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$45 Oil Prices!?!? There Is Never a Sense of Urgency When One Is Prepared

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Image Source: Macrotrends The bull market in energy (XLE) has lasted for the better part of a decade. Ever since the turn of the new century, energy perma-bulls have made the case that “black gold” (USO) should continue its ever-upward price advance thanks to ongoing demand from emerging and developing economies coupled with reduced inventories and areas of supply. We’re seeing this thesis challenged right at this moment. In deciding not to cut crude oil output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for the lack of a better phrase, is now essentially engaged in a price war with producers in the US that are using breakthrough technology to produce oil … Read more

Happy Thanksgiving! 5 Entrepreneurs To Be Thankful For!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA “Global Entrepreneurship Week” was November 17-23 this year, and the U.S. Congress continues to work diligently to establish the third Tuesday in November a national holiday celebrating the contributions of entrepreneurs to the U.S. as well as “honor those entrepreneurs who ignite innovation and inspire the next generation.” Today, this Thanksgiving, we wanted to celebrate the contributions of 5 entrepreneurs to be thankful for this holiday season. Feel free to add your favorite entrepreneur to this list as well and any obscure fact you want to share about him or her. The list is not meant to be comprehensive, but entertaining and educational. Please don’t forget to answer the bonus question below. Be sure to enjoy … Read more

The Correction: No Panic Selling on Columbus Day

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The past three years have been an anomaly, in our view, with the broader equity markets practically going straight up. For those new to the markets and stock investing, in general, this simply is not how the equity markets behave. Many stock pickers have even become frustrated as a result of the market’s steady-eddy advance with negligible meaningful swings during most of the past 36 months. The market, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), hasn’t had a 10% drop in nearly 1,100 days. As of last Friday’s close, we’re a mere 5.6% from the intra-day high on September 19. During the past three years, the market has made everyone look like a genius, and frankly it has been … Read more

Performance of the Valuentum Buying Index

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Note: A more recent analysis of the Valuentum Buying Index rating system can be accessed at the following link: /Value_and_Momentum_Within_Stocks_Too Two separate studies have reinforced the efficacy of the Valuentum Buying Index, both as a portfolio optimization tool and as an idea generator. If you cannot view the video, please consult the transcript that follows. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  The studies referred to in this video can be accessed as follows: Why Valuentum Buying Index Ratings Matter: /20141003_1 Valuentum’s Performance on Seeking Alpha: /20141009 Please be sure to read the studies closely in addition to watching the video or consulting the transcript below. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I’d like to talk … Read more

The Correction: Draghi; Chip, Telecom Warnings; Oil and MLPs

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The equity markets have been under significant pressure the past few weeks, and we think there is further downside to come. Our view is that the equity markets will be lower than today’s levels within the next 6-18 months, if not tomorrow or next week or next month. We’ve taken profits on cyclicals, and we’ve already closed out the put option hedges in both portfolios for a substantial gain (the latest transaction alert email can be accessed here). Europe appears to be in a giant mess again. The region hadn’t been strong by any stretch of the imagination, but we recently picked up material weakness during Ford’s (F) recent analyst day, which in part prompted us to take a very … Read more

What Members Are Talking About: Ford, Gilead, and Boeing

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Question #1 October 1, 2014 Brian: I have a quick question for you.  I read last night that Valuentum eliminated Ford (F) from their portfolio.  A few months ago you commented on the strength of Ford’s sales in emerging markets.  You have a range of 15-27 on Ford price using the DCF process.  With F trading currently under the low end of the range, would it still be prudent to sell the position?  I know clients have made gains since your recommendation in your portfolio, but wouldn’t it be more prudent to sell a position that is closer to fair value than one that is trading below its fair value range? If there is an updated report on F, I … Read more

The Correction: Protection Makes Sense

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When our team thinks about members, the one thing we want for them is to make money from our service. This sometimes means that we’re a bit cautious at times. For example, taking profits on Ford (F), Precision Castparts (PCP), and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) a couple days ago was not an easy thing to do. They’ve been huge winners. From a fundamental standpoint, we still like the companies, but market conditions and valuations cannot be ignored. Just like the profit-taking, we also think it was prudent to add protection in the form of put option contracts to the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio in light of a number of factors. The put option contracts amount to ~1.5% … Read more

This Just Feels Different…Mr. Brown

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We think the correction is coming. Here are 7 reasons why we plan to reduce exposure to cyclicals and add some protection to the portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA I hope you don’t mind my using baseball analogies. Baseball and investing are perhaps the only two endeavors where if you get more than half right, you’re at the top of the list. In any case, you don’t have to be a big baseball fan to appreciate the similarities. I used an example with Ted Williams in this piece about fat pitch investing, but there’s another analogy that is worth sharing. I’ve been to the Louisville Slugger Museum and Factory Tour a few times in the past couple years. My little … Read more