USO

Video: Nelson’s Active Management Theorem, Poker and “High Society,” Inertia and the Value-Growth Conundrum

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson details his simple new theorem of the stock market that may change everything you believe. Nelson explains using poker as an example, and he goes on to caution about the concept of inertia, and how investing has somehow transformed into a “game” — if investors truly believe there are ‘value’ and ‘growth’ stocks. A must-watch intrigue. Running time: ~11 minutes.

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Robert Shiller On Indexing

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Robert Shiller on what worries him about passive investing from CNBC. “The problem is that if you are talking about passive indexing, that is something that is really free-riding on other people’s work. So people say, ‘I’m not going to try to beat the market. The market is all-knowing.’ But how in the world can the market be all-knowing, if nobody is trying — well, not as many people — are trying to beat it? … The strength of this country was built on people who watched individual companies. They had opinions about them. All this talk of indexes, it’s a little bit diluting of our intellect. It becomes more of a game. It’s a chaotic system. It’s kind of … Read more

Charting Cash Flow and Net Debt — The Oil Majors

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Traditional free cash flow generation has been strong for the oil majors through the first nine months of the year, but their balance sheets remain bloated with net debt. A few haven’t covered their cash dividends with free cash flow generation through the first nine months of 2017. Oil & Gas – Major: BP, COP, CVX, PTR, RDS, TOT, XOM

Will Texas Tea Hit $75 Per Barrel By Year’s End?

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Image Shown: The performance of the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) since its launch in August 2015. We’ve witnessed our fair share of fits and starts from energy resource pricing during the past few years, but could the global crude markets finally be rebalancing? Let’s talk about our thoughts on whether the outlook for energy resource pricing is improving in a sustainable way. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It may have taken longer than we initially anticipated, but crude oil prices (USO) appear to be on the verge of making a sustained recovery, though we always caution that sentiment can change on a dime, especially in the speculation-heavy commodity price markets. If you recall, we thought the … Read more

Best Ideas, Dividend Growth Newsletter Alerts and More

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Image Shown: The stock price performance of Boeing. Let’s take a look at recent news from newsletter portfolio holdings. We’re also parting with a “trade” we never should have made in the first place, and we’re letting go of one of our favorite restaurants in light of deteriorating technicals. This and more… By Brian Nelson, CFA Aside from predicting the ongoing inflation of the current equity market bubble in the US so far in 2017, we also thought crude oil prices (USO) would continue their recovery. Unfortunately, this hasn’t exactly worked out, and US crude oil prices have now entered a “bear market,” now falling below $43 per barrel. Are we saying that we know where crude oil prices are … Read more

First Quarter 2017 Comes To A Close

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“Be sure to continue to study the difference between price and value—just because a stock’s price has advanced doesn’t make it more expensive if the value of its enterprise has increased at a faster rate. If you understand this concept, you may be smarter than 99.9% of the investing population.” – Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA The first quarter of 2017 came and went. Including dividends, the S&P 500 (SPY) roared nearly 6% higher during the period thanks to solid gains from the land of technology, an area that we have liked for the longest time. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) advanced more than 10% during the period, and key technology holdings in the Dividend Growth Newsletter … Read more

Recent Material Fair Value Estimate Changes

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By Kris Rosemann Let’s begin this edition of ‘Recent Material Fair Value Estimate Changes’ with a discussion of some of the highest-profile names that made the list. If you require background reading on why we make changes to our valuation models, please see: What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change? We’ve raised our fair value estimates for two of the holdings in the newsletter portfolios, General Electric (GE) and Union Pacific (UNP). The sprawling and evolving industrial portfolio of General Electric is one of the more exciting portions of our portfolios, as the industrial giant boasts assets with authoritative positions in areas from the rapidly expanding Industrial Internet of Things to the rebounding energy services space. An increase in near-term … Read more

Image: Returns Following the Trump Victory

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To download the table for easier viewing, please select the link . Financials: Trump’s Treasury Secretary choice Steven Mnuchin wants to repeal most of the burdensome Dodd-Frank legislation. A steepening yield curve is helping banks and may drive improved net interest margins in coming periods. Goldman Sachs is ripping higher, leading the Dow’s charge.   Crude Oil: The world is moving to a better balance in supply/demand dynamics in the energy markets. OPEC is talking, has agreed to cuts, and expectations for improved economic growth are helping energy resource pricing. High-beta companies such as Continental Resources are rallying hard.   Energy: Capital spending cuts are bolstering free cash flow in the upstream space as energy resource pricing improves. Reduced regulations could help … Read more

This Oil Stock Is Surging!

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The Valuentum analyst team digs into recent developments in the oil and gas space and highlights one of the most leveraged ways to play rising crude oil prices. ~12 mins. If you cannot view the podcast below, please select the link here or view the transcript that follows. Tickerized for Valuentum’s oil and gas coverage universe. Chris Araos: Hello, this is Christopher Araos at Valuentum Securities, and today with us is Brian Nelson and Kris Rosemann. Today, we are going to talk about the outlook on oil and gas. Brian Nelson, CFA: Thanks Mr. Araos. I think to kind of set the stage for this conversation, we probably need to bridge the gap between what was truly the depths of … Read more

GE Positioning for Long-term Crude Oil Price Recovery

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Image Source: GE, Baker Hughes Newsletter portfolio holding General Electric has agreed to merge its Oil & Gas business with Baker Hughes. By Kris Rosemann General Electric (GE) is betting big on energy these days, even as orders continue to decline in its ‘Oil & Gas’ segment as a result of continued pressure on energy resource pricing (USO, NGAS). The industrial conglomerate on October 31 agreed to merge the business with energy services giant Baker Hughes (BHI) to create a powerhouse in the sector with estimated $32 billion in annual revenue. Although we’re very cautious on the deal based on the current operating environment and uncertainty in the energy markets–GE is expecting operating income in its Oil & Gas business … Read more