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Could the FCC Hurt Carriers’ Profits?

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Reports have surfaced that the FCC wishes to create a free, nation-wide WiFi network in order to facilitate web and cellular traffic. Though plans are only in the initial stages (and we are not jumping to any conclusions), the government could provide the US with a high-speed network at no cost, helping to put the nation on par with the Internet service achieved in several other countries. The news does not alter our fair value estimates for companies in our coverage universe, pending new details regarding probability and timing of implementation. Understandably, the companies that currently own spectrum and experience fantastic returns on networks are a bit upset about the possibility. The high margins achieved by wireless operators Verizon (click … Read more

AT&T Sells Just a Couple of iPhones…8.6 Million!

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Wireless carrier and cable provider AT&T (click ticker for report: ) announced satisfactory fourth-quarter results Thursday afternoon. Revenue grew just 0.2% year-over-year to $32.6 billion, which was stronger than the consensus had anticipated. Earnings, adjusted for significant expenses, jumped 10% year-over-year to $0.44 per share, slightly below consensus expectations. Perhaps the most significant read-through from the quarter came from AT&T’s iPhone (click ticker for report: ) activations. The company activated approximately 10.2 million smartphones during the fourth quarter. Out of those 10.2 million phones, 8.6 million were iPhones, or 84.3% of total smartphones. The activations might suggest the iPhone is gaining popularity in the US. Contrary to the mainstream spin, Apple is doing quite well in the smartphone space. Solid … Read more

Fiscal Cliff Averted; Aerospace Rallying

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After a volatile December, two of our favorite aerospace names, Astronics (click ticker for report: ) and EDAC Technologies (click ticker for report: ), are rallying significantly after a deal was finally reached to avert the fiscal cliff. Precision Castparts (click ticker for report: ), which had steadily moved higher during the fiscal-cliff ordeal thanks to optimism surrounding its planned acquisition of Titanium Metals (TIE), is also seeing strength today. We assumed both profit taking and overblown fears of defense cuts were the culprit behind the increased volatility, and it seems as though that could be the case. We continue to see substantial upside at these firms thanks to the massive, multi-year commercial aerospace backlogs of the large airframe makers. Our Best Ideas portfolio … Read more

Dividend Growth Portfolio Modeling Made Easy!

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Empowering Dividend Growth Investors Do you or your clients have a dividend growth portfolio? If so, this model is indispensable. It’s the best tool out there to account for the quarterly reinvestment of growing dividends after adjusting for future equity price growth in a portfolio setting. This model will allow you to better plan for your and your clients’ retirement needs and has unmatched functionality. Plus, this tool has easy-to-follow instructions and is customized to provide deliverable print outs for you or your clients. Your firm’s logo can be added, too. To purchase Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Retirement Portfolio Model (Calculator), please click here! The model, built by Brian Nelson, CFA, sets out to do much more than what other simple dividend … Read more

You Are Ahead of the News As a Valuentum Member

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Remember When We Said Economic Prognosticators Were Off Their Rockers? From the September 2012 edition of our Best Ideas Newsletter (see page 2), released September 15, 2012: “Could you imagine if you had listened to bond-king Bill Gross (please note he is not the equity king), Marc Faber (author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report) or the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which called for a recession in September 2011 – some 30% in the S&P 500 ago (yes, 30%!). Aside from being incorrect, bearish economic prognosticators fully admit that their expectations have little to do with what may happen to the equity markets in the future (as Bernanke’s unlimited QE has shown). Still, such admissions do not stop … Read more

FAQ: Why Doesn’t the ‘Percentage Undervalued/Overvalued’ Match Up to the Actual Discount/Premium to Valuentum’s Fair Value Estimate of the Company?

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We view the intrinsic value of a firm as a range, not a single point estimate. So instead of us saying that a company is worth exactly $55 per share, for example, instead we’d say it is worth between $50 (low end) and $60 per share (high end) — think of this range as our margin of safety. We use a margin of safety due to the inherent uncertainty of predicting with absolute precision a firm’s future free cash flow stream — a firm’s future free cash flows determine our estimate of the company’s intrinsic value, and the future is not known yet. As a result, the ‘percentage undervalued/overvalued’ (as shown on our 16-page reports) is calculated by comparing the firm’s current price with the … Read more

FAQ: How Is Your Best Ideas Portfolio Doing This Year?

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At Valuentum, we task ourselves with a tall order. While most investment newsletters compare themselves to a market benchmark, we go one step further. We want to deliver positive returns to you, our subscriber, year after year, in addition to outperforming the market benchmark. Below, we outline a table that shows the outperformance we provided to our members since the time they joined.  So, for example, if you joined as a member on April 13, 2012 our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 3.8 percentage points of outperformance. Or, if you joined on July 13, 2011, our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 22 percentage points of outperformance. Importantly, did you know that, according to Advisor One, only 13% of hedge funds are beating the S&P … Read more

AT&T Continues to Be a Cash Machine But Dividend Cushion Still Not Robust

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Telecommunications provider AT&T (click ticker for report: ) reported decent third quarter results Wednesday morning. Revenue was flat year-over-year at $31.5 billion, slightly shy of consensus estimates. Adjusted earnings per share grew 5% year-over-year to $0.62, which was a few pennies better than consensus expectations. Highlights of the quarter included free cash flow, a record $6.5 billion, and share repurchases, which totaled $3.8 billion. Wireless revenues grew 6.5%, driven by ARPU growth of 2.4% as consumers flock to smartphones, particularly the iPhone (click ticker for report: ) which accounted for 77% of smartphone activations (4.7 million units). Though smartphone activations were strong, net postpaid subscriber adds totaled just 151 thousand—well short of the consensus estimate calling for upward of 350 … Read more

Why We Continue to Like Apple and Microsoft

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In yet another negative blow to the PC market, Gartner reports that PC shipments fell 13.8% year-over-year during the third quarter. The big losers, yet again, were the PC giants Dell (click ticker for report: ), HP (click ticker for report: ), and Toshiba. Of course, the shocking loser was Apple (click ticker for report: ), which saw shipments fall 6% (considerably lower than the 25%+ drops of competitors), though market share increased 110 basis points to 13.6%. With the entire industry slumping, who’s to blame? Not surprisingly, we’re labeling Apple as the major disrupter in the PC market. Since the inception of the iPhone and subsequent iPad releases, computing has shifted more and more toward mobile consumption, with the … Read more