JPM

Fiscal Cliff Averted; Aerospace Rallying

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After a volatile December, two of our favorite aerospace names, Astronics (click ticker for report: ) and EDAC Technologies (click ticker for report: ), are rallying significantly after a deal was finally reached to avert the fiscal cliff. Precision Castparts (click ticker for report: ), which had steadily moved higher during the fiscal-cliff ordeal thanks to optimism surrounding its planned acquisition of Titanium Metals (TIE), is also seeing strength today. We assumed both profit taking and overblown fears of defense cuts were the culprit behind the increased volatility, and it seems as though that could be the case. We continue to see substantial upside at these firms thanks to the massive, multi-year commercial aerospace backlogs of the large airframe makers. Our Best Ideas portfolio … Read more

Dividend Growth Portfolio Modeling Made Easy!

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Empowering Dividend Growth Investors Do you or your clients have a dividend growth portfolio? If so, this model is indispensable. It’s the best tool out there to account for the quarterly reinvestment of growing dividends after adjusting for future equity price growth in a portfolio setting. This model will allow you to better plan for your and your clients’ retirement needs and has unmatched functionality. Plus, this tool has easy-to-follow instructions and is customized to provide deliverable print outs for you or your clients. Your firm’s logo can be added, too. To purchase Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Retirement Portfolio Model (Calculator), please click here! The model, built by Brian Nelson, CFA, sets out to do much more than what other simple dividend … Read more

You Are Ahead of the News As a Valuentum Member

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Remember When We Said Economic Prognosticators Were Off Their Rockers? From the September 2012 edition of our Best Ideas Newsletter (see page 2), released September 15, 2012: “Could you imagine if you had listened to bond-king Bill Gross (please note he is not the equity king), Marc Faber (author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report) or the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which called for a recession in September 2011 – some 30% in the S&P 500 ago (yes, 30%!). Aside from being incorrect, bearish economic prognosticators fully admit that their expectations have little to do with what may happen to the equity markets in the future (as Bernanke’s unlimited QE has shown). Still, such admissions do not stop … Read more

Leucadia: Berkshire Light?

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After acquiring the remaining shares outstanding of Jefferies (JEF) a few months ago, Leucadia (LUK) has come into the spotlight. This under-the-radar holding company has been compared to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) in the sense that it owns several unrelated companies and uses the cash flows to invest in different businesses. However, calling the two firms similar is a bit of a misstatement given Berkshire’s enormous insurance operations, and a slightly different investing style. Unlike Berkshire, which has an enormous “elephant gun” able to acquire relatively large companies with ease (Berkshire also tends to concentrate on reliable, large cap companies with strong balance sheets), Leucadia concentrates on deep value in struggling or unloved companies and industries. Interestingly enough, the companies are … Read more

FAQ: Why Doesn’t the ‘Percentage Undervalued/Overvalued’ Match Up to the Actual Discount/Premium to Valuentum’s Fair Value Estimate of the Company?

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We view the intrinsic value of a firm as a range, not a single point estimate. So instead of us saying that a company is worth exactly $55 per share, for example, instead we’d say it is worth between $50 (low end) and $60 per share (high end) — think of this range as our margin of safety. We use a margin of safety due to the inherent uncertainty of predicting with absolute precision a firm’s future free cash flow stream — a firm’s future free cash flows determine our estimate of the company’s intrinsic value, and the future is not known yet. As a result, the ‘percentage undervalued/overvalued’ (as shown on our 16-page reports) is calculated by comparing the firm’s current price with the … Read more

FAQ: How Is Your Best Ideas Portfolio Doing This Year?

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At Valuentum, we task ourselves with a tall order. While most investment newsletters compare themselves to a market benchmark, we go one step further. We want to deliver positive returns to you, our subscriber, year after year, in addition to outperforming the market benchmark. Below, we outline a table that shows the outperformance we provided to our members since the time they joined.  So, for example, if you joined as a member on April 13, 2012 our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 3.8 percentage points of outperformance. Or, if you joined on July 13, 2011, our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 22 percentage points of outperformance. Importantly, did you know that, according to Advisor One, only 13% of hedge funds are beating the S&P … Read more

Jamie Dimon Agrees; Housing Is Back

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Since the turn of the year, the housing market has been on the mend (click here for when we spotted the recovery), and homebuilders have been posting excellent results as of late. At the end of July, we more definitively announced that we thought the US housing market was back, and subsequent results and commentary have strengthened our thesis. We plan to take a close look at our valuation models of a number of homebuilders today, but we don’t expect any companies’ share prices to fall outside of their updated fair value ranges, which we plan to release this afternoon. During the past several months, many US major banking institutions and mortgage originators have been posting fantastic results. Both JP Morgan Chase (click ticker … Read more

Visa Continues to Deliver Top Notch Results

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Wednesday afternoon, payment processing giant Visa (click ticker for report: ) reported strong fourth quarter earnings and provided a bullish outlook for fiscal year 2013. Excluding the impact of one-time litigation charges, the firm earned a better-than-expected $1.54 per share, growth of 21% year-over-year. Total revenue surged 15% during the quarter to $2.7 billion, which also exceeded consensus expectations. New CEO Charlie Scharf takes the helm today while Joseph Saunders transitions to chairman and then eventually to retirement. Saunders leaves Scharf, the former head of retail financial services at JP Morgan Chase (click ticker for report: ), with lofty forward expectations. The firm’s guidance calls for low double digits revenue growth, 60% operating margins, high-teens earnings per share growth, and … Read more

JP Morgan and Wells Fargo Report Third Quarter Results

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Friday morning was big for banks, as both JP Morgan Chase (click ticker for report: ) and Wells Fargo (click ticker for report: ) reported third quarter results. Earnings for JP Morgan surged 37% year-over-year to $1.40 per share, which was much higher than the consensus expectation of $1.24 per share. Revenue grew 6% year-over-year to $25.9 billion, slightly better than consensus expectations. Earnings at Wells Fargo came in at $0.88 per share, a penny better than consensus estimates. Revenue fell $100 million sequentially to $21.2 billion, which was a little over $200 million short of consensus expectations. Though net interest margins slipped at both banks, the third quarter showed impressive results from the mortgage business. Mortgage originations at JP … Read more