FXB

Sharp Curves Ahead for US Auto Market?

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“Auto is clearly a little stretched, in my opinion…Someone is going to get hurt…We don’t do much of that.” — JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Yahoo Finance, June 2016  The month of May saw many major automakers report significant declines in sales in the US. Could the effect of pent-up demand for autos finally be slowing? An overheated loan market is adding concern to the situation. By Kris Rosemann Major automakers will be forced to make some important decisions in coming months. The US auto market is clearly slowing from the breakneck pace it set last year, particularly late last year, as total US auto sales fell 6% in May 2016 from May 2015. The strength of the rally in recent … Read more

Brexit: Secession Bells Are Ringing!

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First Baptist Church in Columbia, S.C., where the first secession convention in the United States opened on Dec. 17, 1860. Source: Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Photo. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Web. 24 Jun. 2016. Global markets are plunging, and the implosion may still be in the early innings. Market valuations remain stretched among stagnant global economic growth, and “Brexit” may be the catalyst for a correction. In the paraphrased words of the well-known The Day of the Jackal author, Frederick Forsyth: the peasants have spoken. On June 23, the UK (EWU) held a referendum, in which anyone of voting age could take part, to decide whether the country should leave the European Union. The turnout was incredible at nearly 72%, and … Read more

When “Bad” News Is “Good” News…Take A Euro Trip?

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Pack the bags, kiss the grandkids, it’s time to do some traveling!!! Maybe to Europe? From a global perspective, for those whose wealth and income is generated in US dollars, you can arguably buy more with one US dollar today than at any other time in the past 12 years, according to a popular index that measures the value of the dollar versus a basket of other currencies. Expectations are being ratcheted up for impending interest rate hikes by the Fed, and this means that assets are flying into US greenbacks from all over the world. The dollar is strengthening against the euro, the pound, the loonie, the aussie, the rand, and the list goes on and on. This decade … Read more

Volatility Spikes, Oh Cisco, the Mighty US Dollar, and More

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Image Source: CBOE Let’s talk about recent market events May 17. There’s a lot going on. By Brian Nelson, CFA It looks like volatility is back in a big way, with “all 29 volatility indexes at the CBOE ris(ing) today,” one more-than-doubling, the CBOE Short-Term Volatility Index (VXST). The ridiculously-named “fear gauge” or “fear index” or the CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX (VIX) leapt nearly 50%. On May 17, we effectively bought volatility intraday by adding put options to the newsletter portfolios, both on the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Netflix, a company whose valuation we think remains ridiculous. We may continue to add put options on entities whose equity prices we believe have become too stretched, positions that may … Read more