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Alphabet Launches Higher

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Image: Our fair value estimate of Alphabet has continued to lead the stock higher, and shares continued to deliver following the company’s third-quarter report, released October 28. By Brian Nelson, CFA Our long-term thesis and the top weighting of Google parent company, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is unchanged following the company’s fantastic third-quarter report, released October 28. During the period, revenue advanced 41% on a year-over-year basis as the company’s operating margin swelled ~8 percentage points to drive diluted earnings per share to $27.99, beating consensus by nice margin. We’re reiterating our $3,500 fair value estimate for shares. Here is what Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google had to say in the press release: … Read more

I Don’t Know How Lucky I Am, Do You?

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Image: The category of large cap growth (SCHG) has outperformed a 60/40 stock/bond rebalanced portfolio (VBIAX) by ~310 percentage points the past 10 years. Image Source: Morningstar. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone. I hope you all are doing well. It’s been a while since I wrote a personal message, but today, I thought it would be worthwhile to share my ever-evolving opinion on the world of financial markets. First, let me start with Facebook (FB). Hopefully, I set your expectations very low for the social media giant’s third-quarter report because this one is a long-term holding. Shares are dirt cheap, and while sentiment has moved against it, we’re going to “hold” strong in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (1). … Read more

Facebook’s Third-Quarter 2021 Results Better Than Feared

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Image: Facebook continues to put up impressive levels of free cash flow generation. We remain huge fans of the stock. Image Source: Facebook By Brian Nelson, CFA Expectations were low for Facebook’s (FB) third-quarter 2021 results, released October 25, following a read-through from news in recent weeks, including Snapchat’s (SNAP) weak third-quarter performance due to Apple’s (AAPL) iOS 14 changes and supply chain issues that may be slowing ad growth. Though Facebook’s third-quarter results still felt an impact from Apple’s iOS 14 changes and perhaps advertisers slowing some spending due to reduced product availability, the social media giant revealed that it remains a net-cash-rich, free cash flow generating powerhouse that continues to benefit from secular ad growth trends, and one … Read more

Putting the Environmental in ESG

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Valuentum’s ESG newsletter helps identify which stocks have strong ESG scores, and which ones come up short. Subscribe to the monthly Valuentum ESG Newsletter today by selecting the ‘Subscribe’ button below (12 editions, $1,000/year).   —– By Valuentum Analysts There is no single definition for ESG investing beyond the words that make up the acronym – Environmental, Social, and Governance. Investors looking at ESG may be doing so for a variety of reasons with a variety of different needs. But for every investor, a focus on ESG allows for a fuller consideration of the company, as a whole, as well as how that company impacts the 21st century landscape, as it relates to rewarding social responsibility by investing in companies … Read more

Markets Look Vulnerable, Adding “Protection”

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Image: The S&P 500 (SPY) and corresponding 50-day (green), 100-day (purple), and 200-day moving averages (red). We expect the SPY may have to “correct” to the 200-day moving average, or about $412-$413 per share before it finds its footing. Self-inflicted wounds the past several weeks have altered the market’s sentiment for the worse, and we don’t think the selling is done yet. To read the email, please click here. — Hi everyone: — Volatility has picked up, and options trading is all the rage. — The markets are under pressure again this morning, and we’re not wasting any time to add put option “protection” to both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The last time we added … Read more

Facebook’s Stock Sell Off Explained

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Image: Facebook’s free cash flow generation has been resilient in the face of prior iOS updates, and we think it will continue to grow rapidly in the future. Source: Facebook. By Brian Nelson, CFA We never like to see a 10-rated stock sell off, even if it’s up more than 30% so far this year and up over 140% since it registered a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index in January 2019, but that’s what we’ve been closely following with Facebook (FB). The stock experienced similar selling pressure during the summer of 2018, and while we’re huge fans of this underpriced tech giant in the long run, we think shares may face more selling pressure in the near term. Nonetheless, … Read more

The Investment Case for More Gender Diversity

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Image: The Impact Shares’ YWCA Women’s Empowerment ETF (WOMN) has trounced the S&P 500 since inception, while the SPDR SSGA Gender Diversity Index ETF (SHE) has bested the quantitatively-hailed small cap value ETF over the same time period. By Valuentum Analysts There has been a plethora of research over the years regarding the value of diversity on teams, in corporate boardrooms, and across asset management. The CFA Institute defines diversity as “the spectrum of human attributes, perspectives, identities, and backgrounds,” and notes that “the discussion around motivations for pursuing diversity in investment management often revolves around two main areas: ‘the business case for diversity’ (i.e., with more diverse perspectives, business outcomes will improve) and ‘because it is the right thing … Read more

Update on Best Idea Alphabet’s Self-Driving Taxi Upside

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Image Shown: Shares of Alphabet Inc Class C have boomed higher year-to-date as of early-September 2021. We see ample room for additional upside. By Callum Turcan We are enormous fans of large cap US equities because these entities then to be tremendous free cash flow generators, generally have net cash rich balance sheets, and their promising growth outlooks are underpinned by secular growth tailwinds. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) (GOOGL) fits the bill, and we include Alphabet Class C shares as a top-weighted idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Let’s provide some updates on the company’s self-driving taxi ambitions in this note concerning its Waymo spinoff. Self-Driving Taxi Upside Alphabet announced that it was spinning off Waymo, the company’s self-driving unit, … Read more

Facebook, PayPal, Apple Earnings Reports and More!

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Image shown: Qualcomm’s chart is looking mighty attractive. By Brian Nelson, CFA We continue to like Facebook (FB), PayPal (PYPL) and Apple (AAPL) as ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio following their calendar second-quarter 2021 reports, released recently. Vertex Pharma (VRTX) is our favorite way to play emerging CRISPR technologies through its partnership with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), and we were mighty pleased with Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holdings Republic Services (RSG) solid 8% dividend increase and Qualcomm’s (QCOM) impressive momentum. Facebook’s revenue soared 56% in the second quarter, and the company leveraged its operating margin to over 1000 basis points of year-over-year expansion. Both net income and diluted earnings per share more than doubled at the social media giant … Read more

The Valuentum Buying Index as a Differentiating Factor

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“No other research provider has approached mapping the market in this manner, making Valuentum’s research a differentiating factor behind your practice and a must-have for any investor.” — Brian Nelson, CFA  By Brian Nelson, CFA We have a huge day of earnings coming out today, and we’re excited about the upcoming releases at Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) after the close. Facebook (FB) is scheduled to report after the market close tomorrow, July 28. The important consideration, however, is how these reports impact our long-term forecasts, and we won’t be reading much into their share-price reaction to the reports, whether good or bad. Valuentum stock reports for Apple here (pdf), Facebook here (pdf), Alphabet here (pdf), PayPal … Read more