ASML Launches Big Buyback; Lithography Systems Well Positioned for Demand Growth

Image: ASML has been one of the most successful semiconductor companies thanks in part to the firm’s advanced lithography systems that continue to meet customer demands for size and cost efficiencies. Image Source: ASML By Brian Nelson, CFA ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is one of the most prolific innovators in the semiconductor industry. The firm provides chipmakers with hardware, software and services to make patterns on silicon with lithography, a vital system in the chip-manufacturing process that increases chip value while lowering costs. The resolution of ASML’s lithography systems contributes to the ever-shrinking nature of transistors and microchips needed for ongoing industry innovation. Smaller and smaller chips save on energy, cost and time, and the wavelength of the light used … Read more

Taiwan Semiconductor’s Operations Remain Solid But Uncertainty Has Punished the Stock

Image: Taiwan Semiconductor’s shares have faced considerable pressure during 2022, despite strong operational performance. By Brian Nelson, CFA Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSM) shares have been cut in half this year as weakness across the tech space, uncertainty regarding new export restrictions, geopolitical tensions concerning China-Taiwan relations given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and general market malaise, particularly across the chip sector, have weighed on the company. Our fair value estimate stands at $66, about in-line with where they are trading at the time of this writing. One really wouldn’t think TSM’s shares would be down so much during 2022 given the company’s recent fundamental performance, however. When it reported third-quarter results October 13, revenue advanced 35.9%, while third-quarter earnings per … Read more

ALERT: Replacing Qualcomm with McDonald’s in Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio

Image: The semiconductor space is experiencing a number of headwinds, and while we still like Qualcomm’s long-term prospects, we’re replacing it with McDonald’s in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Qualcomm By Brian Nelson, CFA The technology industry has been wrecked during 2022, and the semiconductor space has been no exception. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down ~41% so far this year, as many of its top holdings, including wireless technology giant Qualcomm (QCOM) languish. As we walk through our views in this work, please note that Qualcomm’s fiscal third-quarter 2022 is calendar second quarter and its fiscal fourth-quarter 2022 is calendar third quarter. We recently highlighted our expectations for near-term weakness across the semiconductor space in … Read more

Chip Stocks — Geopolitical Uncertainty Heightens in China; ASML, QCOM Still Strong Long-Term Considerations, But Expect Near-Term Fundamental Weakness

Image Source: The U.S. Department of Commerce By The Valuentum Team The global economic environment continues to reel from heightened inflation, which is pressuring consumer discretionary spending, but geopolitical uncertainty remains at a fever pitch. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unsettled investors, but the back-and-forth between the U.S. and China has chipmakers in the crosshairs. On October 7, 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the following report aimed to restrict China’s ability to attain advanced computer chip technology: The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) is implementing a series of targeted updates to its export controls as part of BIS’s ongoing efforts to protect U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. These updates will restrict the … Read more

Microsoft Hinted at Trouble in Calendar Q2 But AMD’s Massive $1 Billion Quarterly Q3 Revenue Miss Spells Big Problems for PC Market; Search and News Advertising Revenue Also Likely Weakening Substantially

  Image Source: Fritzchens Fritz By Brian Nelson, CFA Things aren’t going well across the technology (XLK) landscape these days. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) said in mid-July Windows OEM revenue faced pressure in its quarter ended June 30, its fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, and noted that the “PC market…deteriorated in June (slide 15).” On its fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 conference call, the software and gaming giant said that its outlook “has the trends (it) saw in June continu(ing) through Q1 (the quarter ending in September 2022). Continued weakness in the PC market demand and advertising spend (is expected to) impact Windows OEM, Surface, LinkedIn and search and news advertising revenue.” We took note of this weakness at the time, but it … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Growing at a Robust Clip

Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Qualcomm Inc put up strong performance last fiscal quarter. Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Press Release By Callum Turcan Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) recently reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended June 26, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company provided guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter that was a tad lighter than what Wall Street was looking for, though its near term forecasts still call for substantial revenue and earnings growth on a year-over-year basis. We like Qualcomm as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio given its stellar free cash flow generating abilities, healthy balance sheet, pricing power, bright growth outlook, … Read more

ASML Holding Retains Dominant Position in High-End Semiconductor Equipment Space

Image Shown: ASML Holding NV effectively has a monopoly on the high-end space of the semiconductor equipment industry as the Dutch company sells the only lithography systems that can produce the most advanced cutting edge “chips.” We are huge fans of the company’s business model. Image Source: ASML Holding NV – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Based in the Netherlands, ASML Holding NV (ASML) produces lithography systems that can produce all types of semiconductor components and effectively has a monopoly at the high-end part of this industry given its immense technological lead over its peers. The secular tailwinds driving up demand for “chips” across the globe such as the growing computing power needs of … Read more

Taiwan Semi Firing on All Cylinders

Image Source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Semiconductor components, or “chips,” are the bedrock of the digital economy. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) operates numerous semiconductor fabrication sites all of the world, with its major manufacturing hub located in Taiwan, that produce chips utilized in all sorts of applications. Furthermore, Taiwan Semi is one of only a handful of companies capable of producing high-end chips at scale. Taiwan Semi’s business model revolves around producing chips for third-parties as the firm does not design semiconductor components itself, and the company is the largest semiconductor foundry in the world (foundries are chip fabrication sites specifically built to meet third-party needs). We are … Read more

Broadcom Buying VMware as “Empire Building” Streak Continues

Image Shown: Broadcom Inc is acquiring VMware Inc and the deal will significantly increase its enterprise software business. Image Source: Broadcom Inc and VMware Inc – May 2022 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Continuing with its acquisitive streak, the semiconductor and enterprise software giant Broadcom Inc (AVGO) announced on May 26 that it would acquire hybrid cloud services provider VMware Inc (VMW) through a cash-and-stock deal that values VMware at ~$61 billion. Additionally, Broadcom will assume ~$8 billion in net debt from VMware. This follows in the footsteps of Broadcom’s $18.9 billion deal to acquire CA Technologies in 2018 and its $10.7 billion deal to acquire the enterprise security business of then-Symantec, now NortonLifeLock Inc (NLOK), in 2019. Under the … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Growing Robustly

Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Qualcomm Inc posted a solid earnings update and provided promising near term guidance on February 2. Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On February 2, dividend growth idea Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended December 26, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The semiconductor company issued guidance for the current fiscal quarter that calls for double-digit revenue and earnings growth versus fiscal year-ago levels, though shares of QCOM still dipped modestly in after-hours trading that day. We continue to like Qualcomm as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the firm remains a free … Read more