WMT

Uncertainty in Retail Remains

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Image Source: Mike Mozart By Kris Rosemann Just one day after shares of Walmart (WMT) fell on sentiment from the poor quarterly report from rival Target (TGT), “Target and Non-GAAP Earnings (May 2016),” Walmart reported strong first quarter earnings and shares leapt nearly 10% in the May 19 trading session. Other retailers, however, haven’t been as lucky, experiencing material share price declines as of late due to ongoing weakness across many verticals of the retail space. Some noteworthy retailers that have been punished as a result of poor first quarter performance include Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), and Nordstrom (JWN), among others, including the aforementioned Target. The material weakness across retail comes despite US retail and food service sales beating expectations … Read more

Part III: Nelson’s Evaluation of Berkshire’s 2015 Annual Report

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<< Go back to Part I << Go back to Part II By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s always a wonder to open up on the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) annual report for a large variety of different reasons, but every time I do I can’t help but ponder yesteryear through the table on page 2, “Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500.” I think I have a unique knack for imagining what might have been if today’s standards would have been applied to Berkshire in the 1970s, perhaps in some ways how many baseball fans may think about whether the legends of the past would have put up the type of numbers that they did if presented with today’s dynamics. For … Read more

Target and Non-GAAP Earnings

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Another day of earnings — another bad day for retail. May 18 brought a disappointing first-quarter report from retail bellwether Target (TGT) that sent the prices of it and most of its big box brethren including WalMart (WMT), Best Buy (BBY), and hhgregg (HGG) lower on the session, the latter two lower due to weakness in Target’s electronics vertical during the period. We’re reiterating our $71 per share fair value estimate of Target at the time of this writing. Except perhaps home improvement retailers Lowe’s (LOW) and Home Depot (HD), which continue to post desirable comparable store sales increases (+7.3% and +6.5% in the first quarter, respectively), and arguably the auto retailers, including AutoZone (AZO) and … Read more

Part I: Nelson’s Evaluation of Berkshire’s 2015 Annual Report

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Image Source: Fortune Live Media By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s always fun to crack open the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) annual report, this year’s 2015. It reminds me of how much times have changed. For one, if Warren Buffett had been starting out in the investment business today, he simply wouldn’t have had a chance. The front page of this year’s Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter shows that he trailed the market 33% of the time in the first 6 years in business (1965-1970), and the company lost half of its market value in 1974. Very few fund managers today, if any at all, that lose half of their market value in one year, trailing the market by 22 percentage points … Read more

Target’s E-Commerce Growth the Real Story

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Image: Target’s mascot Bullseye sporting new shades at a local job fair. We have a difficult time dismissing Target’s (TGT) short-sightedness in abandoning its efforts in Canada, as in time, its ability to continue to drive traffic and store count in the US higher will plateau. In no way will this occur anytime soon, or within the next few years or so, but it will, and Target will have wished it wouldn’t have given up in Canada. But that’s not the story today Skeptics are looking wrong in a big way, as Target showcased a pace of e-commerce expansion better than that of Wal-Mart (WMT) and even Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY) in its most recently-reported fourth quarter. Digital sales … Read more

Dividend Growth ‘Bubble’ To Continue But For How Long?

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You’ve heard about low interest rates. You may have even heard about a ZIRP, zero interest-rate policy, as had been the case in the US for years, but have you heard of NIRP, negative interest-rate policy? Well, that’s the latest with respect to Japan (EWJ), which is home to the third-largest national economy in the world after the US and China. On January 29, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced a negative benchmark interest rate of -0.1%, meaning that instead of paying interest on deposits, it will charge commercial banks to hold their money. This may make Japanese exports cheaper to stimulate growth, but my goodness, talk about a move to push “parked” assets out of the country. The US … Read more

Creed, Apple, and the Fitbit

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Hanging out in malls on Thanksgiving isn’t really our thing at Valuentum, but what we’re hearing thus far is that “Thanksgiving shopping was a bust.” It even felt as though tourism was down a bit as traditional near-impassable auto traffic was surprisingly absent in at least one key family destination, the gateway to the Smokies in Gatlinburg, Tennessee, and maybe keeping travelers from commuting through the city of Chicago was the potential for riots following the release of the dash cam video allegedly showing a police officer shooting a youth 16 times in November of last year. My trip from northern Illinois to Gatlinburg, Tennessee, and back was rather uneventful, not that I am complaining about … Read more

Same Stories Prevail at Walmart and Target

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When consumers think of retail, Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are probably two of the biggest companies that come to mind. After all, the two big box retail giants have taken the US by storm throughout much of the 1990s and 2000s. But the shift to e-commerce with the proliferation of Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY) coupled with broad-based consumer backlash with respect to worker wages and credit card breaches, respectively, have created a whirlwind of negative public perception at the two giants as of late. Will worker unrest and Target’s failed attempt to expand beyond the borders of the US mark the generational stock price peaks at the two giants, respectively? Are both past their prime? The likelihood of … Read more

Alphabet (Google) and eBay Power Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio!

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It’s no secret that the Internet and the companies that operate within the Internet space are always changing. There must be continuous innovation and re-discovery to keep up with the competition to amaze society with the next great development. Consumers have become accustomed to many of the Internet giants doing just that, pushing the envelope and enriching their lives with a better, faster, or more convenient way of content consumption. One of the many struggles that Internet-based entities have is not only how to create these new products, devices, or programs, but also how to monetize such breakthrough endeavors successfully. In a fast-changing environment, it is never easy to deliver sustainable, profitable and innovative growth. Let’s take a look at … Read more

Bellwether Snapshot: Walmart, Boeing, CSX

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Alcoa (AA) kicked off third-quarter earnings season with a wimper, which had been preceded by Yum! Brands’ (YUM) doozy of a showing. Incremental news impacting the expected performance of Walmart (WMT), Boeing (BA), and CSX (CSX) hasn’t been great either. Investors continue to write off weakness as “normal,” even “macroeconomic” as if it doesn’t matter, pointing to the transient nature of a struggling global economy suffering from a slowdown in the pace of growth in China and weakness in export-dependent countries, not the least of which is Brazil, as somehow a “good thing,” but it may not matter. The trajectory of expectations of future free cash flow generation is being impacted, and so are fair value estimates as a result, … Read more