CBA

Brace for More Volatility

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Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August of last year. The markets have broken through key support levels, and now support has become resistance. Volatility remains heightened since the low-vol ETN blew up in February. This article is the introduction to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter, both of which will be released today due to the holiday January 1. By Brian Nelson, CFA Markets are facing big pressure on the trading session January 3. There’s more to the story than rising interest rates. There’s more to the story than the US-China trade war. There’s more to the story than concerns about the political environment. Price-agnostic (indexing and quant) trading, as I outline in … Read more

The Free Cash Flow Shortfall in the Master Limited Partnership Space

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With the recent acceleration of master limited partnership simplification transactions, we find it appropriate to revisit the internally-generated cash flow shortfall present throughout much of the space. The table provides a breakdown of traditional free cash flow (cash from operating activities less all capital spending) relative to distributions paid, as well as a measure of the elevated financial leverage often found within the group. In case you missed it, “Nearly 60 Distribution Cuts Later, We Maintain Our View on the Hazards of the MLP Business Model.” By Kris Rosemann We think it is worth noting that the two entities at the top of this list in terms of traditional free cash flow coverage of distributions paid have significantly reduced their … Read more

Master Limited Partnership Simplifications on the Rise

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  With the announcement of three separate master limited partnership simplification transactions on May 17 alone, we must revisit our thesis that the business structure may not be in it for the long haul. By Kris Rosemann At Valuentum, we continue to believe the master limited partnership (MLP) business model is at risk over the long haul, and recent news from the space only seems to support the notion that the MLP model we once knew may be fading more quickly than some had expected. If there is nothing inherently wrong with the structure of MLPs, then the rate at which simplification transactions are occurring would certainly be an alarming development, but we continue to point to factors such as … Read more

Nearly 60 Distribution Cuts Later, We Maintain Our View on the Hazards of the MLP Business Model

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Image Source: Brian Cantoni Valuentum has been highlighting the inherent risks associated with the master limited partnership (MLP) structure for some time now, but we are not alone in acknowledging the limited sustainability of such structures. Internal simplification transactions may only become more common moving forward as management teams seek to optimize the structure of their entities. Readers should continue to cast a skeptical eye on this business model. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Quite possibly, Valuentum made the “call of the century” when it outlined its warning on MLPs in June 2015, embedded in its Kinder Morgan (KMI) “call,” and more explicitly in September 2015, “Why the MLP Business Model May Be a Goner.” There was a … Read more

Objectivity in Analysis and the MLP Enigma

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about how financial statement analysis keeps analysts objective. He also goes into how the distribution yields of MLPs may not reflect underlying business dynamics. Nelson also explains an inconsistency in the use of financing that supports the idea that MLPs are using external capital market issuances to fund distributions. Running time: ~15 minutes.

MLP Speak: A Critique of Distributable Cash Flow

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–> Handout 1: Pitfalls of Distribution Yield Analysis (pdf) –> Handout 2: Linking P/DCF to Enterprise Free Cash Flow Valuation (pdf) Let’s talk about a controversial metric that is used in master limited partnership (MLP) reporting. Just how useful is it, and should it be allowed? By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s been a few years since the fallout in the prices of most master limited partnerships (AMLP), but to me, it still feels like yesterday. We continue to have many concerns about the longevity of the business models of MLPs, and we maintain our view that the operating structure will be challenged over the long haul. New equity and debt funding (issuance) continues to, in part, fuel the distributions of most MLPs, … Read more

3 Anomalies Across Pipeline Equities

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Kinder Morgan’s Credit Should Be Junk Status The corporate’s investment-grade credit rating does not add up. On a reported basis, adjusted for impairments, our estimate for Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) leverage is 7 times annualized first-half EBITDA, nearly a half turn greater than that of perhaps its closest peer Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), which is rated Ba2/BB/BB (Stable) by the credit rating agencies. That’s two full notches below the lowest level of investment grade and Kinder Morgan’s credit rating, despite Kinder Morgan’s dividend obligations being $350 million more during the first half of this year alone (~$750 million annualized) relative to Energy Transfer Equity, and its absolute level of debt standing above any other on this list. Kinder Morgan’s plans to … Read more