UTX

House Defense Appropriators Ignore Sequestration

by

To download the 155+ page fiscal 2014 Defense Appropriations bill, please click here. On Tuesday, the House Appropriations Committee released the subcommittee draft of the fiscal year 2014 Defense Appropriations bill. The bill provides for $512.5 billion in non-war funding, an amount that completely ignores the level that would be caused by automatic sequestration spending cuts (to the tune of over $28 billion). The House’s proposal is also $5.1 billion below fiscal 2013 levels and $3.4 billion below President Obama’s request. In any case (whether the bill in current form is implemented or if sequestration takes hold and further spending cuts are put in place), the trajectory of defense spending for fiscal 2014 relative to fiscal 2013 is down. The … Read more

Boeing Keeps Raking in Aircraft Orders

by

Boeing (click ticker for report: ) updated its ‘Orders and Deliveries‘ page on its website this week, and we were pleased to see a nice uptick in orders. We keep a close eye on commercial aircraft orders as the pace remains a key driver of sentiment within the aerospace industry, even though Boeing and Airbus are effectively “sold out” for at least the next 12 months. According to the disclosure, the plane-maker has booked roughly 428 net orders through May 21 of this year, which puts the aerospace giant well on its way to achieving a book-to-bill north of 1 (signaling backlog expansion). Though our positive thesis on the aerospace supply chain–AAR (AIR), Astronics (ATRO), Rockwell Collins (COL), HEICO (HEI), Hexcel Corp (HXL), Precision Castparts (PCP), Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), … Read more

United Technologies Looks to a Strong 2013 After a Transformative 2012

by

United Technologies (click ticker for report: ) posted mixed fourth-quarter results as it ended what we’d describe as a transformational year. The company scooped up aerospace supplier Goodrich and a larger stake in International Aero Engines (IAE) during 2012, two moves we applaud as both increase the firm’s exposure to a burgeoning commercial aerospace delivery advance in coming years. Sales during the quarter jumped 14% from the prior-year period, though organic expansion was flat. The company’s adjusted segment operating margin came in at 13.3%, roughly 200 basis points lower than last year’s quarterly mark. Earnings per share in the quarter dropped 27% from the same period a year ago, but after adjusting for restructuring items, profits fell just 9%. Free cash flow, … Read more

Bottom in Sentiment Has Been Reached in Boeing’s 787; Orders for Planes Surge at the Airframe Makers

by

What a wild ride it has been for Boeing (click ticker for report: ) in the past few years. In a move widely applauded for choosing to build the incredibly efficient, mostly-composite, revolutionary 787 Dreamliner (instead of a gargantuan super-jumbo like the double-decker Airbus A380), the engineering, development, and production of the plane has been filled with more than its share of costly problems. Not only was the plane delayed at least a half dozen times during the engineering and development of the aircraft to first flight, but the company is dealing with highly-publicized “teething” pains now that the plane is in service. This morning, Europe, Japan and India have joined the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in grounding the … Read more

Alcoa’s Guidance Bodes Well for Aerospace

by

Industrial stalwart Alcoa (click ticker for report: ) reported solid fourth quarter results and relatively optimistic 2013 guidance. Revenue exceeded expectations, falling 2% year-over-year to $5.9 billion. Earnings, after excluding several one-off items, were $0.06, roughly in-line with consensus estimates and favorable compared to the same period a year ago. Upstream products continue to feel the pressure of weaker commodity pricing, which has obviously negatively impacted earnings. However, the company has been able to lower its position on the cost curve, leaving it with considerable leverage to the upside in the event of price appreciation. Though upstream revenue remains mostly weak (even with favorable supply/demand dynamics), Alcoa continues to drive strong earnings from its midstream and downstream products, particularly in … Read more

Fiscal Cliff Averted; Aerospace Rallying

by

After a volatile December, two of our favorite aerospace names, Astronics (click ticker for report: ) and EDAC Technologies (click ticker for report: ), are rallying significantly after a deal was finally reached to avert the fiscal cliff. Precision Castparts (click ticker for report: ), which had steadily moved higher during the fiscal-cliff ordeal thanks to optimism surrounding its planned acquisition of Titanium Metals (TIE), is also seeing strength today. We assumed both profit taking and overblown fears of defense cuts were the culprit behind the increased volatility, and it seems as though that could be the case. We continue to see substantial upside at these firms thanks to the massive, multi-year commercial aerospace backlogs of the large airframe makers. Our Best Ideas portfolio … Read more

The Valuentum Dividend100 Publication; A Must-Have For Any Income Investor

by

Dividend investors literally have thousands of income stocks to choose from. So what are they to do, and where can they go for the most trusted forward-looking opinions on dividend growth and safety? That’s the question we seek to answer with our ValuentumDividend100 publication. In this document, we showcase the top 100 high-quality, dividend growth gems within our coverage universe. Whether you’re looking to build a portfolio consisting of high-yielding, dividend-growers or simply seeking to augment it with a few income gems, the Valuentum Dividend100 is an essential resource for any income investor. We outline some of the key components of our Dividend100 publication below, and explain how you can get the most from each of one Sign Up for … Read more

You Are Ahead of the News As a Valuentum Member

by

Remember When We Said Economic Prognosticators Were Off Their Rockers? From the September 2012 edition of our Best Ideas Newsletter (see page 2), released September 15, 2012: “Could you imagine if you had listened to bond-king Bill Gross (please note he is not the equity king), Marc Faber (author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report) or the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which called for a recession in September 2011 – some 30% in the S&P 500 ago (yes, 30%!). Aside from being incorrect, bearish economic prognosticators fully admit that their expectations have little to do with what may happen to the equity markets in the future (as Bernanke’s unlimited QE has shown). Still, such admissions do not stop … Read more

FAQ: Why Doesn’t the ‘Percentage Undervalued/Overvalued’ Match Up to the Actual Discount/Premium to Valuentum’s Fair Value Estimate of the Company?

by

We view the intrinsic value of a firm as a range, not a single point estimate. So instead of us saying that a company is worth exactly $55 per share, for example, instead we’d say it is worth between $50 (low end) and $60 per share (high end) — think of this range as our margin of safety. We use a margin of safety due to the inherent uncertainty of predicting with absolute precision a firm’s future free cash flow stream — a firm’s future free cash flows determine our estimate of the company’s intrinsic value, and the future is not known yet. As a result, the ‘percentage undervalued/overvalued’ (as shown on our 16-page reports) is calculated by comparing the firm’s current price with the … Read more

FAQ: How Is Your Best Ideas Portfolio Doing This Year?

by

At Valuentum, we task ourselves with a tall order. While most investment newsletters compare themselves to a market benchmark, we go one step further. We want to deliver positive returns to you, our subscriber, year after year, in addition to outperforming the market benchmark. Below, we outline a table that shows the outperformance we provided to our members since the time they joined.  So, for example, if you joined as a member on April 13, 2012 our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 3.8 percentage points of outperformance. Or, if you joined on July 13, 2011, our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 22 percentage points of outperformance. Importantly, did you know that, according to Advisor One, only 13% of hedge funds are beating the S&P … Read more