BWLD

Yum! Brands’ KFC in a Lot of Trouble

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There was a time when Yum! Brands’ (YUM) KFC dominated the US chicken market, but those days are over.  Privately-held Chik-fil-A’s roots date back to the 1960s in Atlanta, but the company has gradually become the largest (yes, the largest) quick-service chicken restaurant chain in the US, based on domestic annual sales over $5 billion (with over 1,850 locations in 41 states and Washington D.C.). Chik-fil-A’s sales levels are better than Popeyes’ (PLKI) comparatively-modest ~$200 million in revenue and Yum! Brands’ ~$3 billion in revenue at its entire US division. Very few investors know about privately-held Chik-fil-A’s continued success in the states, and the firm’s growth is not slowing. From Chik-fil-A’s adorable cow campaign, ‘Eat Mor Chikin,’ where self-interested cows … Read more

Performance of the Valuentum Buying Index

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Note: A more recent analysis of the Valuentum Buying Index rating system can be accessed at the following link: /Value_and_Momentum_Within_Stocks_Too Two separate studies have reinforced the efficacy of the Valuentum Buying Index, both as a portfolio optimization tool and as an idea generator. If you cannot view the video, please consult the transcript that follows. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  The studies referred to in this video can be accessed as follows: Why Valuentum Buying Index Ratings Matter: /20141003_1 Valuentum’s Performance on Seeking Alpha: /20141009 Please be sure to read the studies closely in addition to watching the video or consulting the transcript below. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I’d like to talk … Read more

The Correction: Protection Makes Sense

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When our team thinks about members, the one thing we want for them is to make money from our service. This sometimes means that we’re a bit cautious at times. For example, taking profits on Ford (F), Precision Castparts (PCP), and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) a couple days ago was not an easy thing to do. They’ve been huge winners. From a fundamental standpoint, we still like the companies, but market conditions and valuations cannot be ignored. Just like the profit-taking, we also think it was prudent to add protection in the form of put option contracts to the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio in light of a number of factors. The put option contracts amount to ~1.5% … Read more

Question About the September Best Ideas Newsletter

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Q: I’m curious – how does BWLD go from a Valuentum 6 rating to a 3 with no earnings in the interim and price movement to the downside in the ensuing 30 day period? Was there a calculation error? Thank you for the question. The Valuentum Buying Index is not a step function tool (e.g. the score moves from 3 to 4 to 5). The Valuentum Buying Index considers a discounted cash flow process, a relative valuation process, and a technical/momentum assessment. It has components of both a value-based system and a momentum-based system. Any one of these parameters can influence a change in the rating, so there are a number of variables that can cause a multiple notch move … Read more

Performance Update: The Valuentum Buying Index

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Note: A more recent analysis of the Valuentum Buying Index rating system can be accessed at the following link: /Value_and_Momentum_Within_Stocks_Too A version of this article was published October 26, 2013. By Brian Nelson, CFA We periodically update the performance results of the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), the stock-selection methodology that drives idea-generation within the Best Ideas portfolio. The academic studies of the Valuentum Buying Index can be accessed here (white paper) and here (AAII). The latest iteration of the performance, dated September 3, 2014, continues to showcase the strong sorting mechanism embedded within the investing framework, particularly when the index is coupled with qualitative oversight and portfolio management skill. Sorting winners from losers is what the Valuentum Buying Index has been designed to … Read more

Buffalo Wild Wings’ Pizza Rev Is a Hidden Gem

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Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has been one of the best performing restaurants during the past few years. We credit the restaurant’s strong multi-year run to a solid concept, continued strong same-store sales expansion, and excellent cost containment (via serving size innovation). The restaurant’s second-quarter results, released Tuesday, were solid. Total revenue increased 20% during the quarter, while same-store sales increased 7.7% at company-owned restaurants and 6.5% at franchised restaurants. Net earnings increased nearly 44% to $23.7 million from $16.5 million, and earnings per diluted share increased at a similar pace, to $1.25. The company benefited from lower costs thanks in part to a decrease in the price-per-pound for traditional chicken wings. From the same period in 2013, the company had … Read more

Holy Guacamole! McDonald’s Wishing It Had Kept Chipotle

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Very few investors probably remember that Chipotle (CMG) used to be owned in part by McDonald’s (MCD). McDonald’s had originally taken a stake in Chipotle in February 1998, when Chipotle had but 14 restaurants in Denver. The maker of the Big Mac would go on to own 90% of the subsidiary and eventually spin it off in an initial public offering in January 2006. McDonald’s would receive ~$1.5 billion from the sale, but with Chipotle’s market capitalization now at over $20 billion, it’s clear the burger-and-fries behemoth exited way too early. The most recently-reported results by both restaurants tell the diverging story quite well. McDonald’s reported relatively disappointing second-quarter results Tuesday. The performance can best be described as flat. Global … Read more