Member Articles

About the Fair Value Range

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Understanding the Fair Value Range and Why It’s Important FAQ: Why do you use such a wide fair value range for certain companies?   One of the most important concepts of the Valuentum methodology (and valuation in general) is the understanding that the value of a company is a range of probable valuation outcomes, not a single point estimate. Even well-seasoned stock analysts are guilty of saying that a company’s shares are worth exactly $25 or a firm’s stock is worth exactly $100. The reality is that, in the first case, the company’s shares are probably worth somewhere between $20 and $30, and in the latter case, the stock is worth somewhere between $75 and $125.   Why? Because all … Read more

Dividend Cushion Ratio Efficacy Undeniable

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By Kris Rosemann We weren’t surprised by Costamare’s (CMRE) ~66% cut in its dividend, and readers should have been on the same page. Prior to the cut, the firm registered a -1.5 Dividend Cushion ratio, well below the cutoff for consideration as a safe payout. We have long been concerned with the safety of the dividend, as the above chart depicts. Not only was the quantitative portion of our research spot on with respect to the risk in Costamare’s dividend, but the qualitative side of our research adequately reiterated our concerns. The headline of Costamare’s dividend report: Costamare should not be paying a dividend, in our opinion. Costamare is but one of many dividend cuts the Dividend Cushion ratio has … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 30

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending September 30. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Express (AXP): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. Artesian Resources Corporation (ARTNA): now $0.2283 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2249. AZZ (AZZ): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. BancFirst (BANF): now $0.38 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.36. Banner (BANR): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21. Calavo Growers (CVGW): now $0.90 per share annual dividend, was $0.80. Clacor (CLC): … Read more

Is OPEC For Real This Time?

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By Kris Rosemann On September 28, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an agreement to cut crude oil production levels for the first time since 2008. The cartel reportedly agreed to limit production of member nations to a range of 32.5-33 million barrels per day (bpd) while leaders met at the International Energy Forum in Algiers, Algeria. As would be expected following such news, the price of crude oil has bounced, bringing market sentiment surrounding energy-related stocks higher along with it. The proposed production could be a reduction of up to 750,000 bpd from OPEC production levels in the month of August, but how the group of nations will reach such a production cut has yet to … Read more

Deutsche Bank Another Example of Necessary Confidence in Banking Sector

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By Kris Rosemann Let’s walk through the situation with Deutsche Bank (DB) from mid-November through today. The “5 Cs of credit” — character, capacity, capital, collateral, and conditions — is a widely-followed framework and generally-accepted guideline for lending to consumers, but for corporate entities, we think another C is much more important: confidence. In almost every situation where a bank has encountered trouble, it has resulted from a loss of confidence in the sustainability of the entity as a going-concern. The loss of confidence could originate from counterparties, intermediaries, depositors or clients, or from any other core stakeholder. Lack of confidence typically spreads quickly. Quite simply, if the market does not have confidence in a banking entity, that banking entity will … Read more

Restaurant Traffic – What’s Going On?

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By Kris Rosemann What’s going on with restaurant stocks these days?  Sonic’s (SONC) announcement of preliminary results for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2016, ended August 31, has been the latest catalyst to drag the restaurant sector (BITE) lower due to it reporting “lower-than-expected traffic, reflecting lower consumer spending in restaurants and continued aggressive competitive activity.” Our newsletter portfolios have not been spared the pain as shares of Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Cracker Barrel (CBRL) have faced pressure since its fiscal fourth quarter report September 14, and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has suffered as a result of the weak data as well. Sonic’s report was not the first we’ve been hearing of slowing consumer … Read more

Valuentum Strives To Be the Gold Standard in Equity Research

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This article was originally published July 17, 2013. Valuentum’s Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio continue to exceed their respective goals, but the firm’s research on the mortgage REIT industry has put it in a class by itself. In this article, please find a graphic portrayal of its call on the mREIT industry. Maxim, KBW, RBC, Edward Jones, Seeking Alpha, Wunderlich, Citi, Evercore, and JP Morgan were all behind the curve. Will still more research shops come around? 1)    September 13, 2012. 2)    May 6, 2013. 3)    May 6, 2013. http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/05/06/mortgage-reit-funds-in-focus-jefferies-says-investors-underestimate-mreit-risks/ 4)    May 26, 2013. /20130526_1 5)    May 30, 2013. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11937184/1/mortgage-reit-sell-off-overdone-on-rate-fears-kbw-rbc.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO 6)    June 7, 2013. http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/agnc/currents/2 7)    June 24, 2013. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1515952-american-capital-agency-corp-book-value-resilience-in-the-face-of-rates-back-up 8)    July 8, 2013. http://www.analystratings.net/ratings/Downgrades/7-8-2013/ 9)    July 9, … Read more

General Mills a Reminder of the Dividend Growth Bubble

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By Kris Rosemann We have not been shy about our concerns with the current overheated state of the market, “A Kleenex? Consumer Staples Trading At Nosebleed Levels (August 2016)”: At arguably no time in the history of the stock market have investors been willing to pay so much for each unit of earnings to capture a dividend yield of just a few percentage points. Negative interest rates across much of the world have created this scenario. In many ways, the strongest business models have become some of the most risky stocks, to no fault of their own. What do the bulls say though — as long as everybody keeps buying these steady-eddy companies to capture yield, share prices will continue … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 23

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending September 23. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 8point3 Energy Partners (CAFD): now $0.2406 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2325. ALPS Cohen & Steers Global Realty Majors ETF (GRI): now $0.382421 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.312204. Ameris Bancorp (ABCB): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. ATN International (ATNI): now $0.34 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. Bank of South Carolina (BKSC): now $0.14 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. BIOQUAL (BIOQ): … Read more

Analyzing Procter & Gamble’s Exchange Offer

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By Kris Rosemann In July 2015, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Procter & Gamble (PG) announced it signed an agreement to merge 43 of its beauty brands with Coty (COTY) for an estimated $12.5 billion, “Procter & Gamble Continues Transformation Plan (July 2015).” Procter & Gamble announced September 1 its plan to complete the separation of 41 of the agreed upon brands—two others will have already been divested—via a Reverse Morris Trust transaction. Procter & Gamble will transfer the assets of the brands to a newly created Galleria Co before merging the subsidiary with Coty. The deal will be tax-free for shareholders that choose to participate for US federal income tax purposes. Procter & Gamble shareholders have the option to … Read more