MUB

Don’t Let “Them” Spin the Narrative

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s call it how it is: 2022 was an absolute nightmare for the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. During the year, the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio was down 16.9%, according to data from the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Shares (VBIAX). During 2022, the S&P 500 (SPY) index was down 18.2%, meaning that the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, despite allocating to 40% bonds, captured over 90% of the downside risk. Modern portfolio theory is dead: Stocks have done far better than bonds during upswings, and only slightly worse during downturns. The risk/reward for the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio just doesn’t add up anymore. Bond prices did not move inversely to stock prices during the COVID-19 meltdown, and they did not move inversely … Read more

The Stock Market Is Nearing Technical Support Levels

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Image: This year has been a difficult one for equity investors, but the selling pressure that has been common in the markets may start to slow as broader indices such as the S&P 500 begin to approach technical support levels. On the S&P 500, we think there is substantial technical support in the 3,200-3,500 range, which to us suggests that further near-term downside may be limited. The S&P 500 closed at 3,674.84 on Friday, June 17, and we think fair value is much higher. By Brian Nelson, CFA  It’s been difficult to watch the stock market give up much of the gains reaped over the past year or so during the selling barrage that has occurred thus far in 2022. … Read more

Bitcoin, U.S. Large Cap Growth, and Technology Continue to Dominate Returns

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Image source: Seeking Alpha, retrieved November 28 —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.  The Benefits of Premium Membership Sign Up Today. First 14 days FREE!  At Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m], we strive to stand out from the crowd. Most investment research publishers fall into a few camps, whether it be value, growth, income, momentum, chartist or some variant of the aforementioned. We think each in its own right holds merit, but the combination of these approaches is even more powerful. After all, stock price movements aren’t just driven by investors of the value or … Read more

Valuentum Weekly

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Image: Bitcoin, technology and large cap growth have led the pack the past 5 years while pipeline MLPs, crude oil and energy stocks have fallen way behind. Large cap growth > small cap value. Bonds, non-US stocks continue to lag. The Valuentum Weekly is a brand-new weekly market commentary from Valuentum Securities, released each weekend in digital form. The Valuentum Weekly offers members a weekly synopsis of the markets and major events. It will be straight and to-the-point. Our goal is to deliver to you the latest information and insights. We welcome your feedback on how we can make the Valuentum Weekly as useful and as relevant for you as ever! Takeaways The markets offer investors an asymmetric risk opportunity, … Read more

Excerpt from ‘Value Trap’ 2nd Edition: MPT Sounds a Lot Like “Empty”

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The second edition of President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s book ‘Value Trap’ will be released in the coming weeks. Here is a short excerpt to whet your appetite: — … — Enterprise valuation, or the discounted cash-flow framework, remains at the center of finance, in my view, and the core of what we do at Valuentum. The process and its key cash-based components helped deliver a suite of outperforming equity considerations at a time when modern portfolio theory (MPT) and diversification benefits were breaking down. Both stocks and bonds, for example, dropped aggressively in unison during the COVID-19 crisis, and the popular U.S. 60-40 stock/bond portfolio “suffered one of its worst performances since the 1960s” during the first quarter … Read more

Fed and Treasury Efforts Might Not Be Enough to Avoid Another Great Depression

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Image: The Energy Select Sector SPDR and Financial Select Sector SPDR, two securities removed from both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in August 2019 have been ravaged during this market selloff. We maintain our view that the energy and banking sectors are worth avoiding during this market meltdown. By Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s not mince words: We’re facing a global financial crisis and the real and growing probability of another Great Depression (not recession, but depression). The Fed has unleashed just about every backstop facility that it did during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, with the announcement the morning of March 23, and it is now even buying corporate bond ETFs (LQD). It’s possible … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 6

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 6. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aecon (AEGXF): now CAD 0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.145. Alamos Gold (AGI): now $0.015 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.010. Americold Realty Trust (COLD): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term (FINS): now $0.1116 per share monthly dividend, was $0.1112. Armanino Foods of Distinction (AMNF): now $0.0275 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0250. B. Riley Financial … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 5

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 5. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Allied Motion Technologies (AMOT): now $0.03 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.025. American International Group (AIG): now $0.36 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. Apple (AAPL): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.40. ARC Resources (ARX:CA): now CAD 0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.15. Berry (BRY): now $0.12 per … Read more