Brian Nelson

December Retail Sales Roundup

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Let’s take a look at retailers that still report monthly results. Nordstrom Nordstrom’s (click ticker for report: ) December was strong as usual, with same-store sales jumping 8.6% and total sales increasing 9.4%. We saw some weakness from the full-line Nordstrom store in November, but that trend was reversed by an 8.2% same-store sales gain in December. Nordstrom Rack continued to post fantastic results, with an 8.1% jump in same-store sales for December. All retailers benefitted from a more favorable calendar compared to 2011, but we think Nordstrom’s execution was strong regardless. Nordstrom continues to be among our favorite multi-line retailers, but we think its shares are fairly valued at current levels. Unlike other retailers, we aren’t worried about gross … Read more

Why the Fiscal Cliff Deal Helps Dividend Growth Investors

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After Congress finally approved a deal to thwart the fiscal cliff Tuesday night, investors throughout the US finally have a clear picture on the tax treatment of investments going forward. Assuming no deal was reached, the US income tax code would have reverted to pre-Bush tax cut era rates, which included higher marginal rates at all income levels, higher capital gains taxes, and dividends being treated as ordinary income. Assuming several tried-and-true dividend aristocrats are valued by many on a yield basis, equity prices for high-yielding and overvalued stocks could have suffered a substantial price decline as the after-tax yield would have been meaningfully reduced. We felt the repercussions of uncertainty in the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter. Shares … Read more

No Coal? No Problem for the Rails

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In the third quarter of 2012, we highlighted weak rail traffic as being driven by weaker coal shipments, and the trend continued throughout the fourth quarter. According to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), coal shipments for the week ending on December 22 fell 11.1% year-over-year. Given the wealth of railroads that were heavily leveraged to coal, including Norfolk Southern (click ticker for report: ), CSX (click ticker for report: ), and Union Pacific (click ticker for report: ), it would be natural to assume the entire segment is ripe for decline. Yet, that doesn’t appear to be the case. The AAR also reported that total rail traffic for that same week increased 0.9% compared to the previous year and … Read more

Fiscal Cliff Averted; Aerospace Rallying

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After a volatile December, two of our favorite aerospace names, Astronics (click ticker for report: ) and EDAC Technologies (click ticker for report: ), are rallying significantly after a deal was finally reached to avert the fiscal cliff. Precision Castparts (click ticker for report: ), which had steadily moved higher during the fiscal-cliff ordeal thanks to optimism surrounding its planned acquisition of Titanium Metals (TIE), is also seeing strength today. We assumed both profit taking and overblown fears of defense cuts were the culprit behind the increased volatility, and it seems as though that could be the case. We continue to see substantial upside at these firms thanks to the massive, multi-year commercial aerospace backlogs of the large airframe makers. Our Best Ideas portfolio … Read more

Windows 8 Adoption is Looking Lackluster

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According to a report from Net Applications, Microsoft’s (click ticker for report: ) Windows 8 adoption is not off to a great start. As of December 22, Windows 8 accounted for approximately 1.6% of total computer usage compared to 2.2% Vista obtained at a similar time after launch and well behind Windows 7’s 5%+ usage rate. Is it time to call Windows 8 a bust? We aren’t going that far, but unless we see a substantial increase in usage in the first quarter of calendar 2013, it looks like Windows 8 will not be an immediate success. Although the operating system represents Microsoft’s first foray into desktop/tablet integration, consumers aren’t nearly as excited as the company had predicted. Most enterprises have … Read more

The Valuentum Dividend100 Publication; A Must-Have For Any Income Investor

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Dividend investors literally have thousands of income stocks to choose from. So what are they to do, and where can they go for the most trusted forward-looking opinions on dividend growth and safety? That’s the question we seek to answer with our ValuentumDividend100 publication. In this document, we showcase the top 100 high-quality, dividend growth gems within our coverage universe. Whether you’re looking to build a portfolio consisting of high-yielding, dividend-growers or simply seeking to augment it with a few income gems, the Valuentum Dividend100 is an essential resource for any income investor. We outline some of the key components of our Dividend100 publication below, and explain how you can get the most from each of one Sign Up for … Read more

The Valuentum Ideas100; A Compilation of the Highest-Quality Firms on the Market Today!

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Financial advisors and investors literally have thousands of stocks—large and small, domestic and foreign–to choose from. So what are they to do, and where can they go to find the most trusted opinions on the highest-quality companies on the market today?   That’s the question we seek to answer with our Valuentum Ideas100 publication. In this document, we showcase the highest-quality firms from each sector (100 in total) on the basis of our assessment of their competitive advantages (ROIC less WACC spread) and risk profiles (our ValueRisk™ rating). We believe the strength and sustainability of a firm’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is the best quantitative way to assess a company’s competitive advantages, and we believe a deep dive into … Read more

Dividend Growth Portfolio Modeling Made Easy!

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Empowering Dividend Growth Investors Do you or your clients have a dividend growth portfolio? If so, this model is indispensable. It’s the best tool out there to account for the quarterly reinvestment of growing dividends after adjusting for future equity price growth in a portfolio setting. This model will allow you to better plan for your and your clients’ retirement needs and has unmatched functionality. Plus, this tool has easy-to-follow instructions and is customized to provide deliverable print outs for you or your clients. Your firm’s logo can be added, too. To purchase Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Retirement Portfolio Model (Calculator), please click here! The model, built by Brian Nelson, CFA, sets out to do much more than what other simple dividend … Read more