Brian Nelson

No Coal? No Problem for the Rails

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In the third quarter of 2012, we highlighted weak rail traffic as being driven by weaker coal shipments, and the trend continued throughout the fourth quarter. According to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), coal shipments for the week ending on December 22 fell 11.1% year-over-year. Given the wealth of railroads that were heavily leveraged to coal, including Norfolk Southern (click ticker for report: ), CSX (click ticker for report: ), and Union Pacific (click ticker for report: ), it would be natural to assume the entire segment is ripe for decline. Yet, that doesn’t appear to be the case. The AAR also reported that total rail traffic for that same week increased 0.9% compared to the previous year and … Read more

Fiscal Cliff Averted; Aerospace Rallying

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After a volatile December, two of our favorite aerospace names, Astronics (click ticker for report: ) and EDAC Technologies (click ticker for report: ), are rallying significantly after a deal was finally reached to avert the fiscal cliff. Precision Castparts (click ticker for report: ), which had steadily moved higher during the fiscal-cliff ordeal thanks to optimism surrounding its planned acquisition of Titanium Metals (TIE), is also seeing strength today. We assumed both profit taking and overblown fears of defense cuts were the culprit behind the increased volatility, and it seems as though that could be the case. We continue to see substantial upside at these firms thanks to the massive, multi-year commercial aerospace backlogs of the large airframe makers. Our Best Ideas portfolio … Read more

Windows 8 Adoption is Looking Lackluster

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According to a report from Net Applications, Microsoft’s (click ticker for report: ) Windows 8 adoption is not off to a great start. As of December 22, Windows 8 accounted for approximately 1.6% of total computer usage compared to 2.2% Vista obtained at a similar time after launch and well behind Windows 7’s 5%+ usage rate. Is it time to call Windows 8 a bust? We aren’t going that far, but unless we see a substantial increase in usage in the first quarter of calendar 2013, it looks like Windows 8 will not be an immediate success. Although the operating system represents Microsoft’s first foray into desktop/tablet integration, consumers aren’t nearly as excited as the company had predicted. Most enterprises have … Read more

The Valuentum Dividend100 Publication; A Must-Have For Any Income Investor

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Dividend investors literally have thousands of income stocks to choose from. So what are they to do, and where can they go for the most trusted forward-looking opinions on dividend growth and safety? That’s the question we seek to answer with our ValuentumDividend100 publication. In this document, we showcase the top 100 high-quality, dividend growth gems within our coverage universe. Whether you’re looking to build a portfolio consisting of high-yielding, dividend-growers or simply seeking to augment it with a few income gems, the Valuentum Dividend100 is an essential resource for any income investor. We outline some of the key components of our Dividend100 publication below, and explain how you can get the most from each of one Sign Up for … Read more

The Valuentum Ideas100; A Compilation of the Highest-Quality Firms on the Market Today!

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Financial advisors and investors literally have thousands of stocks—large and small, domestic and foreign–to choose from. So what are they to do, and where can they go to find the most trusted opinions on the highest-quality companies on the market today?   That’s the question we seek to answer with our Valuentum Ideas100 publication. In this document, we showcase the highest-quality firms from each sector (100 in total) on the basis of our assessment of their competitive advantages (ROIC less WACC spread) and risk profiles (our ValueRisk™ rating). We believe the strength and sustainability of a firm’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is the best quantitative way to assess a company’s competitive advantages, and we believe a deep dive into … Read more

Dividend Growth Portfolio Modeling Made Easy!

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Empowering Dividend Growth Investors Do you or your clients have a dividend growth portfolio? If so, this model is indispensable. It’s the best tool out there to account for the quarterly reinvestment of growing dividends after adjusting for future equity price growth in a portfolio setting. This model will allow you to better plan for your and your clients’ retirement needs and has unmatched functionality. Plus, this tool has easy-to-follow instructions and is customized to provide deliverable print outs for you or your clients. Your firm’s logo can be added, too. To purchase Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Retirement Portfolio Model (Calculator), please click here! The model, built by Brian Nelson, CFA, sets out to do much more than what other simple dividend … Read more

Red Hat Continues to Generate Strong Cash Flow

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Open-source software provider Red Hat (click ticker for report: ) reported solid third-quarter results last week. The firm that is synonymous with Linux posted revenue growth of 18% (21% excluding currency) year-over-year to $344 million, a touch better than consensus estimates. Non-GAAP earnings per share ticked up a penny to $0.29, also in-line with consensus expectations. We plan to update our report soon. On the revenue side, subscription sales increased 19% year-over-year to $294 million, while training and services revenue increased 14% to $49 million. We were even more impressed by the company’s growth in deferred revenue, which totaled $988 million—21% higher than at the same time a year ago. The firm has done an excellent job of retaining its … Read more

Apple’s Market Share Is Great; Its Profits and Cash Flow Are Even Better

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Adding to the wall of worries that has crushed the share price of Apple (click ticker for report: ) during the past several months are fears that the firm doesn’t have incredible market share outside of the US. Recent estimates peg Apple’s US market share at 53.3%, up tremendously from its 35.8% market share registered a year ago. Such a figure reveals that more than half of all smartphone sales are coming from Apple, even though its phones tend to cost more than those of its competitors—even for an out-of-date model like the 4S. No one seems to be denying the firm’s top-notch execution and performance in the US. Android (click ticker for report: ), on the other hand, has … Read more