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Focus on a Rules-Based Process Not on Short-term Outcomes

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By Brian Nelson, CFA …you should be skeptical of what investment advice you use and who your sources are. (Investment gurus) give…seemingly solid advice in (their) columns, but (as) it turns out (their) stock picking skills don’t translate so well into the mutual fund industry… …Part of the problem is that you have no idea what they’re actual track record is or the conviction they hold on each recommendation they put out there. The talking heads have no idea what your risk profile and time horizon are. There’s a huge disconnect between financial predictions you read about or see on TV and your personal circumstances. That’s why it’s so important to focus on a rules-based process instead of short-term outcomes. It … Read more

Thank you…

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Earlier this week, I received an email from a colleague and valued member of our services. I wanted to share it here for others to read. I haven’t included his name, but if he wants me to, I can add it in. It is filled with wisdom, experience and kindness. And it really made my year to read his words. The Valuentum community, I believe, is the best community of investors out there. Sir, if you do happen to read your own email on our site, we very much have appreciated your feedback, and we hope to continue to live up to your praises. We are dedicated, and our team has been rejuvenated by your words. … Read more

The Best Ideas for 2014 and Beyond: Part II

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A portion of this article is excerpted from the January 2014 edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter. Valuentum has two actively-managed portfolios: a Best Ideas portfolio and a Dividend Growth portfolio. Each portfolio has different goals and strategies. The Best Ideas portfolio seeks to find firms that have good value and good momentum characteristics and typically holds them from a Valuentum Buying Index rating of a 9 or 10 to a rating of a 1 or 2. The goal of the portfolio is to generate a positive return each year and to exceed the performance of a broad market benchmark. The Dividend Growth portfolio seeks to find underpriced dividend growth gems that generate phenomenal levels of cash flow and have … Read more

Three Reasons Why Dividend Growth Investors Are Quite Savvy

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A version of this article appeared on our website on October 1, 2013. There are many different approaches to investing, but we think dividend growth investors are quite savvy, especially when they combine a rigorous dividend growth process in the form of the Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratio with the valuation rigors behind the Valuentum Buying Index. Let’s examine the three reasons why we think dividend growth investors are a smart group in the age of ultra-low interest rates. #1. Fool Me Once, Shame on You…Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me Today’s dividend growth crowd has seen enough. First, they witnessed the dot-com bubble (1997-2000), a period in stock market history where firms’ stock prices soared in some cases as a result … Read more

PC Shipments Expected To Stabilize

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According to data released by the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker on December 2, personal computer (PC) shipments are now expected to drop more than 10% in 2013, slightly below the previous projection of -9.7%. Though 2013 will be the most severe yearly contraction on record, this news wasn’t the key takeaway. Instead, it was expectations for stabilizing demand by 2015 that provided a shot of optimism to the PC supply chain (see image below). Image Source: IDC The commentary provided by IDC was not terribly exciting, but market expectations are closer to the PC going the way of the dodo than stabilizing at just over 300 million units (roughly 2008 levels). We continue to believe that … Read more

Microsoft Sets Six-Year Price High; You Knew It Was Going to Happen

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Microsoft (MSFT) continues to be a no-brainer. The firm has robust free cash flow, a rock-solid balance sheet, and significant revenue and earnings growth potential. As we continued to pound the table on shares for much of the past two years—the company is one of the LARGEST weightings in the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter—others said Microsoft was “dead money” and would continue to be. The firm’s share price hit a six-year high Friday. Thursday after the close, the software giant exceeded top- and bottom-line expectations in its fiscal first quarter by a significant margin. Revenue jumped 15.8%, while diluted earnings per share leapt nearly 17%. These are staggering growth figures for a firm that is supposed to be … Read more

Intel Delays Broadwell; Stay Focused on Tremendous Dividend Strength

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On Tuesday, Intel (click ticker for report: ) reported solid third-quarter results that were overshadowed by a minor one-quarter delay in the release of its next-generation Broadwell chip. We’re not reading too much into the modest setback and continue to be happy with the firm’s excellent cash-flow generation and significant financial flexibility. During the period, Intel generated $5.7 billion in cash from operations (42% of sales) and about $2.8 billion in free cash flow (nearly 21% of revenue). These are staggeringly positive numbers for a firm dealing with a PC market that is in secular decline. Intel is also sitting on $19 billion in total cash investments (cash, short-term investments and trading assets) relative to $13.2 billion in long-term debt, … Read more

Intel’s Second Quarter: Soft But Not Panic-Worthy

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Best Ideas and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Intel (click ticker for report: ) reported lackluster second quarter results Wednesday afternoon. Revenue declined 5% year-over-year to $12.8 billion, falling short of consensus estimates. Earnings-per-share also came in below consensus expectations, falling 28% year-over-year to $0.39. Even though earnings dropped, the firm still generated $2 billion in free cash flow, equal to about 16% of revenue. Intel’s personal computer (PC) revenue declined 7% year-over-year to $8.1 billion and remains the firm’s largest segment by a wide margin. We think the issue in PCs is secular rather than company specific, but there are signs that suggest the PC market may finally be bottoming. Though international PC shipments fell 11% year-over-year during the … Read more