market. In case you haven’t heard yet, making the rounds on social media is a new artificial intelligence [AI] tool called ChatGPT. The Internet is literally abuzz on the potential prospects of this chatbot phenomenon, and after trying it out for ourselves, we think it has the long-term potential to be the real deal. ChatGPT can do a lot of things. It can write poems pretending to be … Read more

Chinese Stocks Bludgeoned!

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Image: Large cap Chinese equities are now back to levels first reached more than 15 years ago on a price-only basis, to levels first attained in early 2006. By Brian Nelson, CFA Successful investing is as much about selecting big winners such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) as it is about avoiding big losers – and wow have Chinese stocks been bludgeoned! The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) traded down nearly 10% on October 24, 2022, putting its 5-year declines at a whopping 50%+, on a price-only basis. The FXI is now back to levels, on a price-only basis, first reached at the beginning of 2006, more than 15 years ago. We don’t include any Chinese ADRs in … Read more

Valuentum: Outlook for Europe, China Is Bleak

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Video: Valuentum’s Associate Director of Research and Co-Portfolio Manager of the simulated newsletter portfolios, Callum Turcan, shares his thoughts about the global economy. Europe is facing considerable pressure from energy prices, while China may face a mortgage meltdown. Join Valuentum for this brief 6 minute video to get up to speed on the goings-on of the global economy and what troubles may be lurking ahead. –——— Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information … Read more

Best Idea Disney Rebounding Nicely; Shares Look Cheap

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Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company strengthened February 9 in the wake of the media and entertainment giant’s latest earnings report. We include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Callum Turcan On February 9, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported first-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings (period ended January 1, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. A sharp rebound at its ‘Disney Parks, Experiences and Products’ unit impressed investors and shares of DIS are strengthening nicely in the wake of its latest earnings report. We are big fans of Disney and include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate stands … Read more

Meta Platforms (Facebook), One of the Most Underpriced Stocks on the Market

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Image Shown: Meta Platforms Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan In late October 2021, the company now known as Meta Platforms Inc (FB) announced its name change from Facebook to highlight its focus on the “metaverse,” a digital universe that Meta Platforms is investing heavily in. The metaverse is supposed to be a digital world where video gaming, social media, community and family gatherings, TV and movie watching, card game and board game playing, major entertainment events and related venues, and various other activities come together in an immersive experience that ultimately could generate a lot of revenue for Meta Platforms. In 2014, then-Facebook announced it was acquiring Oculus VR, a maker of virtual … Read more

Alphabet Launches Higher

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Image: Our fair value estimate of Alphabet has continued to lead the stock higher, and shares continued to deliver following the company’s third-quarter report, released October 28. By Brian Nelson, CFA Our long-term thesis and the top weighting of Google parent company, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is unchanged following the company’s fantastic third-quarter report, released October 28. During the period, revenue advanced 41% on a year-over-year basis as the company’s operating margin swelled ~8 percentage points to drive diluted earnings per share to $27.99, beating consensus by nice margin. We’re reiterating our $3,500 fair value estimate for shares. Here is what Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google had to say in the press release: … Read more

Chinese Stocks Getting Hammered

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Image shown: A confluence of factors are driving Chinese stocks lower, not the least of which is heightened regulatory concerns. By Brian Nelson, CFA The collapse in Chinese equities (FXI) (MCHI) during the trading session July 26 is a reminder (again) why you should consider combining momentum with *enterprise valuation* in stocks, as in the Valuentum process. It’s not enough for you to think a stock is undervalued or cheap. The market must agree with you, too. A falling stock price says the market disagrees. Our favorite ideas for consideration are always in the newsletter portfolios, whether the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, or High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. We do not have any direct exposure to … Read more

Nothing May Derail the U.S. Economy In the Long Run

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Image Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. U.S. gross domestic product is back on the upswing, and we fully expect the U.S. economy to recover, and then continue its expansion in coming years. U.S. GDP, January 1947 through October 2020. Warren Buffett may have said it best in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2020 Annual Report: “Never bet against America.” By Brian Nelson, CFA The long-term U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) chart provides a good lesson in perspective. For one, look at how resilient the U.S. economy has been during the post-World War II era. Remember our “Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am” article we wrote in mid-May 2020 and then republished again in early June 2020? The S&P 500 was trading below 2,900 … Read more