Member Articles

Newsletter Alert: Title Withheld – Members Only

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We’re as surprised as you are by this alert, but we’re removing GE from both newsletter portfolios. After rolling our discounted cash flow model forward (2017 first forecast year) and in light of GE’s release of its 10-Q late April, which showed surprisingly poor cash flow from operations conversion (negative $1.6 billion in industrial cash flow from operations) and only modest capital spending reductions (two key components of the Dividend Cushion ratio), we no longer have the confidence in shares as we did before. But why the change and why now? New information in the 10-Q, and new forecasts in our newly rolled-forward discounted cash flow model. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA We had just finished saying how … Read more

eBay Up 50%+ Since Nelson’s Open Letter to Yahoo CEO

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In February 2016, President of Investment Research at Valuentum penned an open letter to Yahoo’s CEO Marissa Mayer. In it, he said a combination of Yahoo-eBay would be substantially value-creating for shareholders. eBay’s stock has advanced 50%+ since that letter. By Valuentum Analysts We don’t write letters to CEOs often, but when we do, we have good reason. In February 2016, Yahoo (YHOO) had been under major pressure to monetize its stake in Alibaba (BABA), and CEO Marissa Mayer had faced continuous and tremendous criticism during her tenure. Working under the assumption that Yahoo wanted to monetize its stake in Alibaba at that time and put cash to work, President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson wrote in an … Read more

Not Worried About Priceline, Boeing; Yes Worried About Fickle Retail

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Priceline and Boeing have been here before. Fickle retail continues to succumb to the Amazon effect. By Brian Nelson, CFA The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) closed just shy of the 21,000 mark on May 11, while the S&P 500 (SPY) ended the session at ~2,395. We continue to ride the wave in the equity markets higher, even as we exercise caution almost across the board. First-quarter earnings season has actually been quite good, however, with the “blended earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies north of 10% (it was 13.5% with more than 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting). FactSet noted in its May 5 report that this pace of growth is the highest since … Read more

Podcast: The Hazards of Mortgage REITs

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks mortgage REITs and the concept of spread risk that may lead to steep book value declines and weakened dividend health across the industry. ~5 mins. If you cannot view the video below, please view the transcript that follows or select the link here. Kris Rosemann: Hi, I am Kris Rosemann for Valuentum Securities. Today on our podcast President of Investment Research Brian Nelson is going walk us through some of our thoughts on mortgage REITs (REM). Brian could you explain to us why we at Valuentum don’t like mortgage REITs and maybe go through some of the risks individual investors should be concerned with that are not as prevalent as a normal operating … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Alphabet, Intel, MLPs and More

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Let’s keep the good times going, would you say? Brian Nelson, CFA The good news during this first-quarter earnings season hasn’t let up, and we must say we’re very happy to say so. Newsletter portfolio holdings, our favorite ideas at any time, continue to exceed expectations. The Valuentum Buying Index helps us identify new ideas to consider, while the Dividend Cushion ratio helps us avoid dividend cuts. The Economic Castle rating helps us identify the best economic value-creators across our coverage universe. All three of these metrics (and our opinions on many more, including fair values/ranges and the like) you can’t find anywhere else but at Valuentum. We don’t leave any stones unturned when it comes to investment analysis. In … Read more

United’s Passenger Debacle An Immaterial Investment Consideration

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Image Source: Business Insider  The major airlines in the US have done a fantastic job capitalizing on the ongoing upswing in air travel demand, but their economically-sensitive business models remain the most operationally-leveraged out of any industry group in our coverage. This should be investors’ biggest concern: A downturn in the global economy and competitive pricing pressures are far greater worries for investors than United’s recent passenger debacle. However, as with many news-oriented items (as opposed to materially-relevant, investment-related items), United’s misstep is making headlines in a big way. Though the footage in this article is appalling, investors in airline stocks have much more important things to worry about, in our view. By Brian Nelson, CFA The airline industry has … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 14

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending April 14. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Antero Midstream (AM): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Citi Trends (CTRN): now $0.08 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. Euronext NV (EUXTF): now EUR 1.42 per share annual dividend, was EUR 1.24. Foot Locker (FL): now $0.31 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.275. Genesis Energy (GEL): now $0.72 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.71. Gladstone Investment (GAIN): now $0.064 per share monthly dividend, … Read more

Trash As A Source of Cash and 2 New Additions to the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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Image Source: thetaxhaven We’re making a number of adjustments to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.  By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It’s time to take out the trash… that is, trash hauler Republic Services (RSG) from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (it’s not “trash” – it’s actually a fantastic company and has been a great stock, but boy is it pricey now). We’re also adding ~1.5% positions in two new ideas, Dollar General (DG) and Verint Systems (VRNT), in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as both have attractive valuations, in our view. Dollar General’s 27 consecutive years of same-store-sales growth are impressive, and Verint is now at the low end of its short-term uptrend, offering an interesting entry point … Read more