BWLD

ICYMI: 5 Concerns About Impending Rate Hikes

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The first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade came and went December 16, putting an environment of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) to an end, a policy that grew out of the Financial Crisis and the depths of the Great Recession late last decade. The Fed had paused plans to hike the federal funds rate for much of 2015 as a result, in our view, of getting a more informed read on the potential implications of emerging market developments–namely dislocations in the local Chinese equity markets (FXI) and recessionary conditions in Brazil (EWZ)–and the stock market crash (SPY) in the US in August that sent equities of some of the most well-known stocks including Apple (AAPL) and General Electric … Read more

Email Transaction Alerts

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We know many of you use our services for a wide variety of different reasons, whether for a primary source of fair value estimates and fair value ranges, to assess the risk of the sustainability of the dividend through our Dividend Cushion ratio, or to apply the Valuentum Buying Index as an overlay to your own processes and beyond. For those that are following changes to our newsletter portfolios, we’re going to make a few today. None of these should be surprising. First, we’re taking some profits in Altria (MO), removing half of our position in both newsletter portfolios. Specifically, we’ll be removing 158 shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and 101 shares in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio … Read more

We’ll Be Looking to Add to B-Dubs Sometime after the Drop

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We are disappointed in the market’s reaction to Buffalo Wild Wings’ (BWLD) third-quarter results, released after the close October 28, if only because we have a very, very small “starter” position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We typically ease into newsletter positions over time, unless we’re making a high-conviction call, and while we know we may have disappointed some that took full positions on the news of the addition of B-Dubs, we were “hoping” for an opportunity like this, to accumulate more shares of the company at a lower price. It looks like that lower price will happen, but consistent with the Valuentum Buying Index methodology, we’ll now be waiting for the stock to turn upward and for momentum … Read more

As the World Turns

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Our growing concern over market participants’ lackadaisical approach to what will inevitably become a contractionary monetary cycle has been evident for months. The US market crash of August 24 has disrupted the comfort levels of many investors, however, but it has not derailed the confidence of long-term planners, nor has it interrupted the conviction of optimists that believe the sky is the eventual limit for equity prices in their lifetimes. We take a more measured and cautious view of risky assets at Valuentum, and we’ll never tell investors to ignore the information contained in market prices. The risk of a recession in the US beginning this year is remote, but concerns are mounting for 2016. US gross domestic product continues … Read more

New Adds: One Name at a Deep Discount and Another Long-time Favorite

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Shown above: The carnage in the S&P 500. One of the most important measures that we strive to portray is balance. In our recent writings, we’ve demonstrated a very bearish slant on recent developments, and we still hold those views, but our actions within the newsletter portfolios are also very important in understanding how we react to such views. As we’ve outlined many a time before, global economic developments and US equity markets are not always inextricably linked, meaning that there could be times–seemingly more often than not–when the economy is heading south and equity markets hold up fairly well or even advance, and vice versa. Part of the core Valuentum process, however, centers on finding undervalued stocks and letting … Read more

3 Reasons Why Buffalo Wild Wings Is a Long-Term Winner

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#1: Buffalo Wild Wings Has Captured the Hearts of Children “Plant the Brownie acorn and the Kodak oak will grow.” George Eastman knew all too well about winning the hearts of children. The inventor-entrepreneur popularized flexible film in the 1880s, and his first Kodak camera was available for purchase by the end of the decade. But the breakthrough was too expensive, and it wasn’t until the Kodak Brownie, released a dozen years later, that photography was democratized. The camera sold for just a $1 and was easy to use. But importantly, Eastman focused his marketing and advertising efforts on children. When these children grew up, the seeds had been planted, and Eastman had built an empire. The Kodak oak grew. … Read more

The Continued Rise of Pizza and How to Play It

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Image Source: Blaze The pizza industry is flat-out sizzling! Or is it stuffed? Call it how you want, but pizza is hot! Literally, and well, figuratively. There are some pretty interesting statistics about pizza. Here are a few from the latest Pizza Industry Analysis at Franchise Help: Americans eat on average 100 acres of pizza daily or 350 slices per second. In addition, 93 percent of Americans eat at least one pizza per month, easily making pizza the number one dinner choice in the United States. With such mass appeal, it is no surprise that this $40 billion industry (measured by sales per year) makes up approximately 17 percent of all restaurants in the nation…there are approximately 65,000 pizzerias in … Read more

10 Bucks per Hour; What It Really Means

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Source: US Department of Labor, Walmart Walmart (WMT) is quite savvy. The big box retailer announced February 19 it would raise the minimum wage for all of its US workers to $9 per hour in April of this year and at least $10 per hour by next February. The move comes amid ongoing public scrutiny of its labor practices, elevated worker turnover, and general malaise among the ranks on social media platforms. At face value, the news headlines show Walmart caving to public pressure, and a win for big labor, but in reality, the retailing giant is merely doing what good businesses do – pleasing customers (which are its workers, too) and widening its economic moat. Hiking wages accomplishes both. … Read more

Yum! Brands’ Fourth-Quarter Earnings Preview

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Yum! Brands reports after the bell today. Watch Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson on CNBCAsia at 5:40CT. If 16%+ comparable-store sales growth during any given period can ever be described as such, Chipotle (CMG) dropped the ball during its calendar fourth quarter. The fast-casual burrito maker’s shares are facing pressure as a result of management’s overly conservative comp guidance of low-to-mid-single digit growth for 2015, as if we haven’t seen this before. Chipotle sets the bar low and then hurdles over it like an Olympic high-jumper. McDonald’s (MCD), on the other hand, is in a world of hurt, and with CEO Don Thompson’s retirement, the brand has been shaken to the core as it struggles to connect with millennials. Investors in … Read more

New England Wins!

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Does that mean we’re doomed in 2015? Don’t be silly. The Super Bowl indicator, which says that if a team from the NFC wins we’re in for a good year, is akin to reading the stars. But the AFC’s Patriots won the big game – so does that mean 2015 will disappoint? Perhaps 2015 will…but certainly not because of the Patriots won the Super Bowl. A person doesn’t have to look much further than the NFC’s New York Giants winning the Super Bowl in 2008 to understand why such things just don’t matter. The dawn of the Financial Crisis that year sent stocks a-tumbling. It’s unfortunate that such things get so much attention because it makes it sound like the … Read more