XLV

A Meaningful Rate Hike? No Way

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Inflation? What inflation? Crude oil prices have been cut in half, iron ore prices have absolutely been pummeled, copper has seen better days, and the last time I checked the value of my house, it is still not up to the price I bought at. What inflation, I say? For those that may not be familiar with the so-called dual mandate of the Fed, here it is: “The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.” … Read more

Johnson & Johnson: Still a Solid Dividend Growth Pick

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Yesterday, a core holding in the Dividend Growth portfolio, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), reported fantastic third-quarter results. Sales of $18.5 billion advanced more than 5% compared to the third quarter of 2013. Domestic sales leapt 11.6%, while international sales were roughly flat, off less than 1%. The results were muddied by the divestiture of its Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics business. Worldwide, domestic and international operational sales growth, adjusted for the divestiture, came in at 8.4%, 14.8% and 3.1%, respectively. Net earnings, excluding special items, were $4.3 billion and $1.50 per share in the quarter, up 9.5% and 10.3% on a year-over-year basis, respectively. These are fantastic growth rates for a company of Johnson & Johnson’s size. The biggest driver behind the company’s … Read more

Performance of the Valuentum Buying Index

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Note: A more recent analysis of the Valuentum Buying Index rating system can be accessed at the following link: /Value_and_Momentum_Within_Stocks_Too Two separate studies have reinforced the efficacy of the Valuentum Buying Index, both as a portfolio optimization tool and as an idea generator. If you cannot view the video, please consult the transcript that follows. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  The studies referred to in this video can be accessed as follows: Why Valuentum Buying Index Ratings Matter: /20141003_1 Valuentum’s Performance on Seeking Alpha: /20141009 Please be sure to read the studies closely in addition to watching the video or consulting the transcript below. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I’d like to talk … Read more

Performance Update: The Valuentum Buying Index

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Note: A more recent analysis of the Valuentum Buying Index rating system can be accessed at the following link: /Value_and_Momentum_Within_Stocks_Too A version of this article was published October 26, 2013. By Brian Nelson, CFA We periodically update the performance results of the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), the stock-selection methodology that drives idea-generation within the Best Ideas portfolio. The academic studies of the Valuentum Buying Index can be accessed here (white paper) and here (AAII). The latest iteration of the performance, dated September 3, 2014, continues to showcase the strong sorting mechanism embedded within the investing framework, particularly when the index is coupled with qualitative oversight and portfolio management skill. Sorting winners from losers is what the Valuentum Buying Index has been designed to … Read more

Markets Collapse: Economic Sanctions on Russia, Argentina Defaults…Again

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Dow Jones falls over 300 points Thursday on Argentina default and economic sanctions on Russia. The very idea that we don’t know which hedge funds will be hurt by recent global economic activity, how leveraged these hedge funds are to global currencies and equities, and whether Russian president Vladimir Putin will respond in kind to economic sanctions means conservative investors are taking money off the table. Is it finally time to lock in profits after one of the best stock-market runs of all time from the March 2009 lows? First, the EU and US impose economic sanctions on Russia. Next, Argentina defaults on its debt for the second time in 12 years, bringing back memories of the infamous collapse of … Read more

Big Pharma Round Up

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Though much has been made about the patent cliff—shorthand for the expiration of the patents of a large number of drugs over a short period of time—we continue to believe that pipelines across much of the pharmaceutical space are flush with new drugs and therapies. Readers may have an individual favorite or two (or three) within the space (and there’s nothing wrong with that), but we think one of the best ways for investors to play the strong pipelines across the healthcare sector—and ongoing consolidation—is through the Health Care Select SPDR ETF (XLV), a holding in the Best Ideas portfolio. The ETF boasts Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and AbbVie (ABBV) as its top … Read more

Big News in Big Pharma

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Pfizer Held Talks to Acquire AstraZeneca “Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the world’s biggest drugmaker, held informal, now-discontinued talks with AstraZeneca Plc (AZN) about buying the London-based maker of asthma and heart drugs, said two people familiar with the matter… …The companies aren’t currently negotiating, said the people, who asked not to be identified. One said the talks happened several months ago and there are no plans to resume. The discussions were first reported yesterday by London’s Sunday Times, whose unnamed bank and industry sources said New York-based Pfizer made a tentative approach about a takeover valuing AstraZeneca at more than 60 billion pounds ($101 billion).” (Source: Bloomberg) To continue reading >> Valeant and Activist Investor Bill Ackman Pursue Allergan “Canada’s Valeant … Read more

Use a Margin of Safety in This High-Risk Market Environment

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“One major criticism that we always hear about value investing is “what’s your risk management, how do you know when you’re wrong”? Well, a great value investor gives himself a margin of safety, in other words you don’t have to know how much a fat person weighs to realize they’re overweight. Like John Keynes said “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” If you come to a conclusion that a $100 stock is trading at $65, even if you’re overestimating the stock’s value by 25%, at $81.25 there is still plenty of room for the stock to appreciate to $100.” — The Irrelevant Investor The markets faced some tough sledding this week, with the S&P 500 (SPY), … Read more

Highlighting the Fed’s Statement Regarding Asset Purchases

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<< Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Release Date December 18 Release Reproduced Below: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, … Read more