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High Yield Dividend Income Investing Is Not as Easy as Chasing the Highest Yield

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Dear members: — The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (1) and Dividend Growth … Read more

Be Careful With Celebrity Endorsement of Investment Products

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Dear members: — Have you ever wondered why so many trust the TV for financial advice or stock tips? — You guessed it: It comes back to “brain science” or the concept of familiarity. When we see a celebrity or our favorite stock guru on the television, it arouses our emotions and connects us with the idea, making the experience more memorable. The brain tends to treat our favorite newscaster or celebrity as a trusted, familiar friend, and therefore we translate those feelings into expertise and a “valid” endorsement. — As humans, we can sometimes be misled. Recently, Kim Kardashian had to pay $1.26 million to settle an SEC charge that she promoted a cryptocurrency while failing to disclose she … Read more

Energy Transfer’s Dividend Cut Not Enough, Needs to Slash It More

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  We expect another distribution cut from Energy Transfer in the not-too-distant future. Its traditional free cash flow generation is still too meager to cover its now-reduced distribution level, and the energy markets are simply not cooperating. The energy sector has been among the worst-performing equity sectors for some time now, and investor appetite for new equity and debt issuance is waning as return expectations are ratcheted down in a troubled energy resource environment. We expect more pain to come for Energy Transfer’s stock. Our fair value estimate stands at $4 per share. By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 26, Energy Transfer (ET) put an axe to its distribution, cutting the payout in half to $0.1525/unit on a quarterly basis, … Read more

5 Years Later – #ThrowbackThursday on MLPs

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Image: Since Valuentum warned against the significant risks of the MLP business model June 11, 2015, on a price basis, the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) has fallen by more than 65%, while the S&P 500 has surged nearly 50%. There have been dozens and dozens of explicit (or phantom) MLP distribution cuts since we released our thesis 5 years ago to this day, and many MLPs have subsequently simplified their business models, rolling up into C-corps, as we predicted. By Brian Nelson, CFA 5 years ago, on June 11, 2015, Valuentum released its bearish case on Kinder Morgan (KMI) and the MLPs, a view that was highlighted on Barron’s.com and debated for months thereafter on various social media and website … Read more

Chesapeake Energy’s Pain Indicates Nothing “Safe” About Energy MLP Distributions

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Summary There is nothing “safe” in the stock market, and given the track record of the distributions of pipeline MLPs, there is nothing “safe” about pipeline MLP distributions. The MLP business model continues to be phased out, a trend that we anticipated when we made our bearish call on the group in June 2015. Chesapeake Energy’s pain is a yet another reminder of the pipeline MLP group’s exposure to energy resource pricing through the health (or rather ill-health) of its customer base. We continue to encourage pipeline operators to disclose free cash flow (cash flow from operations less all gross capital spending) prominently in press releases, alongside other industry-specific metrics. Investors of Chesapeake could get completely wiped out in a … Read more

Tallgrass Energy’s Growth Runway Shorter Than Expected

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Image Source: Tallgrass Energy LP – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Valuentum’s High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio parted ways with Tallgrass Energy LP (TGE) on August 1, as we wanted to reduce our exposure to the midstream space. We don’t like TGE as much as we once did and think it’s best to move on to better opportunities. Please note Blackstone Group Inc (BX), through affiliates of Blackstone Infrastructure Partners, closed its purchase of Tallgrass’ general partner in March 2019 which included those parties acquiring a 44% economic interest in Tallgrass. In 2018, Tallgrass reorganized as a C-Corp which we were very supportive of. Additionally, the midstream company has been very free cash flow positive historically (when defined as net … Read more

S&P Global: “Enterprise’s shift on cash flow reflects ‘metamorphosis’ of US pipeline firms”

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S&P Global: “While several major U.S. energy pipeline companies spent 2018 shedding cash-leaking habits and forging a more conventional financial structure as stocks languished, adopting reporting practices that are more accessible to the investing public could be a gradual process for the industry, if it takes flight at all.” S&P Global: “Enterprise’s shift on cash flow reflects ‘metamorphosis’ of US pipeline firms” Click here to read the article. Tickerized for holdings in the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP). Pipelines – Oil & Gas: BPL, DCP, ENB, EPD, ET, GMLP, HEP, KMI, MMP, NS, PAA, WES —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not … Read more

Hi-Crush and EnLink Join Growing List of MLP Simplifications

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Image Source: EnLink transaction presentation A number of master limited partnerships continue to transition to more simplified structures as they attempt to become increasingly nimble organizations. By Kris Rosemann The ongoing trend of master limited partnership simplification transactions continued October 22 as proppant and logistics solutions provider Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) acquired its general partner and slash its quarterly distribution to $0.225 per unit from $0.75 per unit. The now C-Corp used 11 million newly issued units to acquire Hi-Crush Proppants LLC for a total consideration of $96.25 million and eliminated its incentive distribution rights in doing so. Rationale cited for making the change is very similar to other similar transactions, including a lower cost of capital, wider appeal to a range … Read more

Objectivity in Analysis and the MLP Enigma

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about how financial statement analysis keeps analysts objective. He also goes into how the distribution yields of MLPs may not reflect underlying business dynamics. Nelson also explains an inconsistency in the use of financing that supports the idea that MLPs are using external capital market issuances to fund distributions. Running time: ~15 minutes.

Video: What Cash Flow Are You Talking About?

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson reviews important topics from the first six episodes of “Off the Cuff,” and goes into great detail about all the intricacies of “cash flow” from traditional free cash flow to enterprise free cash flow valuation. You know you want to watch. Running Time: ~14 minutes To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  Pipelines – Oil & Gas: BPL, BWP, DPM, ENB, EPD, ETP, EVEP, HEP, KMI, MMP, NS, OKS, PAA, SE, SEP, WES