Member Articles

Latest Write-ups, Our ALA Excursion and Apple

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— Latest Write-ups, Our ALA Excursion and Apple  —  Find links to our latest research in this note. Value Trap continues to gain traction in the public domain. We’ll talk Apple and let you know what we’re watching after the close January 29. — Hi everyone, — We’re back from a three-day retreat at the American Library Association (ALA) Midwinter conference, and I must say I was mighty impressed with the response we received from sharing Value Trap. We handed out copies to librarians around the country, from professional to academic to public and beyond. I fully expect that Value Trap will be in most databases around the country, and I think it makes for nice exposure for advisors and industry participants that submitted a … Read more

Starbucks Reports Earnings, Coronavirus to Hurt China Sales

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Image Shown: How Starbucks Corporation views its competitive strengths. Image Source: Starbucks – December 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On January 28, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) reported first-quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (period ended December 29, 2019) that modestly beat consensus expectations on the EPS front and matched consensus expectations for its revenues. Shares were broadly flat after-hours and traded down on the January 29 session. Overview Same-store sales in the US were up 6% while rising competitive pressures in China limited same-store sales growth to just 3% year-over-year. Luckin Coffee (LK) has been aggressively growing its store count in China, growing from ~625 stores in mid-2018 to 3,680 stores as of its third quarter earnings report for fiscal … Read more

The Great Guyanese Oil Boom

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Image Shown: A drill ship floating in open waters. Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan We’re going to get into the potential opportunity for energy producers in Guyana, but first, one thing that often gets lost in the noise surrounding press releases and presentations announcing new upstream projects coming online is that Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) and its peers are contending with serious base decline rates. Decline rates are around 3-5% per year for conventional fields depending on the level of investment made in base maintenance (along with recovery rates and the quality of the rock), which includes such things as gas/water injection projects (this entails drilling injection wells to maintain reservoir pressure and often involves … Read more

Why *NOW* Do You Care About Boeing’s Stock?

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Image Source: Robert Sullivan In no, way shape or form should you *now* be interested in Boeing’s stock. Let’s explain. By Brian Nelson, CFA I used to cover Boeing (BA) full-time when I worked as a senior equity analyst at Morningstar many moons ago. I remember pounding the table on the name to many a buyside shop in Chicago when it must have been trading well under $100 at the time (now more than 10 years ago). I remember posting an old video of me with Pat Dorsey, who now runs his own shop in Chicago, Dorsey Asset Management. That video used to be here, but as in what usually happens on the Internet, the darn thing doesn’t exist anymore. … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Morgan Stanley Expecting Substantial Improvements

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Morgan Stanley is guiding return on tangible equity to go from 12.9% this year to 13-15% in two years and to 15-17% in the longer term. Management was quite clear that they are using the assumption that the economy and markets move ahead at normal levels, meaning no severe recessions or booms. That said, if the company hits these goals, it will drive fundamentals ahead at a steady clip, requiring a reset higher in its valuation. By Matthew Warren Morgan Stanley (MS) put up solid fourth-quarter results, released January 16, beating the consensus of analyst earnings-per-share forecasts by a decent margin. Net revenues advanced 8% and net income applicable to Morgan Stanley common shareholders was up a modest 1%. Adjusted … Read more

You Saw It Coming: 85% of Quant Funds Underperform

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You Saw It Coming: 85% of Quant Funds Underperform  —  Financial advisors that shared the book Value Trap with your clients, if you think it makes sense, please be sure to let them know how hard you are working for them in staying up to date with new developments, especially the vast underperformance of quant mutual funds. Keep building trust.— By Brian Nelson, CFA — If I could have one wish come true, it’s for our members to know how much we put their interests first in getting them the right information with sound judgment. This sometimes takes us off in tangents, but where the individual investor and financial advisor are in need or not getting a fair shake, you’re going to find us … Read more

PPG Industries’ Latest Earnings Report Indicates Softer Industrial Activity Ahead

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Image Shown: Capitalizing on the various lucrative opportunities the aerospace industry offers PPG Industries Inc underpins its long-term free cash flow trajectory. Image Source: PPG Industries – December 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On January 16, maker of painting, coating, and specialty materials PPG Industries Inc (PPG) posted fourth quarter earnings for 2019 that missed consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-lines. Shares sold off sharply initially before recovering modestly throughout the trading session January 16. Let’s walk through PPG Industries’ quarterly performance to get a feel for how broader industrial activity is trending and why economic softness may be looming. As of this writing, PPG Industries is trading in the upper bound of our fair value estimate … Read more

Two Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Holdings Get Ready to Report Earnings Later This Month

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Two holdings in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft Corporation, are getting ready to report earnings later this month. By Callum Turcan Johnson & Johnson Shares of Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) have experienced a sharp recovery since October 2019 and are trending up towards our fair value estimate of $151 per share. If Johnson & Johnson continues to perform well going forward, keeping in mind management raised the firm’s full-year guidance for fiscal 2019 several times (more on that here), shares of JNJ could test the upper bounds of our fair value estimate range which sits at $181 per share. Shares of JNJ yield ~2.6% as of … Read more

Goldman Hit By Charge Related to 1MDB

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Aside from dominating the global revenue pools for investment banking and trading, Goldman is doing other things right. The firm has rapidly gathered deposits in the US and UK over the past year, bringing in a lower cost of funds to help facilitate its balance sheet. Goldman has also built up Marcus, Apple Card, and the bank is in the process of growing its asset management business to better serve institutional clients. By Matthew Warren Goldman Sachs (GS) posted mixed fourth-quarter results, released January 15, beating consensus revenues but missing on the bottom line by a substantial amount as a result of a $1.24 billion charge related to the ongoing 1MDB (1Malaysia Development Berhad) scandal potential upcoming resolution. 1MDB is … Read more